warriors

DotB Congratulates the Warriors and Kobe

Video ~ ~ dnathanfati ~ 1 Comment

What a night of basketball! The most memorable final day of the regular season in NBA history (with apologies to George Gervin and David Thompson) happened last night, with the Warriors breaking the all-time single-season wins record and Mamba going for 60 freakin’ points in his swan song. Kobe took 50 shots in his final game – could it be any other way? – but unleashed vintage clutch Kobe one last time, winning the game for the Lakers singlehandedly.

The Warriors’ magical season in numerical form:

73 – Wins

402 – Steph Curry threes

276 – Klay Thompson threes (most all-time by anyone not named Steph Curry)

54 – Consecutive home wins

56.3% – Team’s effective field goal percentage, best of all time

54 – Longest ever home winning streak

14-9.5-7.4-1.5-1.4-49% – The incomparable Draymond Green’s per game points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks and season field goal percentage

50.4-45.4-90.8 – Steph’s field goal, 3-point and free throw percentages, earning him placement in the elite 50-45-90 club (just Curry and Steve Nash), while scoring 30.1 points per game and making five threes per game

Insane. Kobe may have stolen the spotlight, but don’t kid yourself. This Warriors season will never be duplicated. Lukewarm take: with the pressure to break the wins record off and the team fully healthy, look for GSW to roll through the first two rounds of the playoff. I don’t see a let down happening. Beat the Spurs and Cavs, achieve another level of immortality.

Thanks to both the 2015-16 Warriors and Kobe for the memories…

 

Around the (NBA) World – Feb. 10, 2016

~ dnathanfati ~ 1 Comment

Named after a time-honored driveway shooting game, Around the World takes a look at notable items going on in and around the NBA universe.

A Classic in Dallas

Last night’s best game was Dallas-Utah, showcasing two teams struggling for position in the bottom half of the West playoff race. Utah won thanks to Gordon Hayward’s buzzer beater in OT, and his hair stayed perfect:

What got us to that seminal moment was a typical Dallas thriller. The Mavs tend to play exciting games at the American Airlines Center, with threes flying from all over the place. Dallas is 4th in the NBA in three point attempts per game at 27.7, and made 11-29 last night. Chandler Parsons led the way with 24 points which is encouraging even in a loss. There were many questions about Dallas post-DeAndre and the biggest one was around key players coming off injury. Would Parsons and Wes Matthews get back to form after major lower body injuries? Their play, mixed with Rick Carlisle’s motion and shooting offense, and Dirk being Dirk, is why the Mavs have remained in the playoff mix all season.

The hard-charging Jazz have won seven straight and taken advantage of the Kings’ freefall to finally take hold of a playoff spot. All season I’ve waited for Utah to round into form, but injuries to Derrick Favors and Rudy Gobert lowered their ceiling, and the lack of a replacement level point guard is still an issue. Favors and Gobert are back and Hayward has made a leap this season, averaging a career-high 20 points per game and coming through in the clutch like last night. The Jazz have to decide if any of the available point guards on the trade market fit their timeline and budget. But a Jeff Teague or Jrue Holiday could really bolster this team’s competitiveness in the first round. They have to push for the sixth seed to avoid the Warriors and Spurs in Round 1. It’s doable.

Another Curry-gasm, Briefly Interrupted

Anytime the Warriors are on the national TV schedule I know it’s going to be a late night for me, and last night was no different. With the Rockets coming to Oakland you knew the potential was there for anything: a 50-point GSW win, a 60-point Steph Curry game, the single game three point record going down in flames, a 160-150 type barnburner. The first quarter did little to dissuade that thinking, with Curry scoring 19 on 5-6 from three and the Warriors jumping out to a 42-27 lead. But then something interesting happened. For the next two quarters the Rockets found their long-hibernating pride. Rather than succumbing to Curry’s wrath, they decided to make life difficult. Suddenly Steph couldn’t get an open look at a three, and Trevor Ariza, Marcus Thornton, and even Ty Lawson did a great job of ball denial, forcing the rest of the Warriors to beat them. In typical Rockets fashion, they also slowed the game down with some Hack-A-Bogut, and the Warriors’ lead slowly dwindled. James Harden caught fire, scoring 18 points in the last eight minutes of the second quarter.

In the third, Harden continued to score and the Rockets D kept frustrating Curry and Klay Thompson. The Rockets took the lead for a couple stretches and the game was tied at 93 entering the fourth. You knew Curry would start the 4th on the bench, which meant the time was ripe for Houston to make their move. But then the Rockets rockets’d. With Curry draped in a towel on the bench, Andre Iguodala, Harrison Barnes and Shaun Livingston led the Dubs on an 8-0 run, Barnes scored 17 in the quarter and the Warriors never looked back. They’re too deep, too good at home and the Rockets don’t have four quarter discipline this season. It was fun to see Houston play to their potential if only for a couple quarters. It was scary to see how unbeatable the Warriors can be even on nights when Steph and Klay go ice cold for long stretches.

Also, this sequence was just beautiful basketball –

There Are No Winners in Sacramento

It seems like a long time ago now, but in mid-January the Kings were making headlines for jumping into the 8-seed. But the Kings can’t have nice things. They’ve subsequently dropped eight of nine, gave up 128 to Brooklyn, gave up 128 more to Boston in a laughably bad effort amidst George Karl firing speculation, and completed the 120-point trifecta after losing 120-100 to the Cavs. It seemed for the second straight year the Kings were firing a coach publicly before making it official. Karl was dead man walking, the team stopped even trying to guard anyone, and Boogie Cousins was sulking. Then yesterday news broke that the Kings would retain Karl as coach. What could go wrong there?

The Kings are led by a clueless owner, Vivek Ranadive, who fires coaches and makes strategic changes based on nothing rational; and his minority owners want an uprising.

Cousins has eventually undermined every coach but Michael Malone and Vivek has enabled him.

Rajon Rondo has had a resurgent season but called a gay ref a gay slur, so he’s definitely not a winner.

And Karl, as great of a career as he’s had, has failed this team. He’s tried to fit a square peg in a round hole. He wants to force whatever personnel he’s given to play his style – up-tempo, fast breaking, free wheeling defense. The Kings are playing with the league’s fastest pace even though they have Cousins, who plays best in a half court set, Rudy Gay, a traditional ball stopper and no true shooters other than Omri Casspi. This is not the Warriors. But Karl, who once said he’d have to think about whether he’d rather win playing someone else’s style or lose playing his style, is the latest example of coaching hubris getting in the way of team success. Gregg Popovich coaches to his players’ strengths. If the Spurs have two giants in the post, they’ll play slow and deliberate. If they’re undersized but filled with unselfish shooters, they’ll run and gun. Pop has been pretty successful over the years. Karl is the NBA’s Chip Kelly. Grab your popcorn for the rest of this shitshow of a Kings season.

All-Star Weekend Picks

NBA All-Star Toronto is almost upon us, and the contests are set. Here are my picks for the Slam Dunk, Three Point and Skills Contests:

Slam Dunk Participants – Zach LaVine, Aaron Gordon, Will Barton, Andre Drummond. This contest has taken its lumps over the years, as format changes and contrivances on the Blake Griffin Kia commercial have undermined the entertainment value. This year, LaVine is the odds-on favorite, and it seems like there should be more contestants. I don’t see Drummond doing much to dazzle the crowd, but Gordon is Plastic Man, so that could be exciting. Barton is the wild card. I’ll take LaVine to repeat as champion.

Three Point Participants – Stephen Curry, Kyle Lowry, Klay Thompson, James Harden, Chris Bosh, Devin Booker, JJ Redick, Khris Middleton. This event should be awesome. Curry looks to defend his crown but will face stiff competition from Redick, Thompson and keep an eye out for rookie Booker. I don’t see Harden, Bosh or Lowry making it very far but it will be cool to see them give it a try. At the end of the day it’s 2016 and we’re talking about 3-point shooting, so I’ll take Curry, thank you.

Skills Challenge Participants – Patrick Beverley, DeMarcus Cousins, Draymond Green, Anthony Davis, Isaiah Thomas, Jordan Clarkson, CJ McCollum, Karl Anthony-Towns. A new wrinkle this year, as big men will compete in the challenge. It’s unclear whether there will be a big man winner and a small man winner, but I’ll make two picks here. I’ll go with Thomas and Draymond.

Injury Bummers

The Grizzlies were dealt a big blow yesterday with news that Marc Gasol will be out indefinitely with a broken foot. Currently the Grizz sit 5th in the West at 30-22, but Dallas, Houston and Utah could leap frog them with their best player sidelined. The Grizzlies weren’t going to go very far in the postseason, yet I have a soft spot for the grit n grind bunch, and it’s a treat to watch Gasol operate in the post. This is a shame.

Speaking of bummers, Jimmy Butler may have dodged a bullet by not doing any serious structural damage to his knee in a nasty fall at the hands of a Joffrey Lauvergne hack job. But he will miss 3-4 weeks as the Bulls are in the midst of a freefall in the East standings. Timing couldn’t be much worse, and Chicago is in danger of missing the playoffs in Fred Hoiberg’s first season. This team can’t escape the injury bug year after year. Derrick Rose is in and out of the lineup, Mike Dunleavy is finally returning after back surgery forced him out all season, and Joakim Noah is out for the year. Yikes.

Playoff Picture Coming into Focus

After this weekend’s All-Star break, there will be about 30 games left for each team in the regular season. The stretch run will determine who makes it in and who falls out of the bottom seeds of the playoff picture, but the top seeds are already solidified. In the West, Golden State, San Antonio, OKC and the Clippers seem locked in at 1-4. In the East Cleveland and Toronto have distinguished themselves as the top two seeds. It looks like Boston, Indiana and Atlanta will earn a spot. The Heat have a tough schedule but I’m betting they’ll hang on as well. That leaves two more spots, with Chicago, Charlotte, Detroit and maybe Washington vying for position. With the injury and chemistry issues in Chicago I will take Charlotte and Detroit at this point. A lottery pick may be the best thing for the Bulls at this point, anyway.

The 5-8 seeds in the West come down to the following teams: Memphis (30-22), Dallas (29-26), Utah (26-25), Houston (27-27), Portland (26-27) and Sacramento (21-31). I think Dallas grabs the five seed after the Gasol injury, Utah takes the six seed, Memphis hangs on for the seventh and Portland/Houston is a toss up for the 8. I want to take Portland since they’re such a more uplifting story than Houston this year, but the Rockets still have Harden and Dwight Howard, and may have a small run left in them.

Trade Deadline

I encourage readers to listen to Nate Duncan’s Dunk’d On Podcast for some great insights into what each team needs and may be willing to do going into the deadline. I will have more thoughts as we inch closer to the deadline. I’d like to wait until after the All-Star break to see where the standings are, and what injury situations look like, before diving deeper on potential trades. More coming soon.

Up & Down – Jan. 26, 2016

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Time for our first 2016 installment of Up & Down, a look into NBA teams, players, coaches, etc. that are trending one way or another. The scope of this effort will mostly take into account the month of January.

We’re getting into the time of the season where the contenders separate themselves from the pretenders, and teams figure out their true identity. Injuries are becoming more of a factor as minutes pile up, and certain stars are posting huge numbers after finding their rhythm. In an odd turn of events, two of the four conference finals coaches from last season have been fired, the second firing coming in the same week as a superstar breaking his hand punching an equipment guy. The NBA never disappoints!

Who’s Up?

The Unbelievable Golden State Warriors – A friend and I were discussing the Warriors this weekend, as we watched them toy with the Pacers in the fourth quarter. While Steph hit threes with his signature swagger attached and darted through the lane en route to circus baskets in traffic, and Draymond Green bent the laws of physics with cross court bounce passes, we mused how awesome it must be to be a Warrior right now. To be the best and know it. To be cocky and back it up. To put on a show for an adoring crowd as a matter of routine. It’s every dude’s dream. It’s also refreshing to see a team have so much fun playing a fun game.

The fun continued last night as the Warriors showed no mercy on San Antonio in what was billed as a clash of the titans. It turned out to be “boys against men” as Spurs coach Gregg Popovich said afterward. Indeed it was one regular season game, but the sheer dominance leaves one wondering if the rest of the season is just a formality before the Dubs’ second straight championship parade. My big question coming in was whose playing style would win out – which team would impose its will on the other? The Spurs bring size, suffocating defense and a slower pace than most teams. On paper they may have the horses to match up with Steph and Klay, and if they slowed the game down to a crawl Golden State may struggle manufacturing points in the half court. But it was clear the Warriors from the start the Warriors weren’t going to change their approach because of their opponent. They pushed the pace off every defensive rebound and even most Spurs makes, Steph or Shaun Livingston racing the ball up the court before the defense could get set. They forced 26 turnovers, turning those opportunities into quick buckets. Green baffled LaMarcus Aldridge, not allowing him to get comfortable in isolations. Kawhi somehow got lost in the shuffle. It was over after three quarters, with Steph scoring 37 of the Warriors 95 points to that point. It should be noted the Spurs came in giving up just 89 points PER GAME.

Before dominating the Spurs, the Dubs crushed the Cavs, Bulls and Pacers in rapid succession. 73-9 is squarely in the crosshairs.

Boogie Cousins – The Kings’ big man is in the midst of an epic January. In his last 10 games, Boogie is averaging 36.6 points and 13.8 rebounds per game. More importantly the Kings are 6-4 in those games and clinging to the 8th seed in the West. It seems Cousins and George Karl have improved their relationship, and Boogie hasn’t melted down on the court yet in 2016. If he ever had justification to, it was last night against the Hornets. Cousins had 56 points and the Internet was rooting for 60. In double overtime, he secured a monster offensive rebound in traffic and made a monster move to the rack for two points. But noooooo. Frank Kaminsky took contact form Boogie and launched himself backward, drawing Cousins’ sixth foul. There’s no way that call should be made, especially not on a bang-bang hustle play in double OT with a guy angling for 60 points. Post men everywhere sympathize with Boogie. I tweeted that I was surprised he didn’t choke somebody out after that garbage call, but to his credit he didn’t make a scene and stayed put on the end of the bench (albeit flanked by an army of team personnel).

James Harden – The bearded enigma of the disappointing Houston Rockets (their new official team name) has some alive of late, putting together some amazing stat lines. It seems he’s played his way into shape after refusing to do so in the offseason. I’ve said it before and I’ll continue to say it, the league is a better place with Harden at the top of his game, stirring the pot literally and figuratively. On Sunday against the Mavericks, Harden put up 23 points, 15 rebounds, 10 assists and 2 blocks; he followed it up the next night against the Pelicans with 35 points, 11 boards and 8 dimes. Last week he had a ridiculous 33-17-14 in that foul-plagued game against the Pistons. Astounding numbers, and the Rockets are playing a bit better as a team, mostly on the back of the Beard.

Kemba & the Hornets – Much has been made of Kemba Walker’s all-around improvement this season. Once feared to be nothing more than a low percentage scorer that takes more off the table than he puts on, Walker has flourished this year with career highs in field goal percentage, true shooting percentage, three point shooting and PER. On January 18 he scored 52 on the Jazz, and four days later dropped 40 versus Orlando. After an early January swoon, the Hornets have won four of five and remain in the East playoff race. With reports that Michael Kidd-Gilchrist will return sooner than expected things are looking up in Charlotte, relatively.

Rookies! – As packed as the NBA is in star talent, the last couple draft classes haven’t been spectacular. This year, however, a new influx of potential superstars, future All Stars and quality role players is being injected into the mix. Karl Antony-Towns and Kristaps Porzingis have nearly unlimited ceilings as versatile and athletic big men that can shoot. They fit right into where the league is going and could push the game to different levels in the years to come. Jahlil Okafor and D’Angelo Russell are toiling on terrible teams but producing and offering hope for the near future. Emmanuel Mudiay has been up and down, while battling injuries, but he’s shown flashes of brilliance. Devin Booker is the one bright spot on the Suns and Justise Winslow is an improved jumper away from being a star on both ends. Others that are playing meaningful minutes as key role players for their teams: Myles Turner, Trey Lyles, Willie Cauley-Stein, Stanley Johnson, Cam Payne, Bobby Portis, Larry Nance Jr., Frank Kaminsky and Jonathon Simmons. In all, 11 first rounders are currently averaging over 20 minutes per game.

Nuggets – Denver is 17-28 and likely not going to the postseason, but they’ve been pretty good! GM Tim Connelly was recently given a well-earned extension, after building a team that has Denver’s prospects looking much better than expected in short order. The Mudiay pick was a good one, he’s found diamonds in the rough in Nikola Jokic, Gary Harris, Will Barton and Jusuf Nurkic, and the bet on Danilo Gallinari is paying off. With a sharp coach in Mike Malone, the future is bright for the Nugs.

Kings – Mostly covered in the Boogie section, George Karl’s team is coming together against all odds. It should be noted that Rajon Rondo is back to his expert distributing ways – 20 assists last night against the Hornets.

Who’s Down?

Blake Griffin – First he tore his quadriceps, then he saw his team actually play better on the court, going 12-3 since his injury. Then the dreaded “undisclosed team-related incident” left him with a broken hand that will force him to miss 4-6 more weeks of action. News trickled out today that the incident was actually a fight with a team equipment staffer that started in a restaurant and spilled outside, where Griffin punched the man at least once, breaking his own hand. Now I’m not here to judge, as I have suffered multiple “boxer’s fractures” due to fisticuffs. But with the team releasing a statement that the behavior won’t be tolerated and that they’re conducting an investigation with the NBA, Blake has earned himself a place in the Who’s Down section, to be sure.

Suns – Since Eric Bledsoe went down for the season, they’ve completely fallen apart on the court, fired two assistant coaches, killed most of Markieff Morris’ trade value and saw their owner go on an anti-Millennial tirade. Coach Jeff Hornacek doesn’t really seem like he wants to be there anymore, yet he may not be fired anytime soon. Once a playoff hopeful, they are headed for one of the worst records in the league. Just a weird, toxic situation.

Cavaliers – Though the clear favorite in the East, Cleveland was beaten by the Spurs and demolished by the Warriors, leading to David Blatt’s much-ballyhooed firing. On the heels of the coaching change, word started trickling out from reporters like Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo! that LeBron James and Rich Paul had orchestrated Blatt’s fate since the beginning of James’ return to Cleveland. GM David Griffin is between a rock and a hard place, juggling the unprecedented power of his star player with the volatility of owner Dan Gilbert. Respected and accomplished coaches like Rick Carlisle and Gregg Popovich have fired shots at the Cavs hastily ousting Blatt. It seems replacement Tyronn Lue was not James’ first choice (he wanted Mark Jackson of all people) and Lue’s first game was a lopsided loss to Chicago. Problems with Kevin Love’s fit and Kyrie Irving’s ball-dominance and lack of defense continue to hound the team, even as they remain atop the East.

Bradley Beal – The talented 2-guard in Washington just can’t stay on the floor. He’s played just 22 games this season due to more soft-tissue injuries. He’s never played more than 73 games in a regular season. And now he’s suffered a broken nose and concussion thanks to a Marcus Smart elbow, which will force him to miss more time. With his free agency impending, suitors may be scared away by his fragility. Meanwhile, John Wall is left to keep Washington afloat by himself. Their playoff prospects are dimming.

Perpetually Both Up & Down

Bulls – What I imagine the barroom conversations are like in Chicago…

“Wow, the Bulls won six straight in late December / early January? They might be coming on finally…oh never mind they just lost four of five. They suck.”

“Jimmy Butler scored 40 in the second half, in Toronto!? JIMMYYY!”

“They needed OT to beat the Sixers? Oh but Jimmy Butler had 50 points so that’s cool. JIMMYYYY BUCKETS!”

“They only scored 77 against the Mavericks? At home? Nice new offense Hoiberg. We never shoulda fired Thibs!”

“Warriors killed them, OK, but the Celtics? Terrible. I bet the Cavs will kill them tomorrow, even if they have da team mascot coaching them.”

“Da Bulls killed the Cavs! D-Rose is playing like his old self, getting to the rim, they said it on TV and everything! 1-seed here we come!”

“84 points and a loss at home to the Heat? What the? At least Derrick is looking goo…what’s that, D-Rose left with another injury? Pussy…”

Shifting Conference Tectonics as 2016 Begins

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Welcome to 2016, loyal DotB readers!

The first two months of the season are in the books and I’m here to kick off 2016 with a deep dive into the two conferences, followed by a Power Rankings level-set. I will examine where I was right at the start of the season and eat a large plate of crow for all the teams I guessed wrong on. Each year teams surprise us with out of nowhere starts and unexpected falls from grace but this year is especially filled with upheaval. It’s part of what makes the league fun to follow and keeps us on our toes. To wit, I am in a four-man win total “fantasy” league and I thought I staged a coup with my draft picks in the preseason. Those picks were OKC, Houston, Washington, Detroit, Milwaukee, Denver and Utah. Yikes. Thanks to the Rockets, Wiz, Bucks and Jazz I am in dead last as we start 2016.

Perhaps the biggest story of the first two months for me is the shifting balance of power in the conferences. For years I’ve been fascinated with the West’s consistent dominance and curious as to how one conference can stay in power for so long. However, though the top three teams in the NBA all reside out West, the bottom falls out quickly in that usually loaded conference. It’s likely that this season the West will have two playoff teams under .500, a dubious feat that the East had cornered the market on in recent years. You have to go back to 1996-97 for the last time the West fielded a below-.500 playoff participant (there were actually three that year!). Last season’s 8-seed (New Orleans) had 45 wins and the year before that Dallas finished eighth with 49.

So it begs the questions: is this just a down year that the West was long overdue for, a blip on the radar that will right itself quickly? Or is this a sign of a changing of the power structure in the NBA? I’ll look at it through a few prisms – Superstar Arms Race, Second-tier Stars and Randomness.

The easiest way – outside of win/loss records – to determine prowess in the NBA is star power. The way that teams acquire stars (mostly) is through the Draft. So I decided to look at recent Drafts to see if any patterns emerged that have hurt the West and empowered the East.

By and large, after the year LeBron, Bosh and Wade entered the league (2003-04) up until 2009, the West did a better job of getting superstars through the draft, which is a key reason behind its continued big brother status. Here are a few names you may be familiar with: Chris Paul (’05, New Orleans), Blake Griffin (’09, Clippers), Kevin Durant (’07, Sonics/OKC), Russell Westbrook (’08, Sonics/OKC), Steph Curry (’09, Warriors), James Harden (’09, OKC), Lamarcus Aldridge (’06, Blazers via trade).

Since the 2010 Draft, the West has continue to add bona fide and/or potential superstars like Demarcus Cousins (’10, Kings), Klay Thompson (’11, Warriors), Kawhi Leonard (’11 Spurs via trade), Damian Lillard (2012), Anthony Davis (2012), Draymond Green (2012), Andrew Wiggins (2014) and Karl Anthony-Towns (2015).

Here’s how the East has done since 2010:

’10 – John Wall, Paul George

’11 – Kyrie Irving, Kemba Walker, Jimmy Butler

’12 – Bradley Beal, Andre Drummond

’13 – Giannis Antetokounmpo

’14 – Jabari Parker

’15 – Kristaps Porzingis, Jahlil Okafor

I’d take Boogie, Klay, Kawhi, Dame and AD in a heartbeat over the East’s top five drafted stars since 2010 (with Draymond off the bench – wow). So even though the East done a better job in the last five years through the Draft, it still lost ground in the Superstar Arms Race with the West. This would seem to point to 2015-16 being an aberration, rather than the beginning of a decline for the West. It’s a superstar-driven league.

The East did, however, seem to add more Second-tier Stars (guys like Beal, Walker, Giannis) since 2010. That may be a function of continually bagging more high lottery picks. Each conference sends seven teams to the lottery each year, but the teams with the worst records have a better chance at picking high in the top 10. Since 2008, the East had 44 top 10 picks, to the West’s 36. That has to impact overall roster depth in due time. I combed through the players picked in those draft since ’08 and – admittedly somewhat subjectively – tallied up how many of those lottery picks are impactful NBA players in 2016. Thirty-six impact players from the last eight drafts reside in the East, while just 28 play in the West. This would tend to suggest that the East has gotten deeper if not necessarily more star-studded in recent years. This line of thinking seems to fit teams like Boston, Charlotte, Orlando, Atlanta, Detroit and Toronto – all playoff-contending, over-.500 East teams for much of this season that don’t boast many huge names on their rosters. Meanwhile, such star-led teams in the West like Houston (Harden, Dwight Howard), New Orleans (Davis), Sacramento (Cousins), L.A. Lakers (Kobe) and Portland (Dame) have struggled at least in part due to lack of quality depth. My verdict here – the Second-tier Stars factor is real, and could continue to tip the scales East-ward. The current 2-10 seeds in the East may not be title contenders but they are tough on a nightly basis thanks to deep rotations and can all finish with winning records.

The last, by definition impossible to quantify measure, is randomness. Here are some random, quirky things that have made the East better in 2015-16 and/or the West worse…

  • Conglomeration of talent at the top of the West. Aldridge went to San Antonio in the offseason, effectively creating a super team in the Spurs and turning a 50-win Blazers team into Lottery fodder. The Warriors kept their loaded roster intact after a historic season. The return of the KD-Russ-Ibaka trio at full health has made OKC a powerhouse again. The Clippers have struggled some but still have one of the top starting 5’s in the NBA talent-wise.
  • Houston forgetting that it was basketball season. They’ve gotten a coach fired, had many on-court bickering matches and sport some of the worst (laziest) transition defense in the league. After a conference finals appearance, the Rockets are the most disappointing team in the league, yet will make the playoffs by default. Slated for 55 or so wins, they will be lucky to finish .500. Can’t wait for them to sleep through a Round 1 loss.
  • The Plague hitting New Orleans. A supposed shoo-in to build upon last season’s 45-win playoff team, they barely have enough NBA players most nights thanks to a rash of injuries.
  • Memphis got old, Phoenix imploded and the Kings, Nuggets and Blazers aren’t ready for primetime.
  • Injuries have disproportionately hit the West. Eric Bledsoe is lost for the year, the Nuggets and Pelicans are decimated, Mike Conley and Lillard have missed time. Even the 32-2 Warriors have been hit by injuries, not that it’s hurt them much.
  • Unlike most recent years, the East only has two doormats in Philly and Brooklyn. The Magic, Hornets, Pistons, Knicks and Pacers have graduated up a level or two thanks to improved coaching (Magic, Hornets, Pistons), a healthy Paul George (Pacers) and an influx of respectable talent (Knicks). As bad as Washington and Milwaukee have been compared to expectations, they can be tough on any given night.
  • Coaching performances. Stan Van Gundy, Frank Vogel, Brad Stevens, Mike Budenholzer, David Blatt, Scott Skiles, Steve Clifford, Eric Spoelstra and Dwayne Casey have done great jobs this year. They all coach teams in the East.

After considering these factors – a combination of great coaching, an uptick in roster depth and random cataclysm striking the West – I tend to conclude that the shifting in conference tectonics this year has been more a blip than a new world order. When it comes to the NBA I will always side with the Superstars, and there are just more of them out West. Besides, Golden State and San Antonio are miles ahead of anyone else in the league and OKC edges out Cleveland for No. 3 in my Power Rankings. So chances are the West will still wear the crown that matters when the season ends. The regular season crown is a good start for the East though as it fights for respectability, and I’m excited to see a much more balanced NBA going forward.

Here’s to a great new year of pro basketball, and my inaugural 2016 Power Rankings will be right up!

The NBA’s Growing Middle Class

~ dnathanfati ~ 2 Comments

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There’s something interesting going on in the National Basketball Association that would make Bernie Sanders proud. The middle-class is expanding rapidly. Expected top-tier teams are being taxed, so to speak, by injury, chemistry issues and the weight of high expectations. Meanwhile, projected bottom-feeders are rising above the poverty line in alarming numbers as talent has increased league-wide and rising teams are finding their identities.

I’ll caveat this all by pointing out that it’s still November. In two months the market may have corrected with the rich getting richer and teams showing unexpected promise may tumble. There’s plenty of time for last season’s cream of the crop to rise into the top conference seeds, aside from New Orleans and Brooklyn. But for the time being, class lines are blurry, traditional tiers are dissolving and ultimately it’s gotten really freaking hard to put together a Power Rankings.

The Warriors stand alone at the top. They are the Koch Brothers, Bill Gates and Trump sipping Brandy in the parlor room. The 76ers, Nets, Lakers and Pelicans occupy the bottom rung, foraging for moral victories. Just about everyone else falls somewhere in the widening middle class. There are 18 teams that are within two games of .500, either at, above or below the median win income.

This is a net positive for a league that has seen just 10 different champions in the past 35 years (Lakers, Celtics, Pistons, Bulls, Rockets, Spurs, Heat, Mavericks, Warriors, 76ers). Of course, that number will remain the same if Golden State continues its torrent through the league en route to a repeat championship. But taking the long view here, the more average to potentially good teams there are, the less predictable the season becomes and the potential for haphazard playoff surprises increases. This equals more fun, more fanbase hope and more general interest in the outcomes. Just look at what parity has done for the NFL.

Will this be a blip on the radar, or a continued pattern? Time will tell, but it does seem teams are getting smarter about roster construction and the value of draft picks. Bottom feeders in small markets like Detroit and Minnesota suddenly have a jolt of energy and identity. Of course, the jump in cap space could bring us back to a world dominated by Los Angeles, Boston, Miami and other big markets. Or it could create more chaos, as smaller market teams suddenly wake up with deeper pockets.

For now, let’s embrace the unpredictable and take a stab at the Power Rankings, with each team’s record listed and some words about their identity.

The 1 Percent

  1. Golden State Warriors (12-0) – Our elitist overlords.

Crony Capitalists

2. San Antonio Spurs (9-2) – Old money mainstays.

3. Cleveland Cavaliers (8-3) – Promising blue chip stock that has underperformed recently.

4. Atlanta Hawks (9-5) – New money, gets to sit at the table but no one considers them a threat to take over.

$30,000 Millionaires

5. Chicago Bulls (8-3) – Having an identity crisis. Are they a run and gun team? Well, they rank pretty low in points per 100 possessions. Do they lean on defensive principles from the Thibs era? Up and down on that side to say the least.

6. Dallas Mavericks (8-4) – The guru coach and grizzled veteran team led by an ageless German. I suspect the early success is superficial, and in a town where plastic people drive ’98 BMWs to give the impression that they’re wealthy, there’s solid team-city synergy here.

7. Oklahoma City Thunder (7-5) – Trying to stay afloat with KD injured and a horrible defense. Luckily they have Russ.

8. Los Angeles Clippers (6-4) – Chris Paul is banged up and maybe showing signs of serious decline? Classic case of nepotism over meritocracy in Paul’s absence.

Bernie Sanders’ Wet Dream aka The Massive Middle-Class

9. Phoenix Suns (6-5) – The frenetic pace, dual point guard threat team. Need more shot-making, though Devin Booker has been promising.

10. Toronto Raptors (7-6) – Fast starters that struggle to finish games. Defense is on the rise.

11. Miami Heat (6-4) – Another identity struggle. Dragic and Wade play drastically different styles, can Coach Spo figure out the right mix?

12. Boston Celtics (6-5) – The blue-collar everyman team that plays defense, runs and out-smarts opponents thanks to Brad Stevens.

13. Utah Jazz (6-5) – Defense, defense, defense. A team that dictates pace out of necessity and needs more consistent guard play.

14. Washington Wizards (5-4) – The small ball team that can’t figure out how to defend bigs.

15. Indiana Pacers (7-5) – The Superstar (Paul George) and role players team.

16. Detroit Pistons (6-5) – The Reggie Jackson-Andre Drummond pick and roll death machine. Lack of shooting and bench hurts their ceiling.

17. Memphis Grizzlies (6-6) – Stagnation personified. The last days of grit n grind may be upon us.

18. New York Knicks (6-6) – All it takes is a healthy Carmelo and a freakish Latvian rookie to inject life back into the Big Apple.

19. Charlotte Hornets (6-6) – Raining threes, constant attacking and pace. The Hornets are playing the Rockets model better than the Rockets.

20. Orlando Magic (6-6) – The Young, Exciting Talent & Hustle Squad. Will lose more close games than they win due to inexperience but all their games seem to be watchable.

21. Denver Nuggets (6-6) – Another surprise riser. Michael Malone has them believing; love the play of Gallo and Mudiay.

22. Minnesota Timberwolves (5-7) – Hard pressed to find a better pair of under-21 anchors on the same team in recent memory. Andrew Wiggins and Karl Anthony Towns make this team must-see TV.

23. Houston Rockets (5-7) – 1-0 after Kevin McHale’s firing, but it took a miracle three to force overtime against Portland. Terrible body language, pathetic defense and the shots aren’t falling. C’mon Beard!

24. Milwaukee Bucks (5-6) – Their defense made them dangerous a year ago but it hasn’t showed up this season. Offensively they look good and Jabari Parker keeps getting better. Work cut out for them to make it back to the playoffs.

The Proletariat

25. Portland Trail Blazers (4-9) – You knew it’d be tough with all the personnel losses they endured, but Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum have been electric on offense.

26. Sacramento Kings (4-8) – Their breadwinner, Demarcus Cousins, can’t be counted on due to injury and suspension. Pleasant surprise that Rajon Rondo has turned back into a triple-double machine.

The Untouchables

27. Los Angeles Lakers (2-9) – Old money denizens living in a once-beautiful castle with no heat or modern plumbing.

28. New Orleans Pelicans (1-11) – The M.A.S.H. unit that’s getting screwed out of their disability benefits.

29. Brooklyn Nets (2-10) – The Underwater Team, as they’ve mortgaged most of their future assets.

30. Philadelphia 76ers (0-12) – The saddest team.

 

Around the (NBA) World – Tuesday, Nov 10

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Named after a time-honored driveway shooting game, Around the World takes a look at notable items going on in and around the NBA universe.

Humbled By the Champs – The Pistons stormed into Oracle Arena as the talk of the league after an amazing comeback win in Portland in which they outscored the Blazers 41-11 in the fourth quarter. Andre Drummond put up an insane 29 points and 27 rebounds in that game, while Reggie Jackson scored 26 of his career-high 40 in the fourth quarter. The Pistons’ outburst to start the season can be explained  by simple addition and subtraction. Gone is Greg Monroe, whose presence clogged the paint, hampering Drummond’s growth and the team’s overall spacing. Also by subtracting Josh Smith and replacing him with a big who can actually knock down threes consistently (Ersan Ilyasova), defenders can’t collapse as much on Drummond. When they do decide to double the big man, that leaves wide open layups for Jackson out of the pick-and-roll. The addition has been Drummond emerging as perhaps the best two-way big in the game. It’s early to say that, but the 22-year old is on the right track. Jackson blossoming into a star point guard who can knock down shots and make the right PnR decisions is another welcome addition, and one that I have to admit I was wrong about. I thought he was overvalued by Detroit this offseason.

However, the red-hot Pistons cooled down once they got to Oakland. As detailed in my column last week, the Warriors’ true source of brilliance is their defensive prowess. The undersized Draymond Green can somehow guard Drummond, at least enough to get in his head. The Warriors maintain integrity guarding the pick-and-roll by switching nearly everything and getting away with it due to their versatility. And on the other end Steph Curry is unstoppable. The Pistons may very well bully their way into the playoffs this season and demolish weak defenses like Portland’s as they go, but they were humbled in the Bay last night. Most teams are.

Young Wolves are Teething – The NBA is really in a great place right now, and it’s only getting better with up and coming stars like Andrew Wiggins and Karl Anthony-Towns of the T-Wolves. Towns has played like a veteran through the first six games of his career, averaging 15.5 points and 10 rebounds while shooting 50 percent from the floor. With Towns, Drummond, Jahlil Okafor and Demarcus Cousins coming up, there’s hope for us big men! Meanwhile, Wiggins continues to bloom into a superstar. The pair gives me flashbacks to those awesome Kevin Garnett-Stephon Marbury teams that fell apart too soon. Here’s hoping this ends better. Wiggins took over last night with 33 points and some vicious drives to the rim. Observe:

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The Wolves have a lot of growing up to do and the roster has holes, evident in nearly blowing a 34-point lead Monday against the Hawks. But it’s finally an exciting time for Wolves fans again.

Speaking of Rookies – The 2015-16 rookie class looks amazing already. On Monday, Emmanuel Mudiay posted 18 points, 5 dimes, 6 rebounds and 2 nasty blocks. Remember when rookie point guards had a steep learning curve? Okafor is scoring in bunches – totaling 21 points and 15 boards in a loss to Chicago Monday – and is cause for hope in Philly. Kristaps Porzingis is bringing life to the Knicks as well. This was really tough, but here are my early season top 10 rookie rankings:

Rank Player Draft Position Points Rebs Asts
1 Okafor 3 19.9 6.9 1.3
2 Towns 1 15.5 10 1.2
3 Mudiay 7 12.7 4.3 5.6
4 Porzingis 4 12.3 8.6 0.7
5 D’Angelo Russell 2 9.3 3.2 2.3
6 Justise Winslow 10 7.1 4.9 1.3
7 Stanley Johnson 8 7.6 4 1.1
8 Willie Cauley-Stein 6 6.6 5.9 0.5
9 Mario Hezonja 5 4.5 1.3 0.8
10 Jerian Grant 19 7.1 2.7 4

Kings in Turmoil – We knew coming into the season, the potential for disaster was everywhere. Boogie Cousins paired with Rajon Rondo, with George Karl at the helm? Big, difficult personalities abound in Sacramento. The Kings have stumbled to a 1-7 start, getting outscored by nearly eight points a game, and predictably the royal castle is crumbling from within. This team was sloppily put together and the dysfunction flows from ownership on down to the players on the court. Big change could be coming soon, once again, for this team that’s consistently been in the lottery while failing to get better with all their draft picks.

Awesome DeAndre Game Promo – More to come on this game – I will actually be in attendance tomorrow night – but ESPN got us primed for it with a great promo featuring Phil Collins, DeAndre screaming, Dirk shoving and Mark Cuban looking sad:

A November Must Watch

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The Detroit Pistons seem to be for real. Andre Drummond is single-handedly bringing back the center position. This vine has me captivated:

Tonight the Pistons take on Golden State at Oracle Arena. It’s the second night of a back to back for Detroit so I will take the Warriors in this one. Out on a limb, I know. But Drummond just may have entered an echelon we haven’t seen since Dwight Howard’s prime, maybe even since prime Shaq, if he continues his run of dominance.

Whether the Fighting SVG’s win or lose tonight, must-see basketball in November means we’re all winners.

So You Want to Be the Warriors?

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The Warriors' secret ingredients
The Warriors’ secret ingredients

Look at the NBA landscape and things are pretty clear – it’s the Warriors, and everyone else. The Dubs, fresh off a championship, have come out firing to a 5-0 record, against four teams that were in last year’s Western Conference playoffs. Not until Wednesday’s thrilling win over the Clippers had the Warriors even had to sweat in a fourth quarter. Steph Curry is lethal and it seems each key cog has somehow improved from last year.

Naturally, the league’s other teams want to emulate Golden State. They are the standard-bearer for NBA excellence, sure, but the effort to transform into a Warriors-like identity is especially strong because they are viewed as unorthodox. They’re challenging convention by playing small, fast and with a deep bench. Ask 10 casual fans about who the Warriors are and I bet nine of them will talk about their pace and knack for outside shooting. It’s only part of the answer, however. Several teams have latched onto this half-truth in building their rosters, coaching staffs and overall identity.

Teams seem to forget the main ingredient in the Warriors’ hearty basketball stew – DEFENSE.

Yes, Curry is in the conversation for best scoring point guard of all time. Indeed, the Warriors led the league last year in pace, scoring, effective field goal percentage and three-point percentage, while finishing second in offensive rating. But it was their versatile and suffocating defense that drove the Dubs to 67 wins and an NBA title. Pace and space is a great concept, until your stretch four is getting smoked on the perimeter and your “rim protector” is getting dunked on (See: Mirotic, Nikola and Gasol, Pau).

I’m going to pick on the Bulls for another minute because I watch most of their games and I still can’t believe Charlotte hung 130 on them Tuesday night. Chicago scored 105 in that game, something they did 29 times in 2014-15. Last season, under Tom Thibodeaux, the Bulls went 24-5 in games in which they scored at least 105 points, winning those 24 games by an average of 11 points. They never lost by more than 11 when scoring that much, and in fact all season only allowed 130+ once, in a double overtime loss to the Mavericks. After kicking Thibs to the curb, the Bulls’ brain trust took major steps to Warriorize the team, bringing in Fred Hoiberg to install his pace-and-space, three point-heavy system. Hoiberg immediately moved Joakim Noah to the bench and is using stretch lineups with more shooters on the floor, such as Doug McDermott, Nikola Mirotic and Aaron Brooks. In a vacuum, this all makes perfect sense for a plodding offensive team looking to change its ways.

But the Bulls, and others such as the Pacers, Mavericks, Pelicans and even the Thunder, are missing the forest for the trees. There is a foundational dilemma at the heart of the small-ball revolution. How do you score in bunches, push the pace and create matchup nightmares for opponents on one end, while not becoming a sieve on the other end? Is it possible to gain the upper hand in matchups on both ends and blow teams out of the gym? If you’ve constructed a roster like the Warriors, then yes and yes. The LeBron-era Heat and the 2013-14 Spurs also proved the model. Teams that are playing small for small’s sake and not emphasizing the defensive end are setting themselves up for some ugly nights. Like when you give up 130 to Charlotte, those kind of nights. The Spurs were able to surround Tim Duncan’s rim protection with three or four deadly shooters. The Heatles had LeBron, Wade and Bosh in their primes and featured a trapping, frenzied defensive scheme that made up for lack of size in the middle.

Golden State works because they can go small or big, while always rolling out lineups that can switch screens, protect the rim and force turnovers. They have Draymond Green and nobody else does. He can cover quick guards for stretches on the perimeter, switch any screen and as he showed against Zach Randolph in the Warriors’ 50-point demolition of Memphis, he can body up almost any big. His unique talents combined with the rim protection and rebounding of Andrew Bogut allows Golden State to go small or super-small and never give up much defensive integrity in the paint. Klay Thompson, Harrison Barnes and Andre Iguodala are swiss-army knives on the perimeter that can switch to big men without allowing easy buckets. Throw all of this together with their shooting and running ability. The result is a championship-proven monolith that may not be replicable. The Warriors have set a standard that is not statistically attainable. Here are some Warriors numbers from last season to go with the offensive ranks listed above: 1st in opponent’s field goal percentage (.428), 1st in defensive rating, 1st in margin of victory, 2nd in blocks, 4th in steals, 5th in opponent’s turnovers, 6th in rebounding. Dear Lord.

Good luck matching that with Mirotic and Gasol playing more minutes than Noah and Taj Gibson. Or with Paul George at the four, next to Ian Mahinmi. Or with Enes Kanter taking minutes from Steven Adams.

OKC and Chicago are breaking in first-year coaches, and the season is very young. They may well figure out the right mix of minutes, tempo and defensive strategies. But they don’t have – and no one does – the roster versatility on both ends that Golden State has. They’d be well served to do like the rest of us: simply watch the Warriors in awe and try to make their own way.

Quick Updated Power Rankings

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Note: Column on the mighty Warriors and their impact on the league coming later today.

DotB Week 2 Power Rankings

  1. Golden State Warriors (5-0)
  2. L.A. Clippers (4-1)
  3. Cleveland Cavaliers (4-1)
  4. San Antonio Spurs (3-2)
  5. Atlanta Hawks (5-1)
  6. Toronto Raptors (5-0)
  7. Chicago Bulls (4-2)
  8. Oklahoma City Thunder (3-3)
  9. Washington Wizards (3-1)
  10. Phoenix Suns (3-2)
  11. Portland Trail Blazers (4-2)
  12. Detroit Pistons (3-1)
  13. Miami Heat (3-2)
  14. Utah Jazz (3-2)
  15. Memphis Grizzlies (3-3)
  16. Houston Rockets (2-3)
  17. Minnesota Timberwolves (2-2)
  18. New York Knicks (2-3)
  19. Dallas Mavericks (2-3)
  20. Charlotte Hornets (2-3)
  21. Denver Nuggets (2-3)
  22. Indiana Pacers (2-3)
  23. Milwaukee Bucks (2-3)
  24. Boston Celtics (1-3)
  25. Orlando Magic (1-4)
  26. Sacramento Kings (1-4)
  27. New Orleans Pelicans (0-4)
  28. L.A. Lakers (0-4)
  29. Brooklyn Nets (0-5)
  30. Philadelphia 76ers (0-4)

What We Might Know After a Week (Western Conference)

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What might we know after a week of NBA games? After looking at some data…maybe, probably nothing. But we can look at what last year’s standings were after each team played three games, and where that jived with or diverted from final standings. After waiting breathlessly all offseason for NBA action and eager to understand the league power structure, I crave context. We’ll start with the Western Conference.

Each team in the West except for Minnesota has played three games through Sunday. Golden State, Oklahoma City, LAC and as we all expected, Minnesota, are your undefeated teams out West. Very surprisingly, Houston and New Orleans are winless. Quite unsurprisingly, so are the Lakers. Here are your very early Western Conference standings

Team W L
1 Warriors 3 0
1 Thunder 3 0
1 Clippers 3 0
4 T-Wolves 2 0
5 Grizzlies 2 1
5 Spurs 2 1
5 Mavericks 2 1
5 Suns 2 1
5 Jazz 2 1
10 Blazers 1 2
10 Nuggets 1 2
10 Kings 1 2
13 Lakers 0 3
13 Pelicans 0 3
13 Rockets 0 3

Through three games last season here were the West standings, compared with how the teams ranked at the end of the season.

14-’15 Team W L   Final Standings W L
1 Warriors 3 0 1 Warriors 67 15
1 Rockets 3 0 2 Rockets 56 26
1 Grizzlies 3 0 2 Clippers 56 26
4 Spurs 2 1 4 Spurs 55 27
4 Mavericks 2 1 4 Grizzlies 55 27
4 Clippers 2 1 6 Blazers 51 31
4 Kings 2 1 7 Mavericks 50 32
4 Suns 2 1 8 Pelicans 45 37
9 Thunder 1 2 8 Thunder 45 37
9 Pelicans 1 2 10 Suns 39 43
9 Nuggets 1 2 11 Jazz 38 44
9 Blazers 1 2 12 Nuggets 30 52
9 Jazz 1 2 13 Kings 29 53
9 T-Wolves 1 2 14 Lakers 21 61
15 Lakers 0 3 15 T-Wolves 16 66

At first glance, the first three games of 2014-15 were actually a great representation of the conference power rankings. The Kings’ early start last year was fool’s gold, at least once Vivek Ranadive ran amok and fired Michael Malone. The Mavericks ended up slipping a little in the standings but still winning 50 games and the Suns fell out of the playoff race, while the Pelicans rose into the playoff picture. So let’s take a look at this year. Do I really think Minnesota is a playoff team? Of course not. But the rest of the top eight in the current standings all have a legitimate chance. The Warriors are monsters, on a tier of their own. The Thunder, Clippers, Spurs and Grizzlies are shoe-ins. The Suns have bounced back from that atrocious first loss to the Mavs at home and the Jazz have shown that the hype may be real.

The real question marks here are the Rockets and Pelicans. At least the Pels have an excuse in injuries, and should get better as they get healthier. But the Rockets are truly confounding, and this hole they’re digging for themselves is concerning. Not only are they 0-3, but they’ve made history by becoming the first NBA team to lose its first three games by 20 points. Yikes. They also play in the toughest division in basketball, while teams like Portland, Minny, Sacramento and even Denver aren’t playing like the pushovers we once assumed. So while it’s very early, climbing out of that hole won’t be easy. Things are fundamentally wrong with this team, which is predicated on three point shooting, getting to the line and running teams out of the gym. Right now James Harden is in a terrible slump, shooting just 3-32 from three.

The team is following its struggling star’s lead, clocking in at third-worst in the league in three-point percentage, at just 25%. Last season they were second in the NBA in free throw attempts, but this season they rank 12th through three games. Most surprisingly, the Rockets are scoring only 88.7 points per game, tied with Brooklyn for second-lowest in the league.

They are due for some positive regression. But it’s a major red flag that after making the Conference Finals, adding depth across the board and bringing in the speedy Ty Lawson, the Rockets are playing slower, less efficiently and with the intensity of an Oregon drum circle. Last season I had doubts about a team led by Harden and Dwight Howard, who are not the most rah-rah locker room guys. But those doubts were erased after the incredible playoff run that included one of the greatest comebacks I’ve ever seen against the Clippers in Game 6. Now I’m just confused.

Who knows, maybe Josh Smith was the glue holding Clutch City together. Could we have been wrong about Josh all these years?