thunder

The plot thickens – Who has a case to come out of the West?

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Since the last time I did this, on Friday, much has been revealed. For one, the Spurs – on a 4-game run – have switched places with the Timberwolves. The Wolves can’t get Jimmy Butler back soon enough. Shockingly Derrick Rose hasn’t been the answer. A 2-game skid in this quagmire is enough to drop you from 5th place to 8th just like that. Luckily for Tom Thibodeau’s team, a recent Clippers mini-swoon and the Nuggets’ fraudulence gives them a 2-game cushion for the final playoff spot.

Here’s what else we know at this point: at least four West teams are playing their best basketball right at the most crucial time. The Rockets, Blazers, Jazz and Thunder are riding winning streaks of six games or more, while the aforementioned Spurs have turned it around and just might get Kawhi Leonard back.

With the Warriors a M.A.S.H unit, the door seems to be open for the first time in four years to other contenders. I break down each team’s chances of reaching the NBA Finals, from what we know at this point, below. But first, the standings:

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Regardless of the current standings, I’m going to rank each team in order of best to worst chance of surviving the Western Conference playoff gauntlet. The three main factors for me are (a) crunch-time scorers, (b) playoff experience and (c) team defensive ceiling. Each of these categories are measured on a 1.0 – 5.0 scale.  Let’s dive in…

1. Golden State Warriors: Score – 14.5 (5.0 Crunch; 5.0 XP; 4.5 Team D)

The champ is cut. There’s a golf ball forming over his eye and he’s bleeding. And yet, someone still has to deliver the knockout blow when it counts. As of right now, I’m sitting here in believe-it-when-I-see-it mode. Simply no team can match the firepower of a healthy Warriors team that can turn to three different earth-scorching scorers late in games. Their defense has fallen off some this season, but led by Draymond Green, they can get to a gear no one else can on that end when fully engaged. They do need all four of their starters healthy, especially since the bench has been disappointing. Right now, all four are banged up. But my theory is we’ll be looking back at this wobbly March version of the Warriors and realizing how smart it was to get the core group all this rest before the games really start to matter. It’s not like the 2-seed is that big an albatross. Just give us a healthy dose of Steph–KD pick-and-rolls, please.

2. Houston Rockets: Score – 13.5 (5.0 Crunch; 4.5 XP; 4.0 Team D)

Look, these guys are on a rampage. I definitely think they have the goods to beat the Warriors with home-court advantage in the playoffs. The Chris Paul–James Harden experiment has come off like Isaac Newton and white light. Their defense, once porous, is now a strength thanks to Paul, Trevor Ariza, Clint Capela, Luc Mbah a Moute and PJ Tucker. They can hit you with four deadeye shooters at once. Eric Gordon is having his best season in almost a decade. They are legit. But questions remain once the curtains fall on the regular season. Though Harden and Paul have a ton of playoff experience, they are more well known for postseason failures than successes. Harden has been to one Finals, but as a sixth man in OKC. He disappeared last season against San Antonio. Paul has never been to a conference final. I know this, you know this. What we don’t know is if, with their powers combined, they can get over the hump together. I can’t wait to find out.

Also can’t wait for their big game tonight in Portland.

3. Oklahoma City Thunder: Score – 12.5 (4.5 Crunch; 4.0 XP; 4.0 Team D)

The Thunder are hoping they’ve figured it out at the right time. Russell Westbrook is back to being the unquestioned alpha, registering five straight triple-doubles during this six-game win streak. Paul George is an uber-valuable perimeter defender who will be asked to be even more of an anchor is the playoffs. Steven Adams can stand toe-to-toe with any big man in the West, save Anthony Davis. But Carmelo Anthony is a question mark, as is the thin bench. Without Andre Roberson, their overall defense has suffered some. Can Russ save enough energy for the defensive end in a long playoff run? I’m dubious, but they have surprised me lately as their schedule has gotten tough and they’ve only gotten tougher.

Another test ahead of them tonight in Boston.

4. Portland Trail Blazers: Score – 12 (5.0 Crunch; 3.5 XP; 3.5 Team D)

Count me as one who did not see this Portland thing coming. Now at 13 straight wins and featuring an MVP-type Damian Lillard performance over the past couple months, this Blazers team is ultra-confident. Jusuf Nurkic gives them a little bit of nasty down low to go with their smooth backcourt. They have a true homecourt advantage and one of the game’s best closers in Lillard. Their defense has been superb during the win streak and really, all season long (they rank 5th in Defensive Rating). I have questions as to how well they can consistently defend the perimeter against the West’ best, but what a run.

They’ll get a chance to prove it against the top team in the conference when the mighty Rockets visit tonight.

5. Utah Jazz: Score – 11.5 (3.5 Crunch; 3.0 XP; 5.0 Team D)

The Jazz have quite a formula figured out. It’s simple: play some of the best defense of the decade night in and night out, and have your late-Lottery pick rookie torch your opponents on the offensive end. The defense is certainly sustainable. Can Donovan Mitchell continue playing at this level in his first postseason? There’s not much history that says a rookie can lead a team to the Finals, but history hasn’t seen this kid yet. Rudy Gobert is anchoring a defense that has given up 100+ points just four times in its last 23 games. The Jazz are 21-2 over that stretch.

I think they present major matchup problems for any team other than Houston, who they’ve gone 0-4 against this season. Tonight’s matchup, the Hawks, won’t be a problem.

6. San Antonio Spurs: Score – 11 (3.0 Crunch: 4.0 XP; 4.0 Team D)

The Spurs have the most variance in their score. Basically, of Kawhi comes back and is 75 percent or better, their crunch time, defense and experience levels rocket up. It’s encouraging how well they’re playing at the moment, but they remain a wait-and-see.

7. New Orleans Pelicans: Score – 9.5 (4.0 Crunch; 2.5 XP; 3.0 Team D)

The Pels are short on playoff experience and elite defensive ability. But they’re long on Anthony Davis. The Brow may be the factor that wins them a first round series, unless they play the Warriors or Rockets. Beyond that, I don’t see a path for them to the Finals.

8. Minnesota Timberwolves: Score – 9 (4.0 Crunch; 2.5 XP; 2.5 Team D)

Much like the Spurs and Kawhi, the Wolves’ score varies based on Butler’s status. He’s the only key player with significant playoff experience and he’s a killer in the clutch. Karl Anthony-Towns will light up the scoreboard in a potential first round matchup with Houston, but it’s not going to be enough. They’re another year or so away from true contention, unless GM Thibs hamstrings them by bringing in Joakim Noah, Luol Deng and Ben Gordon to complete his Bulls nostalgia trip.

9. Los Angeles Clippers: Score – 8 (2.5 Crunch; 2.5 XP; 3.0 Team D)

The Clips are a fun story, staying competitive and playing hard after the departures of Paul and Blake Griffin. But Lou Williams is really their only go-to scorer in the clutch, while DeAndre Jordan can’t stop everyone by himself. Injuries have taken a toll but they’ve gamely persevered.  If they make the playoffs that will be enough of a win in itself. They’re not sniffing the Finals this year.

10. Denver Nuggets: Score – 6.5 (2.5 Crunch; 2.0 XP; 2.0 Team D)

The Nuggets are like a forest fire: conditions have to be just right for them to shine. Lately, it’s been nothing but rain.

No Rest For The West – March 16

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The start of March Madness obscured a momentous night in the West. So what changed in the all-important playoff race? Doc Rivers is pissed at the refs after a loss to Houston knocked the Clips down too ninth, so nothing new there. The Spurs won a huge game over the Pelicans to get back to the 8-seed. Utah kept winning. So did Portland, despite LeBron James ruining Jusuf Nurkic‘s year with this masterpiece:

 

In a big change, Denver beat a team that they’re better than (the Pistons), yet may have lost Gary Harris to a knee sprain for some amount of time. They can live without him Saturday against the terrible Memphis Grizzlies, but the Nuggets schedule soon gets brutal. So let’s hope Garris is back at 100 percent soon or we can wave goodbye to the 10-seed Nuggets.

Finally, since Tuesday, the ever-changing 4-5-6 slots have shuffled again. OKC is leading the pack, followed by Minnesota and New Orleans.

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Tonight’s slate is light, with just one crucial game between the Clippers and Thunder, while the Warriors’ B team takes on the Kings’ F team.

Clippers @ Thunder – Recently OKC had done its job by racking up wins against pitiful teams. Now the fun begins. They have 12 games left on the schedule and the first 11 of them will be mighty struggles against the league’s best. They’ll need to win at least six of these games if they hope to cling to a top-4 seed and homecourt advantage in the first round. Worst case scenario could even see them missing the playoffs. That’s how tough this stretch is, with road games at Toronto, Boston, Houston, San Antonio and New Orleans on the horizon. A win tonight over Doc’s Clippers, who are playing for the second time in two nights, is almost mandatory. My pick: Thunder 111, Clippers 103.

Kings @ Warriors – No Steph. No Klay. No Durant. Maybe no Draymond Green. It’s smart that the Warriors are letting their stars heal, but will it cost them against the Kings, who’ve already beaten them at Oracle this season? No.

The Kings are that bad. Warriors 98, Kings 88.

Picks record since March 5 – 24-12

No Rest For The West – March 13

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It’s finally happened. The San Antonio Spurs are wallflowers at the NBA playoff party, at least for now. The Spurs haven’t been outside of the top-8 this late in the season since Tim Duncan invented the light bulb.

Houston, as expected, lit up the Spurs at home last night, sending Pop’s squad to its third straight defeat and eighth loss in ten games. The loss dropped them down three spots to 10th(!) in one night. Do they have enough time to make a late run if Kawhi Leonard comes back? How healthy/rusty will he be? These kinds of tough questions are new to the Spurs, whose incredible 20+ year run may be ending.

The other team that had its fate change quickly, but in the opposite direction, is Oklahoma City. Last night’s closer-than-it-should’ve-been win over the Kings catapulted them from the sixth seed to the fourth. Sorry, Pelicans and Timberwolves, that’s what you get for having the night off.

Oh, and Portland won yet again, this time over Miami. Damian Lillard is hitting his peak prime and Jusuf Nurkic was a beast in the paint with Hassan Whiteside out. The Blazers now own a 10-game winning streak. Continue reading →

No Rest For The West – March 12

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At this time of year, it’s fun to look back on where expectations stood coming into the season. I can only speak for myself here, but I thought there was clear top four pecking order in the West, in order: Golden State, Houston, San Antonio, Oklahoma City. In mid-March the Blazers and Pelicans have upset that order, with a little help from Kawhi Leonard‘s quadriceps and the Thunder’s rollercoaster. Now we still might end up with the projected top four, given Kawhi’s expected return and the razor-thin margin for error beneath the Warriors and Rockets. But it’s genuinely surprising to look at the current pecking order for me. I had thought Portland reached its full potential over the past couple seasons and that their ill-advised spending spree in the summer of 2016 would limit their ceiling. They are now clearly the third-best team in the West. I also assumed the Pelicans would be scraping at the margins of the 8-seed and that Minnesota would need another year before reaching 4-6 seed range. But what do I know? I also thought Memphis was going to be back in the playoffs this year (yikes).

Continue reading →

No Rest For The West – March 11

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Greetings, fellow NBA-heads. Things are really starting to move in the West. We took a day off yesterday given there were only two impactful games going on (and I got lazy) but since Friday the standings have shaken up. The Spurs are the latest team in danger of falling out of the top eight, the Clippers are catching fire and Oklahoma City is back in the top five. Meanwhile, three of the top four teams have finally lost a game, with only Portland keeping its winning streak going. And don’t look now but 10-seeded Utah is on a five-game streak of their own. Here are the latest standings heading into a big Sunday slate of games:

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Let’s get right into it. Here’s what’s coming up on a juicy Sunday:

2:30 CT – Warriors @ Timberwolves: The Dubs had a chance to reclaim the 1-seed Friday, but couldn’t hang with the red-hot Blazers on the road without Steph Curry. Today Curry, Jordan Bell and Pat McCaw aren’t with the team while David West and Andre Iguodala are all most likely out. But these are the Warriors, don’t shed too many tears for them. Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green should still be able to lead them to victory over a Jimmy Butler-less Wolves team on a three-game skid. Especially if Derrick Rose eats into Tyus Jones‘ minutes. The pick: Warriors 103-100.

3:00 CT – Jazz @ Pelicans: It’s legit exciting that this is an important game in mid-March. Both teams have battled injuries again this season but are thriving regardless. Keep an eye on the Anthony Davis – Rudy Gobert matchup (assuming AD is back, fingers crossed). The best offensive big man in the game against the best defensive one. For tie-breaker purposes, this one is big for New Orleans, who have lost two of three to the Jazz this season. Since Boogie Cousins went down, the Pelicans have been best when playing at a breakneck pace. Utah will try to slow everything down. Something has to give. The pick: I’m taking the Jazz on the road, given Davis’ potential limitations, 106-99.

4:00 CT – Kings @ Nuggets: The schedule gods have given Denver plenty gifts lately. The problem is they tend to turn their noses up at such good tidings. But the Kings are a special kind of bad team right now. Give me the Nugs in a rout, 117-92.

6:00 CT – Rockets @ Mavericks: Houston saw it’s 17-game streak broken in Toronto Friday night, but gave a valiant effort in a late comeback bid. They are just fine. Don’t expect them to take the Mavs for granted like Denver did this week. Houston despises Dallas, in basketball and just about everything else. The Rockets will twist the knife tonight, winning in Big D, 122-100.

Picks record since March 5: 14-9

No Rest For The West – March 7

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OK, before we get into the updated standings, I have a few thoughts off top on the Denver Nuggets. I’ve written about their upcoming easy schedule and how imperative it is for them to take advantage if they’re going to finally be a real big boy playoff team again. Shockingly, they didn’t listen to me. I was embarrassed for them watching last night’s disastrous loss to the 20-win Mavericks. Sure it was on the road, but they had two days rest after a very impressive win in Cleveland. And again, it was the Mavericks, who are in free-fall both on and off the court. The vibe I got was that the Nugs thought just showing up would be enough to get an easy win before a home rematch with the Cavs tonight. It’s easy to get on the coach in these situations – don’t worry, I will – but this is the NBA. It starts and ends with the players, namely the stars. Nikola Jokic is one of my favorite players and a true inspiration to all flat-footed, doughy big men. But he stunk last night, and his disappearing act has happened way too often this season. Either he’s not ready to carry his own team or maybe he loses interest if things don’t go his way early. He’s young and has a lot of weight on his shoulders. Regardless, as the future of the team,, his on-court effort or lack thereof is entirely his responsibility. Now, when he’s off the court there’s not much he can do for his team, which brings us to coach Michael Malone. What the hell was he doing last night? He benched Jokic for the entire fourth quarter, even as the lineup he did roll out there clanked threes, missed free throws and played lazy defense. It reeked of a desperate motivational tactic, which there just honestly isn’t time for at this point. You’re not a mid-major college coach, Malone, nor are you Phil Jackson. Play your best player when every game is basically a must-win. I can’t believe I have to say that.

Continue reading →

No Rest For The West – March 6

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Welcome back for the second installment of Down on the Block’s Western Conference playoff race tracker. Not much has changed since yesterday, with just three teams in action (all of whom won). So here’s a quick primer for tonight’s full slate of action. First, the latest standings:

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The seeds remain the same after the Spurs, Jazz and red-hot Blazers notched W’s Monday night. Things have just grown ever tighter. I expect some upheaval after tonight’s matchups, however. Peep it…

Tonight’s relevant games: Continue reading →

No Rest For The West – March 5 Edition

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The NBA’s Western Conference is coming down to a two-team race for the top seed and a bloodbath in constant flux for the remaining six playoff spots. As of today, eight teams have eyes on those six spots, with just four games separating #3 (Portland) from #10 (Utah) with about 20 games left on the calendar. Remarkably, seeds #4-8 are within a game and a half of each other.

A bad week can send a team tumbling down the standings and into jeopardy of falling out of it completely. Minnesota, on a slide since Jimmy Butler‘s injury, and San Antonio, battling injuries to Kawhi Leonard and others, know this firsthand. Of course the opposite is true as well. Portland and New Orleans have shot up the standings with six-game and eight-game winning streaks, respectively. All ten of these teams boast a positive point differential on the season, contrasted with just six such teams in the Eastern Conference.

Continue reading →

Cavs Ruin the Warriors’ Dream Season

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Last week, before Game 6 of the NBA Finals, I had a vivid dream. The kind that, though absurd, felt so intensely real. The dream took place in Game 7, which the Cavs had forced despite losing a majority of their players to (unspecified) injury in Game 6. Since the Cavs couldn’t field a full lineup due to those injuries, the league allowed the Oklahoma City Thunder to play Game 7 on behalf of Cleveland. And the Thunder were kicking Golden State’s ass. That’s when I woke up.

Subconsciously, I think I had recognized that the Cavs found the formula the Thunder briefly uncovered in the Western Conference Finals and that spelled doom for the Warriors. The bully ball of Steven Adams and Serge Ibaka that imposed its will on the defending champs was now being played by LeBron James and Tristan Thompson. The swagger of Dion Waiters and Russell Westbrook that shook Golden State’s famous confidence, brought to you by James, JR Smith and Kyrie Irving in the Finals. The otherworldly performance by a transcendent player, in Kevin Durant, was being surpassed by James. OKC would fumble it away, this elusive Warriors kryptonite, but the Cavs wouldn’t. In my dream, the Thunder were allowed another try to come back from the abyss and finish off the Warriors. In real life, it turned out, Cleveland’s transcendent superhero only needed one chance.

Stephen Curry and the Warriors, meanwhile, learned how cruel the NBA Finals can be, and also how quickly the cheerleaders morph into vultures. LeBron is all too familiar with those cruelties. Cleveland’s Game 7 victory and come-from-behind series win will rightfully be remembered as the King’s coronation, the final level of his redemption tour. We all remember when The Chosen One, the child prodigy, the next Jordan became a selfish, presumptive, entitled brat in the eyes of many overnight in the summer of 2010 with the ‘Decision.’ For the first time in LeBron’s life, he was the villain, a role he embraced more as a coping mechanism than a fundamental identity. His Heat team would win two titles, but lose two others as the stain on his legacy seemed to be written in permanent ink.

It wasn’t long ago that the Warriors were the darlings of the NBA. Remember when Draymond Green was the scrappy second-round pick, passed over due to his lack of size and ironically now using that unique body to anchor the best lineup we’ve ever seen? After two months of playoffs he’s a nut-punching pariah, heir to the throne of professional heels Bill Laimbeer and Dennis Rodman. Remember the Baby-Faced Assassin, whose proficiency from long range was overshadowed only by his affability and boyish charm? Now in the eyes of many, Curry is a fraud. How dare you fool us into believing you were the best player in the world? LeBron reclaimed that title, while denying Steph his repeat championship and crushing the MVP’s pride with blocked shot after blocked shot:

How quickly the script gets flipped. In this zero-sum game, the prodigal King and his band of underdogs from the sad sack sports town of Cleveland reach the peak of the NBA mountain while the greatest regular season team of all time gets tossed down the stairs, everything they stand for repeatedly kicked on the way down. I’d be shocked if there wasn’t some secret rendezvous last night, where the likes of Charles Barkley, Tracy McGrady, Scottie Pippen and Oscar Robertson toasted to the death of the Warriors’ brand of basketball.

At one point it seemed Golden State had found the cheat code to the NBA, quickly skipping all the steps it is assumed must be taken before becoming elite. Michael Jordan took his lumps from the Pistons, who had to overcome the Celtics and Lakers before being crowned. The Warriors’ rapid success under Steve Kerr helped sour many who never snatched the Larry O’Brien trophy (ahem, Barkley). Golden State won the title last year without ever tasting the pain of being so close, yet so far away. The Warriors now have their “almost” moment. As Curry said afterward, that pain will stick with them for a long, long time. It will be fascinating to see how they respond next season, and also whether the grumpy commentariat suddenly show them some respect now that they’ve been humbled.

No doubt the Warriors made mistakes. It seems they took the Cavs lightly after jumping out to 2-0 and 3-1 series leads. Green’s suspension likely cost them Game 5. Kerr’s knack for playing too many guys came back to bite him, as Anderson Varejao and Festus Ezeli were given atrocious Game 7 minutes. Both Ezeli and Harrison Barnes cratered their earning potential this offseason by no-showing through most of the Finals. Curry was never the same after slipping on Donatas Motiejunas’ sweat puddle in the Houston series. Steph’s balky knee is not an excuse, it’s a plain fact. He was noticeably slower with the ball in his hands, lacked quickness on defense and struggled to gain his usual separation behind the 3-point line. Be it hubris, injury, poor clutch play or loss of composure, there is plenty of blame to go around in Oakland. They had the better team, which almost always means victory in a seven-game series in the NBA.

But in the end, this was all about LeBron. He led all players in the series in points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks. He followed up two straight 41-point elimination game outings with a triple-double in Game 7. Multiple times during the last three games I exclaimed to whoever I was with, “He’s EVERYWHERE.” The chase-down blocks will live on in NBA promotional footage for decades, but the consistent rim protection even in the half court had the once-cocky Warriors afraid to attempt a layup. He went home to Cleveland, heavily influenced the makeup of the team and made himself responsible for whatever ended up happening on the court. When the Cavs’ season looked to be destined for another Cleveland ending, James played the best basketball of his life, beating the Warriors twice in Oracle Arena and handing them their first three-game losing streak of the entire season. His partner Kyrie’s step-back three over Curry in a “How does your medicine taste?” move was the cherry on top.

LeBron showed his teammates and the city of Cleveland it’s OK to believe in dreams.

For the Warriors, who matched their regular season loss total (9) in the playoffs, the nightmare endures.

A Golden Nosedive (aka Thunder in 5)

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The collapse of the 73-win, record-breaking Warriors was swift, and total. The setting was an Oklahoma house of horrors, where the defending champs laid down (Harrison Barnes, literally) in a way that seemed unthinkable just a month ago. In two straight high stakes games the MVP and his merry band of ballers were embarrassed, flabbergasted, annihilated.

There’s no question at this point that the Thunder are the better team. Russell Westbrook, Kevin Durant, Serge Ibaka and Steven Adams have been the best four players on the court in three of the four games. The series goes back to Oakland at 3-1, but the next time OKC sees its home building will be in the NBA Finals. We’ve seen this movie before. Just two years ago, a much-ballyhooed superteam in Miami, led by LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh, were flattened by a Spurs team composing its basketball masterpiece. We are witnessing the Thunder’s “5th Symphony.”

Improbably, the record-breaking Warriors, who up until last night hadn’t lost two games in a row all season, go home with their tails between their legs facing almost certain elimination. How did it go so wrong? Let me count the ways:

  • Draymond Green completely disappeared. After the “kick to the balls heard ’round the world” Green weirdly self-destructed.  The one-time triple-double machine has failed to notched one in his last two games combined (12 points, 15 rebounds, 5 assists). He’s also a -73 in those disastrous two games. Maybe a suspension would’ve helped?
  • Steph Curry reverted to his pre-MVP careless self as he lost his patented quickness due to a knee injury. OKC has done a phenomenal job bodying him up, as the refs are letting plenty of contact go. Westbrook is staying glued to him in 1-on-1 situations and it’s obvious Curry has lost a step since the MCL injury. He can’t create separation like he’s used to, and has become a turnover machine at the worst possible time (six in Game). He also can’t make a layup for some reason.
  • They were murdered on the glass, to the tune of 56-40  (16 of them offensive rebounds) in Game 4. That followed a 52-38 beat down in Game 3. Too many times the Dubs were one-and-done while the Thunder got multiple cracks at a key bucket.
  • They resorted to non-stop fouling. It seemed every time I looked up Durant, Westbrook or Adams was on the free throw line in Games 3 and 4. The Thunder shot 77 free throws in the last two games.
  • Defensively they fell apart. This may be the ultimate explanation of their demise. In the regular season, Golden State ranked fifth in defensive rating. They won the title last year largely because it was so hard to score on them for long stretches. Their positional versatility was the trump card when things got tight late in games. Yet the Thunder have obliterated them in both transition and the half court. Their two superstars are getting 55+ points per game and the role players, a question mark all season, have stepped up big. In Games 3 & 4, the 73-win Golden State Warriors gave up 251 total points. That’s not a misprint.
  • Billy Donovan shocked the world (well, NBA Twitter) by outcoaching Steve Kerr. Donovan abandoned the Enes Kanter/Adams combo that was the Spurs’ kryptonite early on, favoring a smaller, quicker lineup with Ibaka picking up rim-protecting and switching duties. Meanwhile the Coach of the Year Kerr has thrown way too many guys into his rotations. Anderson Varejao, Brandon Rush and Ian Clark should not be seeing non-garbage time minutes in a conference finals. Festus Ezeli couldn’t hit a free throw, yet Kerr kept going to him when it was clear OKC was going to keep putting him on the line. The strategy to turn Andre Roberson into Tony Allen by completely ignoring him defensively backfired when Roberson started hitting threes at will. It just seems like Kerr is getting flustered on the sideline just as much as his team is on the court. Again, unthinkable stuff.

Many of these factors are linked. Teams that are getting manhandled on the boards foul out of frustration. Same goes for a team that’s getting out hustled to every loose ball. The 50/50 balls have been more like 90/10 for the Thunder. Coach Kerr is scrambling for solutions as he sees his team give up flurries of points, leading to uncharacteristic coaching blunders. OKC’s frantic defense, predicated on switching, closing out hard on shooters and denying everything at the rim, has discombobulated the Warriors into forced and unforced turnovers. The trapping on a less than 100 percent Curry leads to erratic passing, leads to fast breaks, leads to crowd explosions.

A staple in this historic two-year run for Golden State has been their sense of calm under pressure, their uncanny knack for getting hot at the right time. Russ, KD and the awesome Oklahoma City crowd have stolen their resolve. Don’t count on them giving it back. Sure, the next game is in Oakland and a Game 7 would be too, if the Earth’s rotation reversed and we somehow got to a Game 7. But there’s simply no coming back from this type of utter embarrassment in two straight conference finals games. The Warriors are beaten just as absolutely as those 2014 Heat were going into Game 5 in San Antonio.

So, Thunder in 5. Imagine the odds you could have gotten on that bet. Almost as juicy as picking a Thunder-Raptors Finals. Sheesh. The NBA universe is inverted. Pull the wool from over your eyes. Time is a flat circle (maybe this has to do with Matthew McConaughey and his damn Lincoln ads).

Prove me wrong Dubs, please. We’ve been looking forward to the Western Conference Finals all season. Congrats to OKC and all, but five games is a colossal rip-off for NBA junkies. What a sad ending to this fairy tale.