Opening Power Rankings + Division Rankings

~ dnathanfati ~ Leave a comment

The 2015-16 season starts tomorrow, so let’s kick things off with the first iteration of the Power Rankings. The Power Rankings are where I see the teams as of today, while the Division Rankings are a projection of the order of finish. So there may be discrepancies in the order of things. This ranking will be updated several times per month.

NBA Power Rankings

  1. Golden State Warriors (NOP, Tuesday)
  2. Oklahoma City Thunder (SAN, Wednesday)
  3. Houston Rockets (DEN, Weds)
  4. Los Angeles Clippers (@Sac, Weds)
  5. San Antonio Spurs (@OKC, Weds)
  6. Cleveland Cavaliers (@Chi, Tues)
  7. Memphis Grizzlies (CLE, Weds)
  8. Chicago Bulls (CLE, Tues)
  9. Atlanta Hawks (DET, Tues)
  10. Miami Heat (CHA, Weds)
  11. Washington Wizards (@Orl, Weds)
  12. Toronto Raptors (IND, Weds)
  13. Utah Jazz (@Det, Weds)
  14. New Orleans Pelicans (@GSW, Tues)
  15. Milwaukee Bucks (NYK, Weds)
  16. Boston Celtics (PHI, Weds)
  17. Phoenix Suns (DAL, Weds)
  18. Detroit Pistons (@Atl, Tues)
  19. Indiana Pacers (@Tor, Weds)
  20. Sacramento Kings (LAC, Weds)
  21. Dallas Mavericks (@Phx, Weds)
  22. New York Knicks (@Mil, Weds)
  23. Charlotte Hornets (@Mia, Weds)
  24. Denver Nuggets (@Hou, Weds)
  25. Orlando Magic (WSH, Weds)
  26. Los Angeles Lakers (MIN, Weds)
  27. Portland Trail Blazers (NOP, Weds)
  28. Minnesota Timberwolves (@LAL, Weds)
  29. Brooklyn Nets (CHI, Weds)
  30. Philadelphia 76ers (@Bos, Weds)

Division Rankings

This is purely because I enjoy listing things. Divisions don’t really matter anymore. They’ve been taken out of the playoff seeding picture. But they still exist, and I’m anxious for the season to start, so I’m ranking the divisions dammit.

Cream of the Crop

  1. Southwest Division – It’s almost unfair how stacked this group is. These teams will battle it out all season in a gauntlet, becoming stronger teams in the process. Predicted order of finish – 1, Rockets 2. Spurs 3. Grizzlies 4. Pelicans 5. Mavs

Second Tier

2. Central Division – The Cavs and Bulls may be the East’s two best, and the rest of the division is on the rise. 1. Cavs 2. Bulls 3. Bucks 4. Pistons 5. Pacers

3. Pacific Division – Very top heavy, but a couple other teams have boom or bust potential, specifically the Kings and Suns. The Lakers could also be decent if everything breaks right. 1. Warriors 2. Clippers 3. Suns 4. Kings 5. Lakers

4. Southeast Division – A solid group, with three teams that can conceivably make a play for a top 2 seed in the East. Orlando should be improving. 1. Miami 2. Atlanta 3. Washington 4. Orlando 5. Charlotte

Greatness, then Garbage

5. Northwest Division – OKC could win 60 games and an NBA title. Utah should make the playoffs. With Portland tumbling, the bottom falls out pretty quickly. 1. Thunder 2. Jazz 3. Nuggets 4. Blazers 5. Timberwolves

Wasteland

6. Atlantic Division – Once again, this will be the weakest division. However, Boston has high hopes and Toronto could surprise. 1. Raptors 2. Celtics 3. Knicks 4. Nets 5. 76ers

Here’s to a Happy, HEALTHY NBA Season

~ dnathanfati ~ Leave a comment

The NBA season kicks off in two nights. WOOOOOHOOOOOO!!

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via GIPHY

Now, before we get too excited, I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention the horrible news that broke today that long time NBA head coach Flip Saunders passed away Sunday after a battle with cancer. This is devastating news, and my heart goes out to Saunders’ family, the Minnesota Timberwolves organization and the NBA at large. Saunders was a great ambassador for the NBA and one of its top coaches. By all accounts he was an even greater man. He will be missed dearly.

The NBA that Saunders leaves behind is in great shape. There are more superstars and top flight teams in the league than perhaps anytime in the last 30 years. There are storylines galore. How will first year college to pro coaches – Fred Hoiberg (Bulls) and Billy Donovan (Thunder) – fare after taking over contenders? Can Anthony Davis make the expected leap to league’s best player sooner than later? Can the champion Warriors prove last year wasn’t a fluke? Will the small-ball revolution continue and teams trend closer toward positionless basketball? How will Kevin Durant’s comeback-from-injury tour unfold? And for that matter, Paul George’s?

Speaking of injuries, the worst trend in recent NBA seasons has been the amount of time missed by hobbled star players. The following sample reads like a USA Basketball practice roster: Durant, George, Derrick Rose, Kevin Love, Kobe Bryant, Dwight Howard, Carmelo Anthony, Amare Stoudemire. All of these guys have missed significant game time or whole seasons since 2012. Last season could have been an all-timer in terms of basketball greatness, yet by the end of the playoffs we were so marred by injury that teams were a shell of themselves. Look, injuries are always going to factor into an 82-game season with two months of postseason play; and the team with the most injury luck is normally the last team standing in June. But last season got ridiculous.

It’s why the Warriors are (unfairly in my opinion) having to defend their title verbally before the season even starts. Golden State won a historic 67 games, had the League MVP and more or less rolled through the playoffs, but teams and pundits are still chirping that their championship win was due more to other contenders in their path being decimated by injury. In the Finals, the Cavs were without Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving. The Rockets lost Pat Beverley and had a hobbled Howard in the Western Conference Finals. After going up 2-1 on the Warriors in the second round, the Grizzlies’ backcourt became dinged up.

I’m not taking anything away from the Warriors. That’s nonsense. But I can’t deny that the level of play goes down considerably with all this attrition. And the basketball watching public suffers. This year, the Pelicans are already a basketball MASH unit, which will put considerable strain on Davis. Please, Brow, please stay healthy.

I read a lot of NBA coverage and listen to a ton of podcasts – I love prognostication.  One thing you learn quickly is in any season previews or playoff predictions, the words “If they stay healthy” or “With all things being equal” has to be mentioned constantly. If Durant and Serge Ibaka stay healthy, OKC could win 65 games. If Rose stays healthy the Bulls could get the 1 seed. See what I mean?

Teams recognize this as a huge issue, as does the top NBA brass. You’re seeing teams invest in new wave training staffs and sending players to sports science organizations like P3 in Los Angeles during the offseason. Commissioner Adam Silver is working on ways to eliminate back to backs and four games in five nights, while someday we may see fewer games with more rest in between. Whatever it takes, I’m for it. Because only injuries and hack-a-thons can take away from what should be an awesome 2015-16 season. It’s time to get fired up.

The season starts Tuesday with three great matchups. Here’s a brief look:

Cleveland @ Chicago (TNT) – 7 p.m.

Oh yeah, baby. This is the stuff I’ve been waiting for since June. As a Bulls fan, I’m cautiously optimistic about the Fred Hoiberg era. Rose will be in the lineup after his broken orbital bone injury, and LeBron will also play after his preseason back injection. No Iman Shumpert or Kyrie though, already out with injuries. Sigh. At least the King and D-Rose will be out there. I like the Bulls to get Hoiberg a win in his first regular season game.

Detroit @ Atlanta – 7 p.m.

This may not intrigue casual fans, but I’m very interested. The only thing casual about me is my wardrobe, son… /adjusts basketball shorts. Stan Van Gundy is reshaping the Pistons with one big in the middle (Andre Drummond) and four shooters on the outside. They should play faster and be much harder to deal with defensively. Atlanta won 60 games last year and lost Demarre Carroll to free agency, but signed Tiago Splitter and return with a chip on their shoulder. Nobody thinks they can be as good this year, that last year was an aberration. Time to prove doubters wrong. I like them to start out 1-0.

New Orleans @ Golden State (TNT) – 9:30 p.m.

A rematch of last year’s first round playoff series, which the Warriors swept. This game looked a lot better when the schedule first came out. But as mentioned, New Orleans is banged up badly. They could be without Tyreke Evans, Norris Cole, Quincy Pondexter, Omer Asik, Alexis Ajinca, and Jrue Holiday will be on a minutes limit. Meanwhile the Champs are healthy, playing at home and have haters to quiet. I like the Warriors big.

Here we go. Let’s be careful out there NBA teams. May your injury reports be short and your medical staff be bored.

Hope For Lamar

~ dnathanfati ~ 1 Comment

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My heart sank when I got the ESPN alert last Tuesday that Lamar Odom was found unconscious at a Las Vegas brothel. His post-NBA struggles with substances immediately came to mind, and while I hoped it was something less serious, deep down I knew.

As of this writing, his fight continues, though the most important hurdle has been cleared, as he has escaped with his life. He’s reportedly breathing on his own, speaking a little and has taken a few steps. He’s back in Los Angeles for rehabilitation and is surrounded by family. Those are all positive developments, but the extent of any brain damage and future impaired motor skills is not yet known.

Much has been written and said about Odom’s situation – from Lamar’s unique basketball talents that we may not see again to the potential negative influence of the Kardashians to the tragedies that have befallen L.O. throughout his life. This news has personally affected me greatly. As I read the details of his circumstances a profound sadness rooted in dark memories washed over me. I read that he was unresponsive, had been intoxicated and was intubated at a hospital.

I identified with all of it but the last detail is an especially sharp one. I’ve been intubated before, at a hospital, after being found unconscious. Waking up with a plastic tube shoved down your mouth is one of those moments you can’t prepare for. There’s a stinging, burning sensation in your throat. You can’t swallow. Every instinct tells you to clutch for the apparatus and rip it out, but your hands are tied down to prevent just that. You thus can’t communicate at all, leaving you plenty of time to think about your situation and feel the confusion over how you got there. At least I did.

This is a dark time. But beneath it all is a shred of hope. You’re alive and breathing, even if it’s machine-assisted. That’s the first tiny kernel of hope…the physical body’s resilience in the face of tremendous strain. The mental/emotional/spiritual self can be just as resilient, but that rehabilitation requires a lot more conscious effort.

My hope for L.O. is this is his bottom, and that the right person or people get him the help he needs. For me, it took one more hospitalization a month later and a friend at my bedside to show me a way out, before I finally said “Enough is enough.” (But I’m stubborn and a slow learner, while Odom briefly made University of Rhode Island basketball relevant, so he’s shown the ability to overcome tough odds in the past.)

That was three years ago and since then I’ve gotten married, enjoyed some professional success and created countless new memories with friends and family. He still has hope. It will always be a struggle. But the point is he is still a young man and the future can still be bright. First things first, let’s hope Odom gets right physically, and then the hard but unimaginably rewarding work can begin.

IMPORTANT: Frame by Frame Investigation of Steph Curry’s Mid-Shot High Five

~ dnathanfati ~ 1 Comment

I’m currently reading “Four Days in November” by Vincent Bugliosi, about the assassination of JFK and subsequent murder of his murderer two days later. I’m feeling inspired by this great book, so in the spirit of true investigative journalism, let’s break down last night’s spectacular Warriors footage frame-by-frame Zapruder-style.
We like to have fun here at DotB but sometimes you have to stiffen your upper lip and tackle the serious topics. So without further ado:

The evidence in question-

https://vid.me/e/xHFC?stats=1&tools=1

The Breakdown-

0:03 – Curry pushes the ball up the court and eyes the defense. For most that means a simple dominant hand dribble. For Curry, it’s a for-the-hell-of-it behind the back dribble, in stride, avoiding Klay Thompson who I assume is sprinting right in front of him purely to add a degree of difficulty. No big deal.

0:05 – Another totally routine behind-the-back move by Curry; this time a pass to Thompson on the wing, that absolutely freezes poor DeMar DeRozan.

0:06 – In the span of one whole second, Thompson catches, squares up in triple-threat position, pulls the slightest shot fake – causing DeMarre Carroll to sell out and go off balance – and switches to his right hand to whip a post entry pass to Draymond Green. The brilliance of the Warriors is on full display in these last two seconds: the unpredictable yet controlled artistry of Curry meets the rock solid fundamentals of Thompson. They are freelance ballers that are well-coached, flashy but always finding the right pass; a kaleidoscope of basketball potency.

0:07 – Draymond knows where Curry is going to be before he even catches Thompson’s bounce pass. Once he gets it he throws a one-time crosscourt rope to Steph. The pass is low but Curry is a master of lining up a shot from wherever the pass comes in. Now he’s looking at a wide open three. More Warriors wizardry.

0:08-0:09 – Curry catches and launches that patented 3-point stroke of his. Note that in three seconds, three different Warriors touch the ball, leaving a Frozen DeRozan, a reaching Carroll and generally scattered Raptors defensive set in their wake. The ball travels from the top of the key, to the wing, to the post and then back behind the arc. In three seconds.

0:10-0:14 – Curry instinctively looks right to a chillin’ Andre Iguodala, towel in hand (little known rule: it’s mandatory that all NBA players have a towel in their hand or on their person while on the bench), and reaches for the low-five. The video pauses to emphasize the ball still in mid-air as Curry gestures to Iggy.

0:16 – Conspiracy? Did the high (low)-five happen before the shot went down as many are reporting? Or did he hesitate, only finishing the hand slap ritual once the ball tickled the twine? Our parent’s generation had the grassy knoll and a suspected assassin murdered in a police station, but I challenge them to unravel a mystery of this magnitude. I think it’s clear he waited for the shot to go in, but he’s still taking a major risk. What if he clanked the shot and Iggy left him hanging as punishment? How awkward. But things like that don’t happen to this MVP or his team.

0:17 – Iguodala’s sheer display of towel-waving glee after the high-five reminds you why life is worth living. He wasn’t even this happy when hoisting the Finals MVP trophy last year. Priorities, man.

God bless the NBA.

On Derrick Rose, Disappointment and a City Turning on Its Own

~ dnathanfati ~ 5 Comments
Not again
Not again

I was listening to “Waddle & Silvy” on ESPNChicago this afternoon and it was stated that 6 months of Derrick Rose storylines have been crammed into two days. I thought that was a very accurate overview, and as we’ve gotten accustomed to, each of these D-Rose storylines are bad ones. For clarity, let’s list them all out and tackle each storyline below.

  • Negative Storyline #1 – Rose is facing a sexual assault lawsuit in California
  • Negative Storyline #2 – Rose starts out Media Day by announcing that he’s already looking ahead two years to when he can get paid in free agency, basically unprompted
  • Negative Storyline #3 – A Rose-fatigued city is further alienated from its once-favorite Son, thanks to his own words and his horrible advisors
  • Negative Storyline #4 – Many “Rose is just not good with that talking stuff” hot takes, some that dangerously come close to calling the guy stupid
  • Negative Storyline #5 – In the team’s first practice after the free agency comment, Derrick Rose took an elbow and BROKE HIS FACE!

I’m going to bounce around here some, but I choose to start by addressing the last bullet, as to me it is by far the most pressing concern facing this Bulls team. Rose’s shattered orbital bone, while some reports suggest he’ll only be out two weeks, could be a big wrench in the hopeful Bulls’ plans. First and foremost, the injury is a traumatic one that has to mess with a slashing guard’s psyche and confidence at least for the near term. Second, the timing of it couldn’t be much worse.

New coach Fred Hoiberg is overhauling the whole style of Bulls basketball. The hope is that the Bulls will become an offensive juggernaut, while not sacrificing much of their well-known stout defense. Under Tom Thibodeaux the Bulls struggled to score points (ranked 29th, 30th and 15th last three seasons) and hit three-pointers (29th, 26th, 15th). In addition to the numbers, the eye test showed that many possessions bogged down after multiple pick and rolls went nowhere and the offense resorted to a late shot clock heave. This was especially the case in the playoffs, when defenses are stouter. Under Thibodeaux any time a solid defensive team had a chance to scout during a seven game series, the Bulls’ offense ground to a halt. This is precisely why, from a basketball standpoint at least, Hoiberg was brought in. His teams at Iowa State never ranked lower than #11 in offensive efficiency, as they pushed the pace routinely after defensive rebounds and utilized early-action screens up top while big men played off the block to open up the lane. Iowa State also ranked in the top 15% of Division I teams in threes attempted last season.

All of this is a huge departure from what the Bulls did offensively under Thibodeaux, meaning this training camp is more important to the Bulls than any in recent memory. There will be a major learning curve. How will Pau Gasol, Joakim Noah and Taj Gibson adjust to playing much less back-to-the-basket, low-block offense? Will the wings take time learning to push and push and push some more after misses? Most importantly, how will the primary ball handling duties be divvied up between Jimmy Butler and Rose? There have already been questions about the two guards’ chemistry, a partnership that will be tantamount to making this offense hum. There are valid concerns about how well Rose and Butler mesh. I ranked them #2 in my backcourt rankings but the more I think about it, it feels like even more of a homer pick than I first admitted. Rose shined his brightest before Butler played any real minutes in the NBA. Then the injuries happened and Butler shined without Rose. Together for really the first time last season, their grade can only be an incomplete. Butler tended to shoot better from distance with Rose demanding defensive attention but Butler’s attacking numbers fell as he sometimes was relegated to a spot up shooter. There were some awkward crunch time moments when neither guy seemed sure who the alpha was, usually with Rose winding up with the final shot. Training camp is the ideal place to work these things out and build the framework for success when it counts. Now with Rose missing most of camp, he will once again be playing catch up while others pick up the slack early on. And for the love of God I just can’t stomach many more Kirk Hinrich bricks.

Storylines #1-4

Onto a more serious off-court storyline, the sexual assault lawsuit that has been following Rose around for the past month or so. The little bit of detail that I read about is pretty horrible and if true, he has much bigger problems to deal with than a broken face and he shouldn’t even be playing. However, I like to reserve judgment on these kinds of things, because someone calling you a rapist and demanding money doesn’t alone make one a rapist. There haven’t been criminal charges and in general I think the media has done a good job of letting the courts work through this without spouting unfounded conjecture. Even if completely innocent, this is an embarrassing  accusation for Rose. And I think that played into the free agency storyline. He was asked about the lawsuit on Media Day, and in his answer, he started talking about all the money his peers have been making this summer in free agency and how he’s looking forward to getting his in two years. This is the comment that started up the Derrick Detractors Demolition Derby in Chicago and nationwide.

Let’s break it down. To me, he is obviously uncomfortable in front of a microphone and cameras to begin with; and on top of that the lawsuit question made him nervous and he jumped to something off topic in the free agency / money comments. Now he’s definitely at fault here, because he obviously had those comments chambered and had been thinking about it all summer when he saw guys like Enes Kanter get $70M contracts. It’s like when your mom would question you about where you were the night before past curfew, and you stutter and fumble around for an answer before changing the subject to the A you got on your last history exam. The problem is the subject Rose jumped to is not one anybody who follows the NBA wants to hear about from him. He had a blank in his chamber, and it got him into much more of a mess than if he had just given an awkward answer to the original question.

Which leads to the final couple points here. A player can be terrible at interviews and awkward with the media and even say dumb things, without being a dumb person. Derrick isn’t Isaac Newton, but I do not consider him dumb. I can’t imagine coming up the way he did in Englewood, on Chicago’s South Side. I’m from the Chicago ‘burbs, a completely different world. But to choose the legal route and pursue basketball dreams in an effort to pull himself out of that situation and bring his family and friends along with him takes personal commitment, character and yes, smarts.

Beyond his basketball skills, it was his story that enamored his fellow Chicagoans with him. Chicago prides itself on blue collar loyalty, and Derrick seemed to embody that, winning high school titles at Simeon, taking his Memphis team to the NCAA title and then coming home as the Bulls’ #1 draft pick. Immediately he got the city excited again about Bulls basketball and won the Rookie of the Year, then two years later the MVP, and he suddenly owned a city whose skyscrapers he once looked at from afar in the rough and forgotten slums of Englewood. We all know what happened next, his first real taste of basketball adversity in the playoffs against Philly, when he blew out his ACL. The arguments on when he was cleared to play but didn’t come back in are tired and stale so I won’t go back down that road, but that was the first time Chicago turned on its hometown hero. It wouldn’t be the last. Only Derrick knows how that’s affected him, but it’s been one thing after another since the initial injury while the bandwagon continues to shrink. The real sad thing about his fall from grace with Chicago is that your average Grabowsky (middle-aged, middle-class, white Chicago male) would probably cross the street in fear if he saw a 17-year old Englewood version of Derrick Rose walking down the sidewalk, yet that same guy sees an MVP D-Rose crowned at the United Center and claims a part of that glory for himself since they’re ostensibly from the same city. Should we be surprised by how quickly Grabowsky shuns the ghetto kid once he doesn’t live up to the standards we’ve set for him? Sadly, I guess we’ve learned the answer to that. Listen, I love Chicago, it’s my favorite city on Earth. But Chicago is more overtly racist than many places in Texas (where I live now) and whole swaths of that city (read: the poor parts) have been left for dead amidst drug gangs, violence and a general ambivalence from the wider population. I’ve gone on a tangent here, but trust me I’ve heard nasty things said in Chicago about Rose and people of his background, and even though I think Derrick deserves a ton of blame for this whole circus, I want to shed a light on some of the unfortunate hypocrisy and hatred going on in the Chi.

Man. The season hasn’t even started yet and I’m already depressed. Let’s go out on a high note with this clip of D Rose finding some of his old magic in last year’s playoffs. I wonder how many of the Grabowsky’s calling for Rose’s head today were jumping and cheering after this shot banked in just four short months ago…

Get well soon, Derrick.

2015 Media Day Winners & Losers

~ dnathanfati ~ 1 Comment

As a Chicago Bears fan, the NBA season can’t start soon enough. As a Chicago Bulls fan, can’t someone unplug Derrick Rose’s microphone? More on that later.

Media Day marks the start of NBA training camps, and showcases the Association in all its quirky glory. You know the NBA is back when Twitter videos pop up of a star player wearing a fannypack while lip-synching and dancing to Montell Jordan.

After reading up on each team’s version of the Media Day circus, here are my winners and losers – although much like Media Day itself, this is mostly good-natured fun. Except for D-Rose (Dammit).

Media Day Winners

D-Wade – You have to applaud Wade for how he’s crafted his brilliant career. He won a title with Shaq early in his career, convinced LeBron and Chris Bosh to come play with him and won two more titles, and now he’s again a cornerstone of an impressive roster. Most importantly his balky knees haven’t affected his dance moves. This is just a phenomenal performance.

Body Image – A common theme, much mocked by the basketball internet, is the recurring training camp storyline of who’s dropped weight, added 15 pounds of muscle or gotten swole in the offseason. This year’s Media Day did not disappoint. NBA Media Day quote sheets can resemble an issue of Cosmopolitan with all the LBs shed and miracle diet plans. This year’s winners? Kyle Lowry, who struggled with injuries down the stretch and is no longer a spring chicken, is now looking “svelte” and jokes were made about the impostor wearing Kyle Lowry’s jersey at Media Day. Jared Sullinger also shed some much-needed poundage, while Rudy Gobert added muscle to help him bang down low. Danilo Gallinari is looking trim after Eurobasket. Let’s move on.

Phoenix Suns – Everyone was curious how Markieff Morris would comport himself after throwing a fit when the Suns traded his brother, and demanded a trade himself. Surprisingly, he said he is putting it all behind him and looking forward to playing with his Suns teammates. This is big for Phoenix, who need Kieff’s skills and not his poor attitude in a year when they can compete for a playoff spot. Glad to see he’s on board, and it makes sense. I mean, he can still see Marcus at Thanksgiving, right?

Houston Promise – Ty Lawson has spent the summer getting his personal life sorted out, and is sounding like the change of scenery is doing him some good. He’s poised to help the Rockets compete for a title and will take pressure off of James Harden, keeping the MVP candidate more fresh for a deep playoff run.

“This is like the turning point,” Lawson said at Monday’s Media Day activities in Toyota Center. “What type of career you gonna have, Ty? Are you gonna win championships or are you just be like one of the mediocre players?

“A point guard’s career is always judged on if you win or not. You can have the most points, the most stats, whatever. But if you don’t win a championship as a point guard, then you’re not really one of the best point guards out there. So this is my chance to really prove something, prove my career if I win a championship here.”

Alcohol is a powerful foe; I join Houston fans in rooting for Ty to defeat it.

Amateur Comedy – Media Day allows players and coaches to goof off and test their standup comedy skills in front of a willing media. There’s no pressure yet and everyone’s in a good mood (and getting softball questions). Some highlights include:

  • Danny Ainge responding to questions on Jared Sullinger’s weight loss, joked that he didn’t have a portable scale to weigh him.
  • Brad Stevens when asked where the Celtics are as a team: “Somewhere in the Top 30”.
  • The newly-svelte Lowry complained that none of his pants fit anymore.
  • In response to the DeAndre Jordan situation, Rick Carlisle said: “If cows were kittens, there’d be a milk shortage.” I think that’s a joke, not really sure what it is. An aphorism? Anyway, I laughed.
  • Portland GM Neil Olshey said it was “too much effort to fly to Dallas” when asked why he didn’t resign LaMarcus Aldridge.
  • Number 1 overall pick Karl Anthony Towns started off Minnesota’s media day by announcing his retirement. That’s actually a pretty good one.

Mike Malone – The new Nuggets coach sounds like he’s making an instant impact on the team, who figure to be a bottom-feeder this season. He preaches an up-tempo style, which suits the high-altitude Nuggets, and is quickly building a team identity. He doesn’t want a lot of fouls screwing up his team’s pace, stressing quick defense to offense transition. I love this Malone quote from yesterday: “Fouling negates hustle.” What a gem.

Optimism – Ghandi would be proud. Optimism reigned supreme at Media Days, as it does every year. Here are some things to be happy about going into the season, NBA fans: Joakim Noah is healthy and ready to play like his old self…Fred Hoiberg loves the Bulls’ roster flexibility…Kevin Durant and new coach Billy Donovan have hit it off, are excited to work together…rookie Stanley Johnson has the Pistons glowing…star shooting guards Bradley Beal and DeMar DeRozan aren’t worried about their contracts and are just focused on winning…even George Karl and DeMarcus Cousins are (supposedly) getting along.

Media Day Losers

D-Rose – I’m not going to drop a hot take here, but I’ll just say that as a longtime, staunch Rose supporter it’s getting harder and harder to defend him when he says dumb things to the media. I don’t think his talk about free agency is a huge deal but it’s definitely not a good look at this point in his career and as a leader of a team trying to fundamentally change under a new coach.

This Pop Interviewer – Man this video makes you cringe. The best part is even after Pop has made it plain that he’s messing around, the interviewer looks like he’s in a Southwest Airlines “Wanna Get Away” commercial. Brutal.

Brooklyn Nets – Hey Deron Williams, your former teammate Joe Johnson is confused why you wanted to leave the Nets so bad? “It’s not that bad here,” Johnson said. That should be plastered onto the outside of the Barclays Center.

New Orleans Pelicans – Things on the whole are looking up with a young beast in Anthony Davis and new coach Alvin Gentry. However, Gentry said at Media Day that Tyreke Evans is their undisputed point guard. On its face, I question this strategy. Less Evans dribbling, not more, would be my prescription for the Pelicans. The more foreboding news reading between the lines here is that Jrue Holiday must not be ready to come back and be a reliable contributor, let alone the main point guard.

Jeremy Lamb – In his first season as a Hornet, Lamb is setting himself up to learn some harsh realities. Here’s what he said at Media Day: “I like to shoot the ball but I also like to make plays for my teammates. I think it’ll open up things for Big Al but also he can kick out if they double team him…[I] like to help people play to their strengths.” Obviously Lamb, only 23, is still learning the League. Double team or not, Al Jefferson doesn’t kick it out, young’n.

George Hill – Apparently he plans on sporting this bleach blonde dye job during the season. This is not the way to build upon your best season as a pro.

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Cancer – It was awesome to see Craig Sager, who has been fighting Leukemia for the last year and is receiving treatment in Houston, make it out to Rockets Media Day. NBA broadcasts aren’t the same without Sager and his colorful suits, and Down on the Block would like to wish him a speedy recovery. There was a great moment yesterday when James Harden sought Sager out in a crowded media room and gave him a hug. Here’s hoping there are some good vibes in that Beard…

sager_harden

Anthony Bennett – The Gift and The Curse of the #1 Pick

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anthony-bennett-560x363

News broke today that former #1 overall pick Anthony Bennett and the Minnesota Timberwolves have reached a buyout agreement, sending the star-crossed forward to waivers.

Bennett has been good for big headlines if not stat lines in his young career. The basketball world was shocked when Cleveland and Dan Gilbert made him the first pick in the 2013 draft. The Cavs reached for the relative unknown Canadian, as he may not have been selected by any of the other lottery teams in a weak draft. A year later, Bennett was thrown in to sweeten the Andrew Wiggins for Kevin Love deal, probably at the behest of LeBron. Wiggins shined in Minny, Bennett did not.

Quick aside: We’ll see how Love ends up meshing with the Cavs in Year 2, but if I were a Cavs fan I’d be upset with the Wiggins trade. He’s a budding star who made an instant impact for Minnesota and would have been fascinating to watch next to James and Kyrie Irving. But that’s a topic for another day.

Bennett may carve out a niche for himself as a rotation forward for his next team. But it’s clear he’s joined the ranks of the most disappointing No. 1 picks of the past quarter century. Unlike any other major sport, the top pick in the NBA tends to either be a transformational boom or a tragic bust. There is very little in between. Consider the Olympians, Champions, Hall of Famers and All Stars since 1990 that make up the first group:

’92 – Shaquille O’Neal

’93 – Chris Webber

’94 – Glenn Robinson

’96 – Allen Iverson

’97 – Tim Duncan

’02 – Yao Ming

’03 – LeBron James

’04 – Dwight Howard

’08 – Derrick Rose

’09 – Blake Griffin

’10 – John Wall

’11 – Kyrie Irving

’12 – Anthony Davis

’14 – Andrew Wiggins

That’s 14 of the past 25 #1 picks that have made their respective GMs look like geniuses. Now check the flipside, a group of abysmal picks that slipped into obscurity fast, due to injury or just generally being terrible at basketball:

’95 – Joe Smith (taken over Kevin Garnett)

’98 – Michael Olowokandi (Clips passed on Dirk, Paul Pierce and Vinsanity)

’01 – Kwame Brown (an aging MJ could’ve used Joe Johnson, Pau Gasol or Tyson Chandler, huh?)

’06 – Andrea Bargnani (LaMarcus Aldridge went #2…to my Bulls…who immediately traded him for Tyrus Thomas, as Jeff Van Gundy famously pointed out during an on-air ethering of John Paxson last year. It hurts still.)

’07 – Greg Oden (Kevin Durant of course went #2)

’13 – Bennett (really crappy draft, but the Cavs could’ve done better with Victor Oladipo or Nerlens Noel, among others)

The remainder since 1990 are players that had nice careers but didn’t quite live up to #1 billing: Derrick Coleman (’90), Larry Johnson (’91), Elton Brand (’99), Kenyon Martin (’00), Andrew Bogut (’05).

It’s obviously too early to tell with 2015’s Karl Anthony-Towns, but if the last 25 years are any indication, he has about a 50% chance of being a superstar, and a 25% chance of being a laughingstock of epic proportions. I have high hopes for the big man from Kentucky, but those odds are scary for the guys making the draft day decisions.

And that’s the really difficult part about the Draft. If you’re the GM of a team that’s tanking for the chance at that top spot, it can be a gift and a curse when your ping pong ball comes up last. The Draft is the best vehicle for building a team. If you roll straight 7’s like OKC (Durant, Westbrook, Harden, Ibaka), that is. But the other edge of that sword can stab you in the soul. If you wind up with the #1 pick in a down year, like 2000 or 2013, chances are you’ve won the lottery but lost the war.

And there’s so much symbolic importance with that #1 pick. Consider 1997, when Duncan went #1, the rest of the draft was mostly brutal. Except for Tracy McGrady at #9 and Chauncey Billups at #3. Think the seven teams that passed on T-Mac were kicking themselves? Of course, but no one remembers the Celtics taking Ron Mercer to fill their small forward hole at #6, passing over the prototypical superstar SF McGrady. Everyone remembers Kwame Brown at #1. And we will always remember Anthony Bennett going first, regardless of the weakness of the 2013 draft.

It can be lonely at the top.

Thoughts on Guards + NBA Backcourt Rankings

~ dnathanfati ~ 1 Comment

For much of my life my stance on guards was that they were a necessary evil. For a big man they struck me as selfish, short-sighted showboats. Much of their movements seemed superfluous, and they were hesitant to throw it in to the post even when there was a mouse in the house. I could see their mind turning as they saw me with great low block position and a beckoning arm raised for the ball, always judging, thinking, “What if I never get the ball back?”. It baffled me that they lacked confidence in my ability to pull a fundamental spin move, ball fake, switch hands and kiss it off the glass for two. But, alas, someone needs to bring the ball up the court – I know damn well I’m panicking and getting stole on when that half court trap comes at me.

So it became necessary to build an uneasy alliance with one or two guards who seemed to see the light, who realized that a center isn’t a black hole (except for Al Jefferson), and that a skilled big man with court vision can draw a double team and kick it back out to the original passer or another shooter behind the arc, or find a slashing forward for an easy bucket. It’s not that point guards are inherently selfish – though some are –  it’s that they’re control freaks, with maybe a dose of Napoleon syndrome. As a big man you have to at least feign understanding with these tiny dribble machines for the offense to function properly and the team to ultimately succeed. It’s a constant tug of war. One my favorite books is Pat Conroy’s “My Losing Season”, in which the diminutive Conroy’s coach, talking to the author years after their Citadel days, tells him: “I always hated guards”, to explain away why he was always suck a jerk to him. As I read that, I reflected on many years of being ignored in the post and then berated for not offensive rebounding a contested brick, and a satisfied smile began to curl. What wisdom in those words.

With all that said, I’ve softened my stance on the guard positions as I’ve gotten older, maybe because I don’t get to play as much anymore to witness their treachery in action. You simply can’t deny the level of skill and artistry which the NBA’s best guards display on a nightly basis. In recent years the traditional center position has been de-emphasized yet I crave the NBA more now than I did as a kid. Credit where credit’s due, and as Stephen Curry showcased last season, the point guard position in particular is crucially important in today’s game. And what it means to be a top point guard has changed: not only must they be the court general that drops hot dimes and penetrates a defense, a sweet stroke from three-point range is now almost a prerequisite. A guy like Curry opens up the floor for his bigger teammates since you can’t leave him open at any time. Done right, it’s sublime.

There’s also something to be said for a great partnership between backcourt mates. It can take many forms, such as Klay Thompson checking a bigger, scoring point guard for the small Curry so he can conserve energy for the offensive end; or a Kyle Korver/JJ Redick specializing in catch-and-shoot and bending a defense by moving without the ball while their respective point partner Jeff Teague and Chris Paul run the show and get them the ball at the right spot. Like any partnership it can take time, and it can backfire. The initial promise can disappear when egos, unclear roles and overall team chemistry come into play and sends backcourt mates into feuds. In the best cases you have classic male bonding. The worst case? Well, you remember Gilbert Arenas and Javaris Crittenton exorcising their 2nd Amendment right in the Wizards locker room, right?

Without further ado, I present my current NBA Backcourt Rankings, with some color commentary on each tandem. Point guard is listed first, then shooting guard. One note: though the key criteria for ranking is total starting backcourt play, I will elevate a backcourt if one of the two is a superstar, regardless of how bad his backcourt mate may be. Case in point: I’m taking Russ Westbrook (awesome) and Dion Waiters (decidedly not awesome) every day of the week over two solid guards like George Hill and Monta Ellis in Indiana. Combined PER is from the 2014-15 season.

Low on Talent and/or Experience

30. Emmanuel Mudiay & Randy Foye (Denver Nuggets). Combined PER: N/A. I was in Denver last weekend, and excitement for the Nuggets hasn’t been this low since the pre-Melo days. I like Mudiay and think he will be good, but this year will be tough with a thin roster and a lot being asked of him. As for Foye, I was surprised he is still in the league, let alone starting. Gary Harris may take his job.

29. Tony Wroten & Robert Covington (Philadelphia 76ers). Combined PER: 29.6. Wroten was a great fantasy sleeper if you were punting on turnovers, prior to his injury. He’s erratic and too eager to look for his own shot. Covington is a solid player, whose best role would be coming off the bench for a contender. In Philly he’s their top perimeter player.

28. Jarrett Jack & Wayne Ellington (Brooklyn Nets). Combined PER: 26.2. I don’t have anything to really say here except Jack and Ellington are both fine role players off the bench. But they should not be a starting backcourt in the NBA. Joe Johnson will get some time at the 2, which would push this pairing up further.

27. Jose Calderon & Aaron Afflalo (New York Knicks). Combined PER: 19.5. Knicks fans should probably just watch old tapes of Walt Frazier and Earl Monroe to stay sane this season. Calderon has been a solid pro, but will be 34 this season and doesn’t have much upside. Kendrick Lamar “used to be jealous of Aaron Afflalo”, but my guess is the script has flipped on that one.

26. Trey Burke & Alec Burks (Utah Jazz). Combined PER: 25.6. Great alliterative backcourt, but the greatness stops there. While my fellow Colorado alum Burks can score and is worthy of a starting 2 spot, his ceiling is low. It’s really a shame that Dante Exum went down with a knee injury, as this would have been a valuable growth year for him with a talented front court to play with. Burke just hasn’t shown the same magic he had as a Michigan Wolverine. He could get benched if he shoots them out of games.

Potential Disasters

25. Ricky Rubio & Kevin Martin (Minnesota Timberwolves). Combined PER: 31.9. All that Rubio hype never really panned out, did it? It turns out you need to be able to shoot and score in the lane nowadays as a PG. You can get by if you do one or the other really well. Rubio does neither. The journeyman Martin brings some stability to the position and should put up stats on a bad team. He won’t make them better, however.

24. Rajon Rondo & Ben McLemore (Sacramento Kings). Combined PER: 22.8. Everything with the Kings is a potential disaster, which is why it’s a precarious spot for Rondo to land. He has a chance to rebuild his reputation here and earn a big payday next summer when the cap jumps up, but his glory days are farther and farther behind him. Rondo plus Demarcus Cousins plus George Karl likely equals turmoil. It should be captivating to watch. McLemore may be a diamond in the rough – we’ll see how much better he gets with more playing time this year.

23. Jrue Holiday & Eric Gordon (New Orleans Pelicans). Combined PER: 31.5. I can’t overstate how much the Pels need Holiday healthy for a full season, to take some pressure off the Brow and prevent slipping into becoming the Tyreke Evans Show. His injury history doesn’t leave much room for optimism. Gordon’s own injury-plagued career can only be called a disappointment.

22. Reggie Jackson & Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (Detroit Pistons). Combined PER:  31. When Jackson left OKC for Detroit last season he found more opportunity and his numbers jumped to 17.6 points and 9 assists per game. Though capable of scoring he’s wildly inconsistent and committed 3.5 turnovers per game for Detroit last year. KCP is a solid scorer who won’t keep opponents’ coaches up at night.

21. Damian Lillard & Gerald Henderson (Portland Trail Blazers). Combined PER: 33.9. What a bittersweet time for Dame. On one hand, the Blazers handed him the keys to the team’s future to tune of a 5 year, $120M extension. Yet, he’s the last man standing in the starting five from a team that won 51 games and looked superb at times last year. He’s got to make some kind of effort to improve defensively. Henderson is an efficient shooter, though his PPG dropped last season in Charlotte.

20. Deron Williams & Wesley Matthews (Dallas Mavericks). Combined PER: 31.8. On paper this looks great. Williams has looked good on paper for years, though, just not on the basketball court. He’s back in his hometown now and should be motivated to prove doubters wrong, but that ship may have sailed. Matthews is one of the top 2 guards in the league but the torn Achilles puts his ongoing value and effectiveness in question. Especially this season, I’m not expecting big things.

My Interest is Piqued

19. Kemba Walker & Nic Batum (Charlotte Hornets). Combined PER: 30.7. Batum is a good addition in Charlotte assuming he’s completely healthy after a frustrating down season for him last year. He’ll provide help on perimeter defense and is a great passer and rebounder at the 2 spot. Walker is the star of this team and is an exciting scorer. His ability to win as a team’s best player at the NBA level is questionable.

18. D’Angelo Russell & Kobe Bryant (Los Angeles Lakers). Combined PER: N/A. This pairing should make for good theater if not a lot of wins. I’m buying Russell stock and think he will win Rookie of the Year. He’s also already making waves by doing impressions of Kobe and sharing good-natured jabs with his backcourt mate on Twitter. Russell’s growth as a player could either be helped or hampered by Bryant, depending on what Mamba shows up this season.

17. Marcus Smart & Avery Bradley (Boston Celtics). Combined PER: 22.5. Opposing guards will dread playing the Celtics this year. The Smart-Bradley tandem is physical, hard-nosed and quick to pick pockets. They should get better as they play more together, but Smart needs to improve his efficiency while putting the ball in the basket more often.

16. Elfrid Payton & Victor Oladipo (Orlando Magic). Combined PER: 29.7. Perhaps the two most important cogs in the young Magic’s engine. Payton showed flashes of brilliance as a rookie and should be more consistent in Year 2. Oladipo is the one player on this team with star potential in 2015-16. These two are just getting started and hopefully will share a backcourt for many years.

15. Michael Carter-Williams & Giannis Antetokounmpo (Milwaukee Bucks). Combined PER: 31.1. Giannis is listed as either a 2 or a 3, but I think he will play more backcourt this season as the Bucks integrate Greg Monroe and Jabari Parker into the starting lineup, with Khris Middleton playing the 3. The Greek Freak has the potential to be great – like top 20 player in the league great – and should improve in all areas this year with more polish. MCW is a big PG who gives the Bucks a defensive answer for the Kyrie Irvings and Derrick Rose’s of the East. Both guys are pretty atrocious shooters, that must improve quickly.

Solid and Steady

14. Mike Conley & Courtney Lee (Memphis Grizzlies). Combined PER: 30.1. I love Mike Conley – his top priority is getting teammates involved in the offense and feeding his awesome big men. He’s as steady as they come, and he shoots lefty. A lot to like there. Lee is just sort of there…you can count on him for 10 points and 1-2 threes per game, which has not been enough for low scoring Memphis to get past the West powerhouses.

13. George Hill & Monta Ellis (Indiana Pacers). Combined PER: 38. Maybe it was just because I totally ignored the Pacers last season, but I was amazed when looking up Hill’s stats. He was excellent! He shot almost 48 percent while scoring 16 points a game with an out-of-nowhere 21.5 PER. Monta should help boost Hill’s pedestrian assist numbers. Last year’s Pacers were not so good at trivial things like scoring. Ellis had one of his best seasons last year as well, functioning as a point guard at times for Dallas. We’ll have to see how these two fit together. It could go bad real fast if Ellis reverts to being a chucker.

12. Jeff Teague & Kyle Korver (Atlanta Hawks). Combined PER: 35.4. These two had a great season in 2014-15 and the continuity will help the Hawks this year. If they want to even sniff 60 wins again, Teague’s passing and Korver’s shooting will be main factors.

Carried by a Superstar PG

11. Kyrie Irving & Iman Shumpert (Cleveland Cavaliers). Combined PER: 32.6. Kyrie may be out the first couple months recovering from surgery but he’s a top 5 point guard when healthy. Shumpert is a defensive role-player on this team, but they could really use better shooting from him.

10. Russell Westbrook & Dion Waiters (Oklahoma City Thunder). Combined PER: 39.2. Russ went HAM last year with Durant out of the lineup. Many can argue that he hurt the team with his ball-dominance, but I won’t complain because it produced Oscar Robertson-like stat lines and endless quality Vines. His PER was nearly 30 and if he was paired with even a league-average guard rather than Waiters, they’d be a few spots higher on this list.

Loaded with Talent

9. Kyle Lowry & DeMar DeRozan (Toronto Raptors). Combined PER: 36.7. Both battled injuries last year at different times but when they shared the floor Toronto became a perimeter nightmare for opposing teams to guard. Both really fizzled in the playoffs, which will need to change if they want to stay in the top 10.

8. Chris Paul & JJ Redick (Los Angeles Clippers). Combined PER: 42.2. Paul is a generational point guard who will make all his teammates look better. Redick, however, is not just a normal player. His off-ball movement drives defenders crazy and he creates so much space for Paul and the bigs to work due to the threat of his 3-point shooting. The Clippers should be improved this year, and have a terrible taste in their mouths given their last two playoff flame outs. Expect big things.

7. Tony Parker & Danny Green (San Antonio Spurs). Combined PER: 32.4. This was a tough one to figure out, especially since Parker has noticeably declined with age. But these two are champions that have proven they can win playing together. Green’s 3-and-D is hugely important to new-look San Antonio’s title dreams.

Show and Prove

6. Eric Bledsoe & Brandon Knight (Phoenix Suns): Combined PER: 28.9. You may say this is a reach. But I have faith, even if these are basically two point guards sharing a backcourt. Knight played his best basketball last season in Milwaukee. Bledsoe is a cornerstone for Phoenix. Phoenix has a wide range of outcomes based on things like Markieff Morris’s sanity and Tyson Chandler’s age, but one thing that is not a question mark is the backcourt.

5. Goran Dragic & Dwyane Wade (Miami Heat). Combined PER: 40.2. Dragic and Wade actually shot better than any other backcourt last season, 48.5%, after the February trade that sent Dragic over from the Suns. The pairing never got a chance to play together with Chris Bosh, who thankfully is cleared to play this season. Dragic is good enough to shoulder the scoring load on those nights when D-Wade’s knees are barking. This should be a phenomenal partnership.

4. Ty Lawson & James Harden (Houston Rockets). Combined PER: 45.2. They haven’t played a game together yet, but the potential makes your mouth water. Harden had an MVP-like year handling a bulk of the Rockets’ scoring, but he also was asked to handle the ball pretty much all game. That’s not a sustainable strategy as the miles on Harden’s body add up. He also was tops in the league in turnovers, many times having to force plays late in the shot clock when the offense broke down. If they can figure it out, Lawson can be the primary ballhandler, always a threat to beat his man for an easy layup or pull from three, while Harden works the angles and gets more open shots. Lawson needs to figure out his alcohol issues first and foremost, but he’s found his way into a great situation.

Only Injuries Can Stop Them

3. John Wall & Bradley Beal (Washington Wizards) Combined PER: 33.9. This star pairing is entering its fourth year together and I’m betting the improvement over Year 3 will be vast. Beal in particular had a tough time finding his rhythm after an early injury. Yet Washington still swept Toronto and pushed top seed Atlanta to six games in the playoffs. Wall is a blur on the court with great court vision and a killer instinct to take and make the final shot. Beal is a pure shooting guard that can play some defense and make a defense pay for helping on Wall. With a clean bill of health, this is the year Wall and Beal put themselves on the map as a top-3 backcourt.

2. Derrick Rose & Jimmy Butler (Chicago Bulls). Combined PER: 37.2. Rose, in his first real meaningful regular season minutes in three years, showed hints of his old brilliance and some serious inefficiency. His PER last year was eight points lower than his career high of 23.5, he shot just 41 percent from the field and 28 percent from three. Rose will never be the player he was in 2010; that’s the bad news. The good news is now he doesn’t have to be. His backcourt mate Butler came into his own last year and will be the Bulls’ 2 guard for the foreseeable future. There have been questions, mostly baseless in my opinion, about friction between Butler and Rose. Only time will tell, but I believe they will be a force together under a Fred Hoiberg offense that will be more imaginative and fluid than past Thibodeaux attacks. I predict this year that Rose will have a career high in assists.

The Gold Standard

  1. Steph Curry & Klay Thompson (Golden State Warriors). Combined PER: 48.8(!). Like it could be anyone else? One guy was the league MVP and the other scored 37 points in a single quarter against the Kings last year. Fresh off an NBA Finals championship, look for these two to continue their barrage of threes and highlight reel fast breaks. I can’t wait.

Taking My Temperature on the ESPN Summer Forecast

~ dnathanfati ~ 2 Comments

Recently, ESPN put out its “Summer Forecast” rankings, based on a survey of their NBA experts’ thoughts on 2015-16 team win totals. Since it’s Labor Day weekend and we’re still nearly two months from the start of the season, I figured I’d take a look and comment on these rankings. Below are my thoughts for each team’s projected win total, followed by a forecast of my own.

 EASTERN CONFERENCE

  1. Cleveland Cavaliers

Proj. record: 59-23

Last season: 53-29

This is low. Like everyone else in the world, I have Cleveland winning the East, but anything under 60 wins would really shock me. Even with Kyrie missing time, the Cavs have made enough improvements in the offseason and the team jelled in the playoff run.

  1. Chicago Bulls

Proj. record: 50-32

Last season: 50-32

This is the safe bet, factoring in the unknown that is Head Coach Fred Hoiberg. But this team has done it before and with a jolt on the offensive end, 50 wins will be a disappointment. I like Chicago for 2nd in the East, but it will take 53-55 wins to do so.

  1. Atlanta Hawks

Proj. record: 50-32

Last season: 60-22

I’m a bit lost on this team. I still don’t know how they won 60 last year, and DeMarre Carroll’s loss will be felt, but not sure he is worth 10 wins. However, some of the bloom is off the rose with the players that are left I feel, so I’m predicting an even more precipitous drop.

  1. Miami Heat

Proj. record: 47-35

Last season: 37-45

I’m predicting more than 47 wins from Miami, as they will be one of the bigger turnaround teams this season. Health won’t be perfect, but a killer starting 5 and great coach in Eric Spoelstra gets them close to 50 wins.

  1. Washington Wizards

Proj. record: 46-36

Last season: 46-36

The Wizards were impressive last year but their 2015-16 success hinges on a few key items: Jared Dudley and Otto Porter replacing Paul Pierce’s production and veteran leadership, Bradley Beal and John Wall staying healthy enough to become a top 3 backcourt and Randy Wittman staying out of his own way. 46 wins feels about right but could swing based on those factors.

  1. Toronto Raptors

Proj. record: 44-38

Last season: 49-33

The Raptors played like crap in the playoffs. But they should get a healthier Kyle Lowry and added Carroll to give them more lineup versatility.. I’m guessing they finish a bit closer to last year’s totals. Playoff performance will be a whole other conversation.

  1. Milwaukee Bucks

Proj. record: 44-38

Last season: 41-41

I love the Bucks this year, see my NBA Risers column for more detail. A healthy Jabari Parker and addition of Greg Monroe should lead to 44-45 wins.

  1. Boston Celtics

Proj. record: 40-42

Last season: 40-42

People always talk about Brad Stevens when they talk Celtics. Having a great coach goes a long way and I admire Stevens’ work, but at the end of the day you need stars if you want to be a factor in the NBA. The 8-seed feels like their ceiling, right around 40 wins.

  1. Indiana Pacers

Proj. record: 39-43

Last season: 38-44

Indiana’s fate will be tied to Paul George. If he returns to even 90% of what he was two years ago, Indiana could nab a 7 or 8 seed. I’m not a fan of the rest of their roster, aside from George Hill and PG-13’s leg makes me nervous. I’m taking the under here.

  1. Charlotte Hornets

Proj. record: 35-47

Last season: 33-49

The Hornets ridded themselves of Lance Stephenson and stuck to their guns on drafting Frank Kaminsky, when Justise Winslow was unexpectedly available. I like the first move, hate the second. More mediocrity for MJ’s crew, 35 wins feels fair.

  1. Detroit Pistons

Proj. record: 35-47

Last season: 32-50

I’m going to pick Detroit to finish closer to 40 wins after some roster turnover and a training camp under SVG. This team will play together offensively, while Andre Drummond takes another leap on both ends.

  1. Brooklyn Nets

Proj. record: 30-52

Last season: 38-44

Brooklyn got rid of the disappointing Deron Williams and his huge cap hit. They also didn’t do much to get better, in an offseason with their hands tied due to irresponsible Russian rain-making the last few years. This feels high, which is sad.

  1. Orlando Magic

Proj. record: 30-52

Last season: 25-57

I really like the Magic roster and new coach Scott Skiles will bring a new energy. I think they improve by 10 wins and next season fight for a playoff spot.

  1. New York Knicks

Proj. record: 25-57

Last season: 17-65

An 8-win improvement seems high to me. Even with a healthy Carmelo they top out at 22 wins in an improved East. Wouldn’t be surprised to see Carmelo traded by February.

  1. Philadelphia 76ers

Proj. record: 19-63

Last season: 18-64

Philly has some players now after so many high draft picks, but their still raw, and the team is missing an identity. Again, with an improved East, this win total may be high which is really, really sad.

 WESTERN CONFERENCE 

  1. Golden State Warriors

Proj. record: 60-22

Last season: 67-15

The champs stood pat this offseason except for shipping out David Lee, which will give them a little flexibility to add to their already insane depth. I understand you can’t forecast 67 wins since it’s an all-time number, but I also don’t see them dropping off 7 wins from last year. They’re too good and every game (plus homecourt) matters in the West.

  1. San Antonio Spurs

Proj. record: 57-25

Last season: 55-27

This feels right. They will be awesome, but will take time to find their rhythm with the new pieces. Manu Ginobili is not the player he once was and they lost a lot of shooting and perimeter depth this offseason.

  1. Houston Rockets

Proj. record: 56-26

Last season: 56-26

Houston is absolutely stacked on paper. If Ty Lawson and James Harden figure out an efficient way to share the scoring load, look out. They could approach 60 wins, so I’m taking the over.

  1. Los Angeles Clippers

Proj. record: 56-26

Last season: 56-26

Another team that made some nice moves and got better this offseason. They will also need time to jell, but Pierce, Lance Stephenson and Josh Smith are complementary pieces, so I expect them to hit their stride quicker than the Spurs, who are integrating a star in LaMarcus Aldridge. I’ll take them to outperform this projection.

  1. Oklahoma City Thunder

Proj. record: 55-27

Last season: 45-37

Jeez the West is stacked. OKC could conceivably win the West, which would mean 60-plus wins. We are the real winners, getting to watch KD and Russ play together again. Will be interesting to see how Billy Donovan works out as an NBA coach, but I’ll bet a few extra wins on him.

  1. Memphis Grizzlies

Proj. record: 51-31

Last season: 55-27

Memphis does feel due for a downturn, but I’ve gotten burned by that thinking before. With the intensity which they play defense, they are a threat to win on any given night in the regular season. 52 wins is my guess.

  1. New Orleans Pelicans

Proj. record: 47-35

Last season: 45-37

This is where things get really interesting in the West seeding. The team they’ve put around Anthony Davis is weird, and outside of Tyreke Evans I’m not sure where the consistent scoring will come from. However, Alvin Gentry should be counted on to make an impact on that end, and Davis is a monster, 45-47 seems more than doable.

  1. Dallas Mavericks

Proj. record: 41-41

Last season: 50-32

As a Dallas resident, I’m not a Mavs fan. But I’d still like to see them succeed so I can go to some intense late season and playoff games. But I don’t see them making the playoffs or even finishing .500. They’re counting on too many old guys and Wesley Matthews will need to be handled with care after an Achilles injury.

  1. Utah Jazz

Proj. record: 40-42

Last season: 38-44

This is the team I like to take the Blazers’ playoff spot. See NBA Risers for more color, I’ll just say I love the frontcourt of Derrick Favors and Rudy Gobert, they play great defense and the loss of Dante Exum – while it sucks – won’t hurt as much as one might expect. Trey Burke and Raul Neto can be serviceable – just feed the bigs and Gordon Hayward from the perimeter.

  1. Phoenix Suns

Proj. record: 35-47

Last season: 39-43

A super intriguing team. They are a huge wild card. Either Markieff Morris and all his drama lead this team into the tank, or they make a run at the 8-seed with an improved offense. Alex Len should be better, Tyson Chandler will anchor the defense and they have a plethora of perimeter weapons. I’m betting on an improvement and just missing the playoffs as the 9-seed.

  1. Portland Trail Blazers

Proj. record: 31-51

Last season: 51-31

This team was so great to watch the past two years, but they will fall off a cliff. 31 wins will be tough in the West, with really only Damian Lillard providing spark (and terrible defense).

  1. Sacramento Kings

Proj. record: 31-51

Last season: 29-53

I really enjoyed CBS Sports’ Zach Harper’s column on George Karl and Demarcus Cousins, and the potential to build a great offense regardless of the off court drama that has plagued the two. But the Kings need the turbulent Cousins, Rajon Rondo and Rudy Gay to click and not clash with a headstrong coach. That’s a bit too much to ask. Sacramento will struggle but 31 is attainable with the talent they have.

  1. Denver Nuggets

Proj. record: 27-55

Last season: 30-52

Really excited to watch Emmanuel Mudiay figure out the league. He will have his bumps, but will have the ball in his hands a ton and be asked to shoulder a major scoring load. That’s about all there is to watch in Denver this year. I’m taking the under.

  1. Los Angeles Lakers

Proj. record: 26-56

Last season: 21-61

If Kobe and Julius Randle play most of the season, and D’Angelo Russell lives up to the hype, these guys will at least have some entertainment value. They lack depth however, and Kobe’s body may just not be able to hold up anymore. I think they win 23 games, with some Vine-worthy moments mixed in.

  1. Minnesota Timberwolves

Proj. record: 24-58

Last season: 16-66

Their talented young core is exciting and the development of Karl Anthony Towns, Andrew Wiggins and Zach Lavine will make for good League Pass nights, but 24 wins is too much of a jump.

Down On The Block’s Forecast

Eastern Conference

  1. Cleveland Cavaliers – (61-21)
  2. Chicago Bulls – (55-27)
  3. Miami Heat – (50-32)
  4. Washington Wizards – (47-35)
  5. Atlanta Hawks – (46-36)
  6. Toronto Raptors – (45-37)
  7. Milwaukee Bucks – (45-37)
  8. Detroit Pistons – (40-42)
  9. Boston Celtics – (40-42)
  10. Charlotte Hornets – (37-45)
  11. Orlando Magic – (36-46)
  12. Indiana Pacers – (35-47)
  13. Brooklyn Nets – (25-57)
  14. New York Knicks – (22-60)
  15. Philadelphia 76ers – (19-63)

Western Conference

  1. Golden State Warriors (62-20)
  2. Houston Rockets (60-22)
  3. Oklahoma City Thunder (57-25)
  4. San Antonio Spurs – (55-27)
  5. Los Angeles Clippers – (54-28)
  6. Memphis Grizzlies – (52-30)
  7. New Orleans Pelicans – (47-35)
  8. Utah Jazz – (43-39)
  9. Phoenix Suns – (41-41)
  10. Dallas Mavericks – (40-42)
  11. Sacramento Kings – (31-48)
  12. Los Angeles Lakers – (23-59)
  13. Portland Trail Blazers – (23-59)
  14. Denver Nuggets – (20-62)
  15. Minnesota Timberwolves – (19-63)

Malcolm’s 90s Player of the Week – Charles Oakley

~ dnathanfati ~ Leave a comment
Inspired by 2015’s dopest summer movie, “Dope”, Down on the Block will shout out a different player from the salad days of the 1990s each week.
Inspired by 2015’s dopest summer movie, “Dope”, Down on the Block will shout out a different player from the salad days of the 1990s each week.

This week’s entry…Charles Oakley

Don't step to the Oak, Alonzo
Don’t step to the Oak, Alonzo

Charles Oakley helped define the 1990s NBA, for good and for bad. His Knicks teams were always in contention but could never get past the Michael Jordan hurdle. And when Jordan went away for a couple years they finally made the Finals but lost to Hakeem and the Rockets. Oakley had skills – he could shoot the midrange, defend the opponent’s best front court player and was a nifty passer. The 6’8″ power forward was prototypical for the position in the ’90s – a plodding enforcer and rebounder who could be a complementary scorer. That type of power forward is becoming a relic, in today’s small-ball, stretch 4 craze, and I won’t argue that the evolution is bad (even though I love the ’90s). One thing about ’90s basketball I can’t wax nostalgic about were the New York Knicks, and while not as famous as Patrick Ewing and John Starks, Oakley was the spirit animal of slow, boring, overly physical play.

Oak had some nice statistical years, especially between 1993-94 and 1996-97. He average between 10-12 points and 8-12 rebounds in those years, upping his game in the 93-94 playoffs to 13 and 12 over 25 games, and making the 1994 All Star Game.

But to be honest, enough about his numbers or even basketball in general. The true legacy of Oak is his on-court brawling, his disdain for modern players (and Charles Barkley), and his membership in Michael Jordan’s entourage. Oak has been MJ’s right hand man and security detail for years after becoming one of the most feared players in the NBA. If you step on MJ’s Pumas in a club or he owes you money from a gambling debt, have fun dealing with Oakley. But that doesn’t mean tough guys don’t dance. Watch this video from a ’90s Oprah show and thank me later.

MJ and Oakley became close when they played together for the Bulls in the late-’80s, but he probably earned his quasi-bodyguard role in the 90s after showing a quick temper that usually meant haymakers for anyone in his path. He even fought Barkley in a PRESEASON game. That’s great hustle.

In later years, Oakley has very predictably become the type of crotchety ex-player that I love to hear grieve for the game’s great past. He showed recently that he may be the least self-aware former athlete in history, quite an accomplishment, when he said the modern NBA game is hard to watch. This from a guy whose teams played some of the slowest basketball since the all white guy days, specializing in low scoring snooze-fests that only became watchable when a brouhaha would break out. Here’s one more fight video to enjoy, along those lines…