Team USA is a 15-point favorite in this afternoon’s Gold Medal game against Serbia, which seems high. The Americans eked out a 94-91 win over Serbia in the Group stage as Nikola Jokic carved up the USA for 25 points off the bench. Also consider that Team USA hasn’t won a game by more than 10 since a 113-69 dismantling of undermatched Venezuela.
Here are a few more reasons why Team USA can’t take Serbia lightly today:
- Serbia is a complete team. As good as Spain has been for so long, they had glaring holes in this tournament. The USA took advantage of the weak Spanish post defense and were able to keep Spain’s guards in check. Serbia has depth, versatility, size, multiple scorers and showed surprising defense toughness against Australia.
- Twin towers – the gargantuan Miroslav Raduljica, tattoos and all, reminds me of a Hell’s Angel. Or maybe two Hell’s Angel’s, one standing on the other’s shoulders. His massive presence impacts the game on both ends. But he possesses a surprising finesse game around the rim. It will be a much tougher matchup for DeAndre Jordan and DeMarcus Cousins. Meanwhile Jokic, though he hasn’t been in the starting lineup, can score inside and out and is one of the better passers in the tournament.
- Six-foot-five point guard Milos Teodosic is an offensive wizard. His no-look over-the-head pass in the first game against the US was legendary.
- Continuity counts. The group Team USA assembled is really just seven games and a couple exhibitions deep. Most of the Serbian team has played together for years, through Eurobasket and FIBA competitions. They know where their teammates are going to be on the court and their strengths and weaknesses.
- Bojan Bogdanovic is another guy who can get buckets and plays with no fear. When these games get tight and constant whistles are killing the flow, it’s important to have multiple guys that can score in a pinch. Team USA obviously has that luxury. But in a low-key way so does Serbia, with Bogdanovic, Teodosic, Raduljica, Jokic and even Stefan Markovic. Bogdanovic came up huge in Serbia’s tight quarterfinal win against Serbia but was fairly quiet against Australia. Keep an eye on him.
- Did you see how badly they waxed the Boomers, the former darlings of this tournament? Serbia blew the Aussies out from the word ‘go’, and played stifling defense to choke the scoring punch out of Delly, Patty and the boys. They’re hot, they’re fearless and have nothing to lose, already guaranteed their first Olympic basketball medal as an independent country.
I’m still going to take the USA in this one, but I do think it has a chance to be a classic. Serbia is a great story and their team is extremely likable and fun, and they won’t be scared. Team USA just better come ready to play from the opening tip.
Prediction – USA 94, Serbia 88