spurs

Who Among Us Hasn’t Tanked?

~ dnathanfati ~ 2 Comments

It’s been a week since the (probably) forced resignation of Sam Hinkie, ending the great tanking experiment of the Philadelphia 76ers and inspiring one last wave of think pieces about the “Process”. Fear not, this won’t be yet another profound critique of Hinkie’s three-year reign. Besides nothing can top Hinkie’s own rambling, TED Talk-esque manifesto of a resignation letter.

Instead, something that Zach Lowe said on his podcast piqued my interest and I’d like to explore it further. In the Lowe Post episode that followed his podcast with Hankie (weirdly, one day prior to Hinkie’s resignation), he pointed out that just about everyone has tanked at some point or another, so it’s somewhat hypocritical to say what Hinkie pulled was some sort of radical new ground. Perhaps the Sixers went overboard with the strategy, but no NBA team is above tanking. Not the Celtics, not the Lakers, not even the high-class Spurs. Below, we’ll go through each NBA team, examine a season in which they tanked and what came of each tanking. See the Warriors’ section to understand the successful tanking equation: one part sheer luck meets one part smart drafting. Hinkie had neither ingredient, hence why he is out of a job – bottom line.

A History of Tanking Continue reading →

Up & Down – Jan. 26, 2016

~ dnathanfati ~ 1 Comment

Time for our first 2016 installment of Up & Down, a look into NBA teams, players, coaches, etc. that are trending one way or another. The scope of this effort will mostly take into account the month of January.

We’re getting into the time of the season where the contenders separate themselves from the pretenders, and teams figure out their true identity. Injuries are becoming more of a factor as minutes pile up, and certain stars are posting huge numbers after finding their rhythm. In an odd turn of events, two of the four conference finals coaches from last season have been fired, the second firing coming in the same week as a superstar breaking his hand punching an equipment guy. The NBA never disappoints!

Who’s Up?

The Unbelievable Golden State Warriors – A friend and I were discussing the Warriors this weekend, as we watched them toy with the Pacers in the fourth quarter. While Steph hit threes with his signature swagger attached and darted through the lane en route to circus baskets in traffic, and Draymond Green bent the laws of physics with cross court bounce passes, we mused how awesome it must be to be a Warrior right now. To be the best and know it. To be cocky and back it up. To put on a show for an adoring crowd as a matter of routine. It’s every dude’s dream. It’s also refreshing to see a team have so much fun playing a fun game.

The fun continued last night as the Warriors showed no mercy on San Antonio in what was billed as a clash of the titans. It turned out to be “boys against men” as Spurs coach Gregg Popovich said afterward. Indeed it was one regular season game, but the sheer dominance leaves one wondering if the rest of the season is just a formality before the Dubs’ second straight championship parade. My big question coming in was whose playing style would win out – which team would impose its will on the other? The Spurs bring size, suffocating defense and a slower pace than most teams. On paper they may have the horses to match up with Steph and Klay, and if they slowed the game down to a crawl Golden State may struggle manufacturing points in the half court. But it was clear the Warriors from the start the Warriors weren’t going to change their approach because of their opponent. They pushed the pace off every defensive rebound and even most Spurs makes, Steph or Shaun Livingston racing the ball up the court before the defense could get set. They forced 26 turnovers, turning those opportunities into quick buckets. Green baffled LaMarcus Aldridge, not allowing him to get comfortable in isolations. Kawhi somehow got lost in the shuffle. It was over after three quarters, with Steph scoring 37 of the Warriors 95 points to that point. It should be noted the Spurs came in giving up just 89 points PER GAME.

Before dominating the Spurs, the Dubs crushed the Cavs, Bulls and Pacers in rapid succession. 73-9 is squarely in the crosshairs.

Boogie Cousins – The Kings’ big man is in the midst of an epic January. In his last 10 games, Boogie is averaging 36.6 points and 13.8 rebounds per game. More importantly the Kings are 6-4 in those games and clinging to the 8th seed in the West. It seems Cousins and George Karl have improved their relationship, and Boogie hasn’t melted down on the court yet in 2016. If he ever had justification to, it was last night against the Hornets. Cousins had 56 points and the Internet was rooting for 60. In double overtime, he secured a monster offensive rebound in traffic and made a monster move to the rack for two points. But noooooo. Frank Kaminsky took contact form Boogie and launched himself backward, drawing Cousins’ sixth foul. There’s no way that call should be made, especially not on a bang-bang hustle play in double OT with a guy angling for 60 points. Post men everywhere sympathize with Boogie. I tweeted that I was surprised he didn’t choke somebody out after that garbage call, but to his credit he didn’t make a scene and stayed put on the end of the bench (albeit flanked by an army of team personnel).

James Harden – The bearded enigma of the disappointing Houston Rockets (their new official team name) has some alive of late, putting together some amazing stat lines. It seems he’s played his way into shape after refusing to do so in the offseason. I’ve said it before and I’ll continue to say it, the league is a better place with Harden at the top of his game, stirring the pot literally and figuratively. On Sunday against the Mavericks, Harden put up 23 points, 15 rebounds, 10 assists and 2 blocks; he followed it up the next night against the Pelicans with 35 points, 11 boards and 8 dimes. Last week he had a ridiculous 33-17-14 in that foul-plagued game against the Pistons. Astounding numbers, and the Rockets are playing a bit better as a team, mostly on the back of the Beard.

Kemba & the Hornets – Much has been made of Kemba Walker’s all-around improvement this season. Once feared to be nothing more than a low percentage scorer that takes more off the table than he puts on, Walker has flourished this year with career highs in field goal percentage, true shooting percentage, three point shooting and PER. On January 18 he scored 52 on the Jazz, and four days later dropped 40 versus Orlando. After an early January swoon, the Hornets have won four of five and remain in the East playoff race. With reports that Michael Kidd-Gilchrist will return sooner than expected things are looking up in Charlotte, relatively.

Rookies! – As packed as the NBA is in star talent, the last couple draft classes haven’t been spectacular. This year, however, a new influx of potential superstars, future All Stars and quality role players is being injected into the mix. Karl Antony-Towns and Kristaps Porzingis have nearly unlimited ceilings as versatile and athletic big men that can shoot. They fit right into where the league is going and could push the game to different levels in the years to come. Jahlil Okafor and D’Angelo Russell are toiling on terrible teams but producing and offering hope for the near future. Emmanuel Mudiay has been up and down, while battling injuries, but he’s shown flashes of brilliance. Devin Booker is the one bright spot on the Suns and Justise Winslow is an improved jumper away from being a star on both ends. Others that are playing meaningful minutes as key role players for their teams: Myles Turner, Trey Lyles, Willie Cauley-Stein, Stanley Johnson, Cam Payne, Bobby Portis, Larry Nance Jr., Frank Kaminsky and Jonathon Simmons. In all, 11 first rounders are currently averaging over 20 minutes per game.

Nuggets – Denver is 17-28 and likely not going to the postseason, but they’ve been pretty good! GM Tim Connelly was recently given a well-earned extension, after building a team that has Denver’s prospects looking much better than expected in short order. The Mudiay pick was a good one, he’s found diamonds in the rough in Nikola Jokic, Gary Harris, Will Barton and Jusuf Nurkic, and the bet on Danilo Gallinari is paying off. With a sharp coach in Mike Malone, the future is bright for the Nugs.

Kings – Mostly covered in the Boogie section, George Karl’s team is coming together against all odds. It should be noted that Rajon Rondo is back to his expert distributing ways – 20 assists last night against the Hornets.

Who’s Down?

Blake Griffin – First he tore his quadriceps, then he saw his team actually play better on the court, going 12-3 since his injury. Then the dreaded “undisclosed team-related incident” left him with a broken hand that will force him to miss 4-6 more weeks of action. News trickled out today that the incident was actually a fight with a team equipment staffer that started in a restaurant and spilled outside, where Griffin punched the man at least once, breaking his own hand. Now I’m not here to judge, as I have suffered multiple “boxer’s fractures” due to fisticuffs. But with the team releasing a statement that the behavior won’t be tolerated and that they’re conducting an investigation with the NBA, Blake has earned himself a place in the Who’s Down section, to be sure.

Suns – Since Eric Bledsoe went down for the season, they’ve completely fallen apart on the court, fired two assistant coaches, killed most of Markieff Morris’ trade value and saw their owner go on an anti-Millennial tirade. Coach Jeff Hornacek doesn’t really seem like he wants to be there anymore, yet he may not be fired anytime soon. Once a playoff hopeful, they are headed for one of the worst records in the league. Just a weird, toxic situation.

Cavaliers – Though the clear favorite in the East, Cleveland was beaten by the Spurs and demolished by the Warriors, leading to David Blatt’s much-ballyhooed firing. On the heels of the coaching change, word started trickling out from reporters like Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo! that LeBron James and Rich Paul had orchestrated Blatt’s fate since the beginning of James’ return to Cleveland. GM David Griffin is between a rock and a hard place, juggling the unprecedented power of his star player with the volatility of owner Dan Gilbert. Respected and accomplished coaches like Rick Carlisle and Gregg Popovich have fired shots at the Cavs hastily ousting Blatt. It seems replacement Tyronn Lue was not James’ first choice (he wanted Mark Jackson of all people) and Lue’s first game was a lopsided loss to Chicago. Problems with Kevin Love’s fit and Kyrie Irving’s ball-dominance and lack of defense continue to hound the team, even as they remain atop the East.

Bradley Beal – The talented 2-guard in Washington just can’t stay on the floor. He’s played just 22 games this season due to more soft-tissue injuries. He’s never played more than 73 games in a regular season. And now he’s suffered a broken nose and concussion thanks to a Marcus Smart elbow, which will force him to miss more time. With his free agency impending, suitors may be scared away by his fragility. Meanwhile, John Wall is left to keep Washington afloat by himself. Their playoff prospects are dimming.

Perpetually Both Up & Down

Bulls – What I imagine the barroom conversations are like in Chicago…

“Wow, the Bulls won six straight in late December / early January? They might be coming on finally…oh never mind they just lost four of five. They suck.”

“Jimmy Butler scored 40 in the second half, in Toronto!? JIMMYYY!”

“They needed OT to beat the Sixers? Oh but Jimmy Butler had 50 points so that’s cool. JIMMYYYY BUCKETS!”

“They only scored 77 against the Mavericks? At home? Nice new offense Hoiberg. We never shoulda fired Thibs!”

“Warriors killed them, OK, but the Celtics? Terrible. I bet the Cavs will kill them tomorrow, even if they have da team mascot coaching them.”

“Da Bulls killed the Cavs! D-Rose is playing like his old self, getting to the rim, they said it on TV and everything! 1-seed here we come!”

“84 points and a loss at home to the Heat? What the? At least Derrick is looking goo…what’s that, D-Rose left with another injury? Pussy…”

Shifting Conference Tectonics as 2016 Begins

~ dnathanfati ~ Leave a comment

Welcome to 2016, loyal DotB readers!

The first two months of the season are in the books and I’m here to kick off 2016 with a deep dive into the two conferences, followed by a Power Rankings level-set. I will examine where I was right at the start of the season and eat a large plate of crow for all the teams I guessed wrong on. Each year teams surprise us with out of nowhere starts and unexpected falls from grace but this year is especially filled with upheaval. It’s part of what makes the league fun to follow and keeps us on our toes. To wit, I am in a four-man win total “fantasy” league and I thought I staged a coup with my draft picks in the preseason. Those picks were OKC, Houston, Washington, Detroit, Milwaukee, Denver and Utah. Yikes. Thanks to the Rockets, Wiz, Bucks and Jazz I am in dead last as we start 2016.

Perhaps the biggest story of the first two months for me is the shifting balance of power in the conferences. For years I’ve been fascinated with the West’s consistent dominance and curious as to how one conference can stay in power for so long. However, though the top three teams in the NBA all reside out West, the bottom falls out quickly in that usually loaded conference. It’s likely that this season the West will have two playoff teams under .500, a dubious feat that the East had cornered the market on in recent years. You have to go back to 1996-97 for the last time the West fielded a below-.500 playoff participant (there were actually three that year!). Last season’s 8-seed (New Orleans) had 45 wins and the year before that Dallas finished eighth with 49.

So it begs the questions: is this just a down year that the West was long overdue for, a blip on the radar that will right itself quickly? Or is this a sign of a changing of the power structure in the NBA? I’ll look at it through a few prisms – Superstar Arms Race, Second-tier Stars and Randomness.

The easiest way – outside of win/loss records – to determine prowess in the NBA is star power. The way that teams acquire stars (mostly) is through the Draft. So I decided to look at recent Drafts to see if any patterns emerged that have hurt the West and empowered the East.

By and large, after the year LeBron, Bosh and Wade entered the league (2003-04) up until 2009, the West did a better job of getting superstars through the draft, which is a key reason behind its continued big brother status. Here are a few names you may be familiar with: Chris Paul (’05, New Orleans), Blake Griffin (’09, Clippers), Kevin Durant (’07, Sonics/OKC), Russell Westbrook (’08, Sonics/OKC), Steph Curry (’09, Warriors), James Harden (’09, OKC), Lamarcus Aldridge (’06, Blazers via trade).

Since the 2010 Draft, the West has continue to add bona fide and/or potential superstars like Demarcus Cousins (’10, Kings), Klay Thompson (’11, Warriors), Kawhi Leonard (’11 Spurs via trade), Damian Lillard (2012), Anthony Davis (2012), Draymond Green (2012), Andrew Wiggins (2014) and Karl Anthony-Towns (2015).

Here’s how the East has done since 2010:

’10 – John Wall, Paul George

’11 – Kyrie Irving, Kemba Walker, Jimmy Butler

’12 – Bradley Beal, Andre Drummond

’13 – Giannis Antetokounmpo

’14 – Jabari Parker

’15 – Kristaps Porzingis, Jahlil Okafor

I’d take Boogie, Klay, Kawhi, Dame and AD in a heartbeat over the East’s top five drafted stars since 2010 (with Draymond off the bench – wow). So even though the East done a better job in the last five years through the Draft, it still lost ground in the Superstar Arms Race with the West. This would seem to point to 2015-16 being an aberration, rather than the beginning of a decline for the West. It’s a superstar-driven league.

The East did, however, seem to add more Second-tier Stars (guys like Beal, Walker, Giannis) since 2010. That may be a function of continually bagging more high lottery picks. Each conference sends seven teams to the lottery each year, but the teams with the worst records have a better chance at picking high in the top 10. Since 2008, the East had 44 top 10 picks, to the West’s 36. That has to impact overall roster depth in due time. I combed through the players picked in those draft since ’08 and – admittedly somewhat subjectively – tallied up how many of those lottery picks are impactful NBA players in 2016. Thirty-six impact players from the last eight drafts reside in the East, while just 28 play in the West. This would tend to suggest that the East has gotten deeper if not necessarily more star-studded in recent years. This line of thinking seems to fit teams like Boston, Charlotte, Orlando, Atlanta, Detroit and Toronto – all playoff-contending, over-.500 East teams for much of this season that don’t boast many huge names on their rosters. Meanwhile, such star-led teams in the West like Houston (Harden, Dwight Howard), New Orleans (Davis), Sacramento (Cousins), L.A. Lakers (Kobe) and Portland (Dame) have struggled at least in part due to lack of quality depth. My verdict here – the Second-tier Stars factor is real, and could continue to tip the scales East-ward. The current 2-10 seeds in the East may not be title contenders but they are tough on a nightly basis thanks to deep rotations and can all finish with winning records.

The last, by definition impossible to quantify measure, is randomness. Here are some random, quirky things that have made the East better in 2015-16 and/or the West worse…

  • Conglomeration of talent at the top of the West. Aldridge went to San Antonio in the offseason, effectively creating a super team in the Spurs and turning a 50-win Blazers team into Lottery fodder. The Warriors kept their loaded roster intact after a historic season. The return of the KD-Russ-Ibaka trio at full health has made OKC a powerhouse again. The Clippers have struggled some but still have one of the top starting 5’s in the NBA talent-wise.
  • Houston forgetting that it was basketball season. They’ve gotten a coach fired, had many on-court bickering matches and sport some of the worst (laziest) transition defense in the league. After a conference finals appearance, the Rockets are the most disappointing team in the league, yet will make the playoffs by default. Slated for 55 or so wins, they will be lucky to finish .500. Can’t wait for them to sleep through a Round 1 loss.
  • The Plague hitting New Orleans. A supposed shoo-in to build upon last season’s 45-win playoff team, they barely have enough NBA players most nights thanks to a rash of injuries.
  • Memphis got old, Phoenix imploded and the Kings, Nuggets and Blazers aren’t ready for primetime.
  • Injuries have disproportionately hit the West. Eric Bledsoe is lost for the year, the Nuggets and Pelicans are decimated, Mike Conley and Lillard have missed time. Even the 32-2 Warriors have been hit by injuries, not that it’s hurt them much.
  • Unlike most recent years, the East only has two doormats in Philly and Brooklyn. The Magic, Hornets, Pistons, Knicks and Pacers have graduated up a level or two thanks to improved coaching (Magic, Hornets, Pistons), a healthy Paul George (Pacers) and an influx of respectable talent (Knicks). As bad as Washington and Milwaukee have been compared to expectations, they can be tough on any given night.
  • Coaching performances. Stan Van Gundy, Frank Vogel, Brad Stevens, Mike Budenholzer, David Blatt, Scott Skiles, Steve Clifford, Eric Spoelstra and Dwayne Casey have done great jobs this year. They all coach teams in the East.

After considering these factors – a combination of great coaching, an uptick in roster depth and random cataclysm striking the West – I tend to conclude that the shifting in conference tectonics this year has been more a blip than a new world order. When it comes to the NBA I will always side with the Superstars, and there are just more of them out West. Besides, Golden State and San Antonio are miles ahead of anyone else in the league and OKC edges out Cleveland for No. 3 in my Power Rankings. So chances are the West will still wear the crown that matters when the season ends. The regular season crown is a good start for the East though as it fights for respectability, and I’m excited to see a much more balanced NBA going forward.

Here’s to a great new year of pro basketball, and my inaugural 2016 Power Rankings will be right up!

So You Want to Be the Warriors?

~ dnathanfati ~ 1 Comment
The Warriors' secret ingredients
The Warriors’ secret ingredients

Look at the NBA landscape and things are pretty clear – it’s the Warriors, and everyone else. The Dubs, fresh off a championship, have come out firing to a 5-0 record, against four teams that were in last year’s Western Conference playoffs. Not until Wednesday’s thrilling win over the Clippers had the Warriors even had to sweat in a fourth quarter. Steph Curry is lethal and it seems each key cog has somehow improved from last year.

Naturally, the league’s other teams want to emulate Golden State. They are the standard-bearer for NBA excellence, sure, but the effort to transform into a Warriors-like identity is especially strong because they are viewed as unorthodox. They’re challenging convention by playing small, fast and with a deep bench. Ask 10 casual fans about who the Warriors are and I bet nine of them will talk about their pace and knack for outside shooting. It’s only part of the answer, however. Several teams have latched onto this half-truth in building their rosters, coaching staffs and overall identity.

Teams seem to forget the main ingredient in the Warriors’ hearty basketball stew – DEFENSE.

Yes, Curry is in the conversation for best scoring point guard of all time. Indeed, the Warriors led the league last year in pace, scoring, effective field goal percentage and three-point percentage, while finishing second in offensive rating. But it was their versatile and suffocating defense that drove the Dubs to 67 wins and an NBA title. Pace and space is a great concept, until your stretch four is getting smoked on the perimeter and your “rim protector” is getting dunked on (See: Mirotic, Nikola and Gasol, Pau).

I’m going to pick on the Bulls for another minute because I watch most of their games and I still can’t believe Charlotte hung 130 on them Tuesday night. Chicago scored 105 in that game, something they did 29 times in 2014-15. Last season, under Tom Thibodeaux, the Bulls went 24-5 in games in which they scored at least 105 points, winning those 24 games by an average of 11 points. They never lost by more than 11 when scoring that much, and in fact all season only allowed 130+ once, in a double overtime loss to the Mavericks. After kicking Thibs to the curb, the Bulls’ brain trust took major steps to Warriorize the team, bringing in Fred Hoiberg to install his pace-and-space, three point-heavy system. Hoiberg immediately moved Joakim Noah to the bench and is using stretch lineups with more shooters on the floor, such as Doug McDermott, Nikola Mirotic and Aaron Brooks. In a vacuum, this all makes perfect sense for a plodding offensive team looking to change its ways.

But the Bulls, and others such as the Pacers, Mavericks, Pelicans and even the Thunder, are missing the forest for the trees. There is a foundational dilemma at the heart of the small-ball revolution. How do you score in bunches, push the pace and create matchup nightmares for opponents on one end, while not becoming a sieve on the other end? Is it possible to gain the upper hand in matchups on both ends and blow teams out of the gym? If you’ve constructed a roster like the Warriors, then yes and yes. The LeBron-era Heat and the 2013-14 Spurs also proved the model. Teams that are playing small for small’s sake and not emphasizing the defensive end are setting themselves up for some ugly nights. Like when you give up 130 to Charlotte, those kind of nights. The Spurs were able to surround Tim Duncan’s rim protection with three or four deadly shooters. The Heatles had LeBron, Wade and Bosh in their primes and featured a trapping, frenzied defensive scheme that made up for lack of size in the middle.

Golden State works because they can go small or big, while always rolling out lineups that can switch screens, protect the rim and force turnovers. They have Draymond Green and nobody else does. He can cover quick guards for stretches on the perimeter, switch any screen and as he showed against Zach Randolph in the Warriors’ 50-point demolition of Memphis, he can body up almost any big. His unique talents combined with the rim protection and rebounding of Andrew Bogut allows Golden State to go small or super-small and never give up much defensive integrity in the paint. Klay Thompson, Harrison Barnes and Andre Iguodala are swiss-army knives on the perimeter that can switch to big men without allowing easy buckets. Throw all of this together with their shooting and running ability. The result is a championship-proven monolith that may not be replicable. The Warriors have set a standard that is not statistically attainable. Here are some Warriors numbers from last season to go with the offensive ranks listed above: 1st in opponent’s field goal percentage (.428), 1st in defensive rating, 1st in margin of victory, 2nd in blocks, 4th in steals, 5th in opponent’s turnovers, 6th in rebounding. Dear Lord.

Good luck matching that with Mirotic and Gasol playing more minutes than Noah and Taj Gibson. Or with Paul George at the four, next to Ian Mahinmi. Or with Enes Kanter taking minutes from Steven Adams.

OKC and Chicago are breaking in first-year coaches, and the season is very young. They may well figure out the right mix of minutes, tempo and defensive strategies. But they don’t have – and no one does – the roster versatility on both ends that Golden State has. They’d be well served to do like the rest of us: simply watch the Warriors in awe and try to make their own way.

What We Might Know After a Week (Western Conference)

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What might we know after a week of NBA games? After looking at some data…maybe, probably nothing. But we can look at what last year’s standings were after each team played three games, and where that jived with or diverted from final standings. After waiting breathlessly all offseason for NBA action and eager to understand the league power structure, I crave context. We’ll start with the Western Conference.

Each team in the West except for Minnesota has played three games through Sunday. Golden State, Oklahoma City, LAC and as we all expected, Minnesota, are your undefeated teams out West. Very surprisingly, Houston and New Orleans are winless. Quite unsurprisingly, so are the Lakers. Here are your very early Western Conference standings

Team W L
1 Warriors 3 0
1 Thunder 3 0
1 Clippers 3 0
4 T-Wolves 2 0
5 Grizzlies 2 1
5 Spurs 2 1
5 Mavericks 2 1
5 Suns 2 1
5 Jazz 2 1
10 Blazers 1 2
10 Nuggets 1 2
10 Kings 1 2
13 Lakers 0 3
13 Pelicans 0 3
13 Rockets 0 3

Through three games last season here were the West standings, compared with how the teams ranked at the end of the season.

14-’15 Team W L   Final Standings W L
1 Warriors 3 0 1 Warriors 67 15
1 Rockets 3 0 2 Rockets 56 26
1 Grizzlies 3 0 2 Clippers 56 26
4 Spurs 2 1 4 Spurs 55 27
4 Mavericks 2 1 4 Grizzlies 55 27
4 Clippers 2 1 6 Blazers 51 31
4 Kings 2 1 7 Mavericks 50 32
4 Suns 2 1 8 Pelicans 45 37
9 Thunder 1 2 8 Thunder 45 37
9 Pelicans 1 2 10 Suns 39 43
9 Nuggets 1 2 11 Jazz 38 44
9 Blazers 1 2 12 Nuggets 30 52
9 Jazz 1 2 13 Kings 29 53
9 T-Wolves 1 2 14 Lakers 21 61
15 Lakers 0 3 15 T-Wolves 16 66

At first glance, the first three games of 2014-15 were actually a great representation of the conference power rankings. The Kings’ early start last year was fool’s gold, at least once Vivek Ranadive ran amok and fired Michael Malone. The Mavericks ended up slipping a little in the standings but still winning 50 games and the Suns fell out of the playoff race, while the Pelicans rose into the playoff picture. So let’s take a look at this year. Do I really think Minnesota is a playoff team? Of course not. But the rest of the top eight in the current standings all have a legitimate chance. The Warriors are monsters, on a tier of their own. The Thunder, Clippers, Spurs and Grizzlies are shoe-ins. The Suns have bounced back from that atrocious first loss to the Mavs at home and the Jazz have shown that the hype may be real.

The real question marks here are the Rockets and Pelicans. At least the Pels have an excuse in injuries, and should get better as they get healthier. But the Rockets are truly confounding, and this hole they’re digging for themselves is concerning. Not only are they 0-3, but they’ve made history by becoming the first NBA team to lose its first three games by 20 points. Yikes. They also play in the toughest division in basketball, while teams like Portland, Minny, Sacramento and even Denver aren’t playing like the pushovers we once assumed. So while it’s very early, climbing out of that hole won’t be easy. Things are fundamentally wrong with this team, which is predicated on three point shooting, getting to the line and running teams out of the gym. Right now James Harden is in a terrible slump, shooting just 3-32 from three.

The team is following its struggling star’s lead, clocking in at third-worst in the league in three-point percentage, at just 25%. Last season they were second in the NBA in free throw attempts, but this season they rank 12th through three games. Most surprisingly, the Rockets are scoring only 88.7 points per game, tied with Brooklyn for second-lowest in the league.

They are due for some positive regression. But it’s a major red flag that after making the Conference Finals, adding depth across the board and bringing in the speedy Ty Lawson, the Rockets are playing slower, less efficiently and with the intensity of an Oregon drum circle. Last season I had doubts about a team led by Harden and Dwight Howard, who are not the most rah-rah locker room guys. But those doubts were erased after the incredible playoff run that included one of the greatest comebacks I’ve ever seen against the Clippers in Game 6. Now I’m just confused.

Who knows, maybe Josh Smith was the glue holding Clutch City together. Could we have been wrong about Josh all these years?

A July Snapshot of the Association

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The draft, free agency and Summer League have come and gone, and we are now entering the dog days of the NBA calendar. It’s this time of year that I love to speculate on where teams sit and critique roster-building plans. Below I’ve separated teams by rough groupings, to organize my thoughts about each squad’s place in the pecking order. I will be delving deeper into each of these categories in the days to come.

Contenders – teams that will be in the hunt in late May

Warriors – The Champs bring back just about everybody, while finding relief from David Lee’s monster cap hit. The talent, depth and versatility they bring to the table makes them favorites for a title defense, barring injury.

Spurs – A ridiculous offseason has the Spurs back in the championship race. It will be interesting to see how the new pieces fit and how LMA adapts to the Spurs’ pace. They could be devastating.

Rockets – I love what they did this offseason. Assuming Ty Lawson gets himself together, these guys are fast, deep and versatile in the mold of the Warriors. I like every player on their roster.

Thunder – With their stars back healthy the Thunder still have the best top three in the league. Can Enes Kanter contribute without killing an already suspect defense? Will Billy Donovan’s coaching provide a bump after the Scott Brooks era was finally put out of its misery? Most important will KD, Russ and Serge stay on the court?

Grizzlies – While the rest of the NBA zigs, they zag. Focus on controlling a slower pace and letting their bigs dominate has been fruitful for the Grizzlies and the addition of Brandan Wright is huge behind Marc Gasol. Can they solve the outside shooting issues that have prevented them from getting over the hump?

Cavaliers – They likely will breeze through the East with Dan Gilbert writing all those checks and LeBron in Year 2 of the Cavs reboot. David Blatt or Coach LeBron need to show Kevin some more love.

Bulls – The Mayor Freddie Hoiberg looks to change the culture, hopefully improving a stagnant offense and playing his guys sane minutes. Bulls are a fringe contender, I fully admit my homerism factored into putting them up in this tier.

Quasi-contenders – Teams that may have an inflated belief in their chances

Clippers – Doc GM has made some curious moves, but when all was said and done I actually like what they pulled off this summer. Lance Stephenson is better off the bench than in a star role, and the DeAndre coup was very necessary. Not to mention the Paul Pierce reunion.

Hawks – Setting out to prove it wasn’t a fluke last year. They won’t win 60+ games, but bring back a lot of talent. Can they replace DeMarre Carroll’s versatility?

Heat – One of the best starting 5’s in the NBA. Hoping for a Chris Bosh comeback tour after the scary blood clot and Hassan Whiteside to build on his breakout campaign. They will go as far as D-Wade’s knees take them.

Wizards – Very quiet offseason and the loss of Pierce hurts. But this is a solid team that needs a full year of John Wall and Bradley Beal holding down the backcourt together.

First round fodder – Should make the playoffs but don’t have enough to make noise

Mavericks – Did an OK job recovering from the DeAndre fiasco, but they’re old, lack depth and will be desperate for a Deron Williams renaissance that I’m not sure is possible.

Raptors – The Carroll addition was nice but they overpaid for Cory Joseph and lost Amir Johnson. I still have a  bad taste in my mouth over how they shriveled in the playoffs; Kyle Lowry needs to bounce back in a big way.

Hornets – MJ’s team seems perpetually fated to live in the middle. The Frank Kaminsky pick won’t make enough of an impact.

Celtics – A great coach and a roster full of solid role players is enough to make the playoffs in the East. Probably not enough to beat one of the top four in the first round.

Up-and-comers – My favorite group, teams that are building upon a talented foundation. May not make the playoffs but will be exciting to watch develop. Next post will be about this group, so will save my thoughts for that.

Pelicans

Bucks

Jazz

Suns

Magic

Timberwolves

Pistons

Going nowhere fast – Uggh

Kings – This team is what Judd Apatow’s ‘Trainwreck’ should have been about.

Nets – Just a depressing team trying to get out of bad salary hell.

Lakers – Waiting out Kobe’s contract while trying to develop D’Angelo Russell, Julius Randle and other young pieces.

Knicks – Carmelo’s career trajectory makes me sad. I loved watching him play for the Nuggets during my career at University of Colorado.

Nuggets – Speaking of, the Nuggets embody the fact that NBA teams can fall apart quickly. Doesn’t seem that long ago I was wearing my Anthony, Billups, Martin, Smith & Nene shirt.

Trail Blazers – Another sad NBA tale. This was a fun team last year that won 50 games and immediately lost 80% of their starting lineup to free agency.

Pacers – Have Paul George back at full strength will help, but their big man talent is nonexistent and I have visions of Monta Ellis jacking 30 shots in January while George and Frank Vogel shake their heads.

76ers – Please.