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Rising(?) East – Examining the Central Division

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Over a month into the NBA season, there are many early returns I didn’t see coming (hello Houston and NoLA), but I will take credit for predicting the rise of the Central Division. Since it’s only been a month I can’t say it’s eclipsed the Southwest Division as the class of the league, but it’s much closer than expected thanks to some stumbling teams (hello again, H-Town & N.O.).

Three of the four Central teams won again last night (Cleveland was off), leaving four teams in the division above .500 on the season. The only other division in the NBA with four teams over .500 is the surprising Southeast, where Charlotte and Orlando have overachieved to 10-8 records. Amazingly, the top eight teams in these two divisions are 35-19 against Western Conference opponents. This is where I remind you that the West has bested the East in regular season record 15 of the last 16 years. It’s only early December, but we can officially raise an eyebrow at the perpetual little brother, the East.

What’s most crazy about these early results is who is not doing well in these divisions. Unquestionably, the two worst teams in the Central/Southeast have been Milwaukee and Washington, two playoff teams that went all in to win this season. We will examine what’s wrong with them in a follow-up post.

But let’s start with the good.

Central Division

  1. Cleveland (13-5)
  2. Indiana (12-5)
  3. Chicago (11-5)
  4. Detroit (10-9)

Cleveland came in as the clear favorite to win the East and that hasn’t changed. I’m loving the all-business version of LeBron we’re getting right now; he has his guys humming and their fast start will allow Kyrie Irving to ease back into the lineup when healthy. Get Kyrie back, get Iman Shumpert back, hit full stride going into the playoffs. That’s the script for Cleveland and nothing has diverted them from it so far.

Indiana is the true surprise of the division early on. Frank Vogel is a great coach because he has shown the ability to adapt. Much like Erik Spoelstra in Miami or Gregg Popovich in San Antonio have done, Vogel has changed to fit the personnel and whims of the front office. Roster turnover is a thing that happens quickly in the NBA, especially when you factor in injuries. Before Paul George went down prior to the 2014-15 season, Indiana was one of the top teams in the West, by playing a plodding, physical style anchored in defense and rebounding. Roy Hibbert and David West were great on the boards but not ideal for spacing on offense. So Vogel shaped a team that wasn’t all that fun to watch but they were damn successful, with those bigs clogging the middle and the versatile Paul George, Lance Stephenson, George Hill wing combo slowing down shooters and creating turnovers. Losing George before the start of the season made last year a lost cause, but Indiana has quickly pivoted into a totally different attack. PG-13 is back playing at an All-NBA level on both sides of the court and the Pacers rank 11th in offensive rating, 9th in pace and 2nd in three-point percentage. The truly amazing thing is that their defense hasn’t slipped a bit when they’ve gone small. I really don’t have a great explanation for that, outside of Vogel’s game planning and George’s all-around brilliance. They are blitzing teams with one lineup that’s featuring Ian Mahinmi and Lavoy Allen as the only “bigs”to the tune of +55 points and +6 rebounds. Another lineup with Jordan Hill as the lone big is +40 in points. I have doubts on whether any of this is sustainable but the Pacers have proven me wrong thus far.

Chicago keeps winning yet I’m not quite sure how they’re doing it. As a Bulls fan I’m very happy with an 11-5 start, but I also worry about sustainability here. Let’s take a closer look. First off, who are the Bulls beating? All the good teams, seemingly. Chicago has knocked off Cleveland, OKC, San Antonio, Indiana, Charlotte and earned a nice road win in Phoenix. They played Golden State tough in Oracle before the Warriors’ practically unfair, Draymond at the 5 lineup torched them in the final two minutes. The Bulls have only scored over 100 points in five of their wins, while ranking 4th in defensive rating. So their well-renowned defense hasn’t been hurt, curiously, by Fred Hoiberg’s new system. Season-long, a Hoiberg team can’t compete with a Thibs scheme in defensive efficiency, right? (However, considering most of the roster has been around for a while, we do need to give them some credit for retaining Thibs’ principles and knowing how to play the game at a high level. They are NBA players, after all). Of their five losses, two have been in overtime and only one occurred at the United Center. So no worries right? All good, moving on…

…OK now taking my head out of the sand. There are a few concerns worth mentioning quickly. A) Derrick Rose is shooting 34% and 19%(!) from three; B) Nikola Mirotic may not actually be a good shooter (which they desperately need him to be), and his incessant pump-faking is ridiculous; C) Hoiberg has them playing 11th in pace yet 26th in offensive efficiency. So they are getting shots up quickly just not making them. If this doesn’t right itself, how can their defense possibly hold up?; D) four of the top five Bulls’ lineups in terms of +/- don’t include D-Rose, but four of the bottom five +/- lineups do include D-Rose. E) As a D-Rose fan, I’m sad.

Detroit raced out to a 5-1 start, lost four straight, then have played about even ball since. They are much improved, but still have glaring flaws, which show up in their multiple blowout losses. Six of their losses have been by nine points or more. It boils down to a serious lack of shooting. Reggie Jackson and Andre Drummond can be magic on the pick-and-roll, but when defenses clamp down and force Detroit to beat them from the outside, they simply don’t have the firepower. Marcus Morris is shooting just 28% from three, so not doing his part to stretch the defense, while Stanley Johnson has shown flashes and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has been up and down. On nights when they can be close to league average in field goal / three point shooting they will be dangerous. Once they get Brandon Jennings back, they may get a much needed shot in the arm, at least for small stretches. But basketball is definitely back in the Motor City, and I can’t get enough of Mr. Drummond.

Southeast Division breakdown coming up next…

 

So You Want to Be the Warriors?

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The Warriors' secret ingredients
The Warriors’ secret ingredients

Look at the NBA landscape and things are pretty clear – it’s the Warriors, and everyone else. The Dubs, fresh off a championship, have come out firing to a 5-0 record, against four teams that were in last year’s Western Conference playoffs. Not until Wednesday’s thrilling win over the Clippers had the Warriors even had to sweat in a fourth quarter. Steph Curry is lethal and it seems each key cog has somehow improved from last year.

Naturally, the league’s other teams want to emulate Golden State. They are the standard-bearer for NBA excellence, sure, but the effort to transform into a Warriors-like identity is especially strong because they are viewed as unorthodox. They’re challenging convention by playing small, fast and with a deep bench. Ask 10 casual fans about who the Warriors are and I bet nine of them will talk about their pace and knack for outside shooting. It’s only part of the answer, however. Several teams have latched onto this half-truth in building their rosters, coaching staffs and overall identity.

Teams seem to forget the main ingredient in the Warriors’ hearty basketball stew – DEFENSE.

Yes, Curry is in the conversation for best scoring point guard of all time. Indeed, the Warriors led the league last year in pace, scoring, effective field goal percentage and three-point percentage, while finishing second in offensive rating. But it was their versatile and suffocating defense that drove the Dubs to 67 wins and an NBA title. Pace and space is a great concept, until your stretch four is getting smoked on the perimeter and your “rim protector” is getting dunked on (See: Mirotic, Nikola and Gasol, Pau).

I’m going to pick on the Bulls for another minute because I watch most of their games and I still can’t believe Charlotte hung 130 on them Tuesday night. Chicago scored 105 in that game, something they did 29 times in 2014-15. Last season, under Tom Thibodeaux, the Bulls went 24-5 in games in which they scored at least 105 points, winning those 24 games by an average of 11 points. They never lost by more than 11 when scoring that much, and in fact all season only allowed 130+ once, in a double overtime loss to the Mavericks. After kicking Thibs to the curb, the Bulls’ brain trust took major steps to Warriorize the team, bringing in Fred Hoiberg to install his pace-and-space, three point-heavy system. Hoiberg immediately moved Joakim Noah to the bench and is using stretch lineups with more shooters on the floor, such as Doug McDermott, Nikola Mirotic and Aaron Brooks. In a vacuum, this all makes perfect sense for a plodding offensive team looking to change its ways.

But the Bulls, and others such as the Pacers, Mavericks, Pelicans and even the Thunder, are missing the forest for the trees. There is a foundational dilemma at the heart of the small-ball revolution. How do you score in bunches, push the pace and create matchup nightmares for opponents on one end, while not becoming a sieve on the other end? Is it possible to gain the upper hand in matchups on both ends and blow teams out of the gym? If you’ve constructed a roster like the Warriors, then yes and yes. The LeBron-era Heat and the 2013-14 Spurs also proved the model. Teams that are playing small for small’s sake and not emphasizing the defensive end are setting themselves up for some ugly nights. Like when you give up 130 to Charlotte, those kind of nights. The Spurs were able to surround Tim Duncan’s rim protection with three or four deadly shooters. The Heatles had LeBron, Wade and Bosh in their primes and featured a trapping, frenzied defensive scheme that made up for lack of size in the middle.

Golden State works because they can go small or big, while always rolling out lineups that can switch screens, protect the rim and force turnovers. They have Draymond Green and nobody else does. He can cover quick guards for stretches on the perimeter, switch any screen and as he showed against Zach Randolph in the Warriors’ 50-point demolition of Memphis, he can body up almost any big. His unique talents combined with the rim protection and rebounding of Andrew Bogut allows Golden State to go small or super-small and never give up much defensive integrity in the paint. Klay Thompson, Harrison Barnes and Andre Iguodala are swiss-army knives on the perimeter that can switch to big men without allowing easy buckets. Throw all of this together with their shooting and running ability. The result is a championship-proven monolith that may not be replicable. The Warriors have set a standard that is not statistically attainable. Here are some Warriors numbers from last season to go with the offensive ranks listed above: 1st in opponent’s field goal percentage (.428), 1st in defensive rating, 1st in margin of victory, 2nd in blocks, 4th in steals, 5th in opponent’s turnovers, 6th in rebounding. Dear Lord.

Good luck matching that with Mirotic and Gasol playing more minutes than Noah and Taj Gibson. Or with Paul George at the four, next to Ian Mahinmi. Or with Enes Kanter taking minutes from Steven Adams.

OKC and Chicago are breaking in first-year coaches, and the season is very young. They may well figure out the right mix of minutes, tempo and defensive strategies. But they don’t have – and no one does – the roster versatility on both ends that Golden State has. They’d be well served to do like the rest of us: simply watch the Warriors in awe and try to make their own way.

Has Anyone Ever Seen Fred Hoiberg and Marc Trestman in the Same Room at the Same Time?

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Trestberg

Really makes you think. The Bulls gave up 130 points tonight to the immortal Charlotte Hornets. Not quite as bad as the Bears losing 55-14 to the Packers, but it’s eerily similar to the “sacrifice defense for modern offense” routine that Chicago fans are all too familiar with after Trestman’s failed reign.

Maybe Trestman ditched the glasses, put on a suit and tricked John Paxson into making him the new Bulls coach? It’s admittedly far-fetched, but I mean his day job with the 2-6 Ravens can’t be all that demanding.

(For the record I was all for both the Trestman and Hoiberg hires because, well, I don’t know, I’m an idiot? Or I was sick of watching terrible offense and unwisely took stout defense for granted? Let’s go with that. There’s still hope for Hoiberg obviously, but I’m officially a little nervous. Also: D-Rose held under 10 points for three straight games? Make that terribly nervous.)

What We Might Know After a Week (Eastern Conference)

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What might we know after a week of NBA games? After looking at some data…maybe, probably nothing. But we can look at what last year’s standings were after each team played three games, and where that jived with or diverted from final standings. After waiting breathlessly all offseason for NBA action and eager to understand the league power structure, I crave context. I posted the Western Conference breakdown earlier. Now moving on to the Eastern Conference.

Anyone who follows the NBA with any real enthusiasm knows one simple truth: the Eastern Conference is inferior to its Western counterpart. It’s been that way for most of the 21st century. Some day I will do an investigation into why this phenomenon exists. But for now, just take comfort in the fact that the status quo has not changed. There’s one constant in this ever-changing world.

While the West has three winless teams in Houston, New Orleans, and Los Angeles (Lakers), the first two still have very real playoff aspirations after their bad start. Middle of the pack teams such as Phoenix, Denver, Sacramento and Utah all pack a punch. And the top of the West is much stronger than the top of the East. So the top, middle and bottom of the West is looking to be superior. To further illustrate the point, in this admittedly early stage of the NBA season, there are six winless East teams – Milwaukee, Philly, Indiana, Charlotte, Orlando and Brooklyn.

Detroit is a pleasant surprise at 3-0, and the Raptors have also jumped out to an undefeated start. Chicago and Atlanta have each played four games and sit at 3-1, while Miami, Washington and Cleveland all look very good. Here’s a look at the standings early on:

  Team W L
1 Raptors 3 0
1 Pistons 3 0
3 Bulls 3 1
3 Hawks 3 1
5 Cavaliers 2 1
5 Knicks 2 1
5 Heat 2 1
8 Wizards 2 1
9 Celtics 1 2
10 76ers 0 2
10 Bucks 0 3
10 Pacers 0 3
10 Hornets 0 3
10 Magic 0 3
10 Nets 0 3

Here’s a look at where the East stood after three games last season, and the final conference standings:

14-’15 Team W L   Final Standings W L
1 Heat 3 0 1 Hawks 60 22
2 Bulls 2 1 2 Cavaliers 53 29
2 Wizards 2 1 3 Bulls 50 32
2 Raptors 2 1 4 Raptors 49 33
2 Knicks 2 1 5 Wizards 46 36
2 Nets 2 1 6 Bucks 41 41
7 Cavaliers 1 2 7 Celtics 40 42
7 Bucks 1 2 8 Nets 38 44
9 Celtics 1 2 8 Pacers 38 44
9 Pacers 1 2 10 Heat 37 45
9 Hawks 1 2 11 Hornets 33 49
9 Hornets 1 2 12 Pistons 32 50
13 Pistons 0 3 13 Magic 25 57
13 76ers 0 3 14 76ers 18 64
13 Magic 0 3 15 Knicks 17 65

The East was weird last year, as the Heat adjusted to life after LeBron and eventually were done in by health issues. The Knicks fell off a cliff, winning only 15 more games after their 2-1 start. The Cavs struggled near .500 before the LeBattical and Timofey Mozgov/J.R. Smith/Iman Shumpert acquisitions, finishing the season 35-15 over the last four months. Meanwhile the Atlanta Hawks became nearly unbeatable for three months, going 38-6 from December through February.

Looking at the first week of this season, there are only two teams that really stand out as surprises – the Pistons and Bucks. These two Central division teams are headed in different directions through three games. Detroit has reshaped its roster and approach to the game. A question mark coming into the season was their defense, but they are winning with stellar performances on that side of the court, anchored by Andre Drummond blocking/changing shots in the paint. The Pistons are winning while shooting just 39 percent (28th in NBA) and ranking 21st in points per game. But they’re fourth in opponent’s points per game and are holding teams to just 28 percent from beyond the arc.

If the Pistons join the Heat in making the playoffs in the East this year, that means at least two teams that made it last year will fall to the Lottery. The Nets will be one of those teams. The other, it pains me to say, could be the Bucks. A chic pick to make a leap by people like me (I gushed about them in this NBA Risers column), the Bucks are struggling to find their way. They clearly miss cagey veterans like Zaza Pachulia and Jared Dudley, while Giannis missed a game and Jabari Parker hasn’t played yet (he’s cleared to play as of this writing). Meanwhile the addition of Greg Monroe, while it has great potential, has disrupted the chemistry. The Bucks are also testing conventional wisdom by starting a point guard that can’t shoot, in Michael Carter-Williams. He’s shooting a gross 27 percent from three.

The good news for Milwaukee, besides Jabari returning to the lineup? There are 79 games left, and they play in the East. The Rockets and Pelicans are envious.

NBA Season Tips Off – Up & Down (New Feature)

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The season is underway and there are some early (very early) surprises. Up & Down will look at how teams are performing against expectations. We’re trying really hard not to overreact to 1 or 2 games, but not making any promises.

We’re two days into the 2015-16 NBA season, I haven’t stopped drooling and I can only blame the dog for so long.

But what a start! One of the most blah games on the slate last night turned out to be an emotional, Rubio-tastic barnburner that saw Minnesota outlast the Lakers in L.A. 113-112. That was the capper on a 14-game evening that saw some teams laugh at the prognosticators with unexpected winning debuts, while others played like they think the season starts next week. Here’s a look at the teams that have looked the best and the worst to start this season.

Who’s Up

Nuggets – If you say you expected a 20-point win in Houston you’re either lying or you have a Delorean and we need to talk about some daily fantasy lineups. The new-look Nuggets were very impressive, especially rookie Emmanuel Mudiay (17 points, 9 assists) and Danilo Gallinari (23 points, 8 rebounds). Gallo showed up to camp in great shape and looked spry in his return from injury. Mudiay had 11 turnovers, to be expected for a rookie point guard. What was unexpected was his stroke from outside. In a night where many rookies shined, he may have been the brightest.

Bulls – Da Bulls are off to a 2-0 start after topping the Cavs on Tuesday and avoided a hangover to win the next night at Brooklyn. Under Fred Hoiberg, the Bulls are leveraging their deep roster and spreading around minutes, while showing an emphasis on ball movement offensively. No longer are the Bulls stagnating with one on ones and forcing shots at the end of the shot clock. The defense may be sacrificed somewhat, but Bulls brass and many fans have clamored for years for imaginative offense and fewer minutes for star players and they’re getting it so far. Jimmy Butler and Derrick Rose look good, and Nikola Mirotic has been much improved so far.

Pistons – Our other 2-0 team in the East, to the surprise of many so far. The Pistons were a mess last year before Stan Van Gundy arrived. SVG reshaped the roster, letting Josh Smith and Greg Monroe go and bringing in Reggie Jackson. The result so far is a more potent offense centered around Jackson-Andre Drummond pick-and-rolls and outside shooting from Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and rookie Stanley Johnson. Drummond grabbed 19 boards against the Hawks and has four blocks in two games. He looks to be taking the next step toward being an absolute monster on the block, inspiring hope in the Motor City for a playoff spot for the first time in half a decade.

Knicks – Holy Kristaps! The Knicks and their big rookie blitzed the Bucks in the opener, 122-97. As bad as they were last year, the Knicks quietly made some nice moves in the offseason. The Zen Master added real NBA players like Robin Lopez, Kyle O’Quinn and Derrick Williams, the latter surprised an out-of-nowhere 24 point debut. If Porzingis is the real deal, things will be looking up in the Big Apple. The fact they destroyed the Bucks on a poor shooting night from Carmelo is all the more impressive.

Mavericks – I expected – and still sort of expect – a big swoon this year from Dallas. They just have so little depth on paper and are relying on old and/or injury-hampered guys in so many key spots. But I was reminded once again last night the dangers of doubting Rick Carlisle and Dirk. The Mavs are committing to Carlisle long term, a genius move, even if they will more or less be starting from scratch in the near future player personnel-wise. Carlisle is a top schemer on both ends and can develop players with the best of them. The 8-seed may not be a dream if the right guys stay healthy.

Trail Blazers – They did it against a banged-up Pelicans team traveling on a back-to-back, but that doesn’t diminish a stellar debut. Portland rolled to a 112-94 victory behind CJ McCollum’s career game. The guard scored 37 points, 28 in a 70-point first half for Portland. With four new starters and the loss of Lamarcus Aldridge, Robin Lopez and Nic Batum, Portland still figures to fall out of the playoff picture. But their games will be high-scoring affairs if McCollum’s rise is real, as he and Damian Lillard will light up scoreboards while having trouble defending opposing backcourts. Nice job by another great coach in this league, Terry Stotts.

Timberwolves – I saw a great tweet last night by AP Writer Jon Krawczynski, who tweeted “No way Flip was letting that go in”, in reference to Lou Williams’ last-second floater that rimmed out at the buzzer in Minnesota’s 112-111 win over the Lakers. The late, great Flip Saunders left Minny set up wonderfully for the future. Ricky Rubio torched the much-maligned Lakers defense for a career-high 28 points to go with 14 dimes, while first overall pick Karl-Anthony Towns (14 points, 12 boards) looked like a star in the making. That post-up fadeaway shot he displayed last night made him look like a 10-year vet. Add to that last season’s Rookie of the Year Andrew Wiggins, and the future is bright for Flip’s crew.

Who’s Down?

Pelicans – Yikes. Once players started dropping like flies in the preseason, expectations began falling for this team, at least in the early going. But many predicted that Anthony Davis’ sheer brilliance would carry this team to the top half of the West. It’s only two games in, but what we might be learning is that today’s NBA – and especially the West – is just too stocked with talent for one player to make a winner out of a franchise. There’s no denying Davis’ greatness and their season started against the champion Warriors at Oracle on their ring ceremony night. So let’s pump the brakes…they were never going to win game 1. However, my eyebrows raised a bit last night, when they got throttled in Portland. The Pels’ defense was hoping to be much-improved from last year, when they were 22nd in defensive rating. They hired guru Darren Erman to run the defense but they didn’t envision allowing 70 points in the first half to a middling (on paper) Portland team. I’m confident things will get ironed out and guys will get healthy but this is about as bad a start as they could’ve had, aside from a Davis injury.

Rockets – What the hell was that, man? I’m a huge supporter of this Rockets team after they showed grit and mettle in last year’s postseason and added Ty Lawson to an already loaded roster. I talked myself into them potentially leading the league in wins this year, drafting them high in my win totals fantasy league. For them to come out and lay a complete egg on opening night, at home, has me taken aback and smdh. (This is the part where I remind myself it was only one game. 81 more of these babies). OK. Thinking positively now. They were without Dwight Howard (suspended), who would have prevented such easy access to the cup for Gallinari and fortified the defensive end. Harden is pretty fresh off a Kardashian summer and still has some of that stink on him. Lawson will take some time to mesh with this group. And Clint Capela looks like a potential stud. I feel a little better now. I just really hope this isn’t the team we get every year that spent the offseason getting pumped up by their own press clippings and hype only to have all that air fly out of the balloon. Of course, that team could be…

Bucks – ….the Bucks. They impressed and genuinely scared me last year in the first round against my Bulls. Their length, versatility and irritating defense mixed with their youth made them a bandwagon pick to make a leap this year. They added Greg Monroe, and he played well enough last night. The idea is he provides a reliable post scoring threat, but I wonder if he slows down their pace too much and hampers their frantic switching defense. Monroe isn’t jumping out to guard a wing or provide much help-side rim protection in a fast-paced game. This may just take some time – and I believe in Jason Kidd’s coaching – but my eyebrow’s raised.

Suns – This was always a season that could go one or two ways for the Suns. Of all the teams out there, Phoenix had the most variance in win total projections. If the unorthodox pieces didn’t fit, Jeff Hornacek continues regressing and Markieff Morris loses his mind, they are going in the tank. But if they jelled and played more like the Suns of two years ago they could contend for a playoff spot. After last  night’s home stinker against Dallas, we are on a path to the former, maybe sooner than we expected possible. A couple teams with playoff hopes have to be bad in the West, and I’d bet on PHX over New Orleans for sure.

Grizzlies – I love Memphis and their style of play, and still think they’ll be the sixth seed out West. There is potential for this to be the year their old school grit n grind game fails them and their lack of scoring punch becomes too much to overcome. The Cavs are a tough early season opponent, to be sure. But losing by 30 while putting up just 76 points at home is a bad, bad look. Let’s hope this was an aberration.

The Denny Green Division “They are who we thought they were!” (at least through 1 game)

Kings – Nice comeback to make the Clippers sweat last night, but they imploded late and we had a nice Boogie Cousins meltdown on the bench in the final minutes. Sounds about right.

Cavs – Tough road loss at Chicago, then a dominant performance over Memphis. They will be great.

Warriors – Just watchin’ the throne…

Celtics – Well-coached. Strong defensively. Going to beat the bad teams (like Philly).

Heat – Great to see Chris Bosh back and good as ever. Same with D Wade. And look out for Justise Winslow, steal of the draft.

Thunder – Great win over San Antonio. They will compete for the top seed. KD and Russ are on a mission. Dion Waiters looking competent was the only surprise.

Spurs – Aldridge (just 11 points) will take time to learn the Spurs Way, as predicted. Played the Thunder tough, they will be fine.

Clippers – Someone tell Boogie that the Clips like to run Chris Paul-DeAndre Jordan alley-oops. He may be the last man on Earth that doesn’t know.

Here’s to a Happy, HEALTHY NBA Season

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The NBA season kicks off in two nights. WOOOOOHOOOOOO!!

//giphy.com/embed/l41lVSySRf15JgBkA?html5=true

via GIPHY

Now, before we get too excited, I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention the horrible news that broke today that long time NBA head coach Flip Saunders passed away Sunday after a battle with cancer. This is devastating news, and my heart goes out to Saunders’ family, the Minnesota Timberwolves organization and the NBA at large. Saunders was a great ambassador for the NBA and one of its top coaches. By all accounts he was an even greater man. He will be missed dearly.

The NBA that Saunders leaves behind is in great shape. There are more superstars and top flight teams in the league than perhaps anytime in the last 30 years. There are storylines galore. How will first year college to pro coaches – Fred Hoiberg (Bulls) and Billy Donovan (Thunder) – fare after taking over contenders? Can Anthony Davis make the expected leap to league’s best player sooner than later? Can the champion Warriors prove last year wasn’t a fluke? Will the small-ball revolution continue and teams trend closer toward positionless basketball? How will Kevin Durant’s comeback-from-injury tour unfold? And for that matter, Paul George’s?

Speaking of injuries, the worst trend in recent NBA seasons has been the amount of time missed by hobbled star players. The following sample reads like a USA Basketball practice roster: Durant, George, Derrick Rose, Kevin Love, Kobe Bryant, Dwight Howard, Carmelo Anthony, Amare Stoudemire. All of these guys have missed significant game time or whole seasons since 2012. Last season could have been an all-timer in terms of basketball greatness, yet by the end of the playoffs we were so marred by injury that teams were a shell of themselves. Look, injuries are always going to factor into an 82-game season with two months of postseason play; and the team with the most injury luck is normally the last team standing in June. But last season got ridiculous.

It’s why the Warriors are (unfairly in my opinion) having to defend their title verbally before the season even starts. Golden State won a historic 67 games, had the League MVP and more or less rolled through the playoffs, but teams and pundits are still chirping that their championship win was due more to other contenders in their path being decimated by injury. In the Finals, the Cavs were without Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving. The Rockets lost Pat Beverley and had a hobbled Howard in the Western Conference Finals. After going up 2-1 on the Warriors in the second round, the Grizzlies’ backcourt became dinged up.

I’m not taking anything away from the Warriors. That’s nonsense. But I can’t deny that the level of play goes down considerably with all this attrition. And the basketball watching public suffers. This year, the Pelicans are already a basketball MASH unit, which will put considerable strain on Davis. Please, Brow, please stay healthy.

I read a lot of NBA coverage and listen to a ton of podcasts – I love prognostication.  One thing you learn quickly is in any season previews or playoff predictions, the words “If they stay healthy” or “With all things being equal” has to be mentioned constantly. If Durant and Serge Ibaka stay healthy, OKC could win 65 games. If Rose stays healthy the Bulls could get the 1 seed. See what I mean?

Teams recognize this as a huge issue, as does the top NBA brass. You’re seeing teams invest in new wave training staffs and sending players to sports science organizations like P3 in Los Angeles during the offseason. Commissioner Adam Silver is working on ways to eliminate back to backs and four games in five nights, while someday we may see fewer games with more rest in between. Whatever it takes, I’m for it. Because only injuries and hack-a-thons can take away from what should be an awesome 2015-16 season. It’s time to get fired up.

The season starts Tuesday with three great matchups. Here’s a brief look:

Cleveland @ Chicago (TNT) – 7 p.m.

Oh yeah, baby. This is the stuff I’ve been waiting for since June. As a Bulls fan, I’m cautiously optimistic about the Fred Hoiberg era. Rose will be in the lineup after his broken orbital bone injury, and LeBron will also play after his preseason back injection. No Iman Shumpert or Kyrie though, already out with injuries. Sigh. At least the King and D-Rose will be out there. I like the Bulls to get Hoiberg a win in his first regular season game.

Detroit @ Atlanta – 7 p.m.

This may not intrigue casual fans, but I’m very interested. The only thing casual about me is my wardrobe, son… /adjusts basketball shorts. Stan Van Gundy is reshaping the Pistons with one big in the middle (Andre Drummond) and four shooters on the outside. They should play faster and be much harder to deal with defensively. Atlanta won 60 games last year and lost Demarre Carroll to free agency, but signed Tiago Splitter and return with a chip on their shoulder. Nobody thinks they can be as good this year, that last year was an aberration. Time to prove doubters wrong. I like them to start out 1-0.

New Orleans @ Golden State (TNT) – 9:30 p.m.

A rematch of last year’s first round playoff series, which the Warriors swept. This game looked a lot better when the schedule first came out. But as mentioned, New Orleans is banged up badly. They could be without Tyreke Evans, Norris Cole, Quincy Pondexter, Omer Asik, Alexis Ajinca, and Jrue Holiday will be on a minutes limit. Meanwhile the Champs are healthy, playing at home and have haters to quiet. I like the Warriors big.

Here we go. Let’s be careful out there NBA teams. May your injury reports be short and your medical staff be bored.

On Derrick Rose, Disappointment and a City Turning on Its Own

~ dnathanfati ~ 5 Comments
Not again
Not again

I was listening to “Waddle & Silvy” on ESPNChicago this afternoon and it was stated that 6 months of Derrick Rose storylines have been crammed into two days. I thought that was a very accurate overview, and as we’ve gotten accustomed to, each of these D-Rose storylines are bad ones. For clarity, let’s list them all out and tackle each storyline below.

  • Negative Storyline #1 – Rose is facing a sexual assault lawsuit in California
  • Negative Storyline #2 – Rose starts out Media Day by announcing that he’s already looking ahead two years to when he can get paid in free agency, basically unprompted
  • Negative Storyline #3 – A Rose-fatigued city is further alienated from its once-favorite Son, thanks to his own words and his horrible advisors
  • Negative Storyline #4 – Many “Rose is just not good with that talking stuff” hot takes, some that dangerously come close to calling the guy stupid
  • Negative Storyline #5 – In the team’s first practice after the free agency comment, Derrick Rose took an elbow and BROKE HIS FACE!

I’m going to bounce around here some, but I choose to start by addressing the last bullet, as to me it is by far the most pressing concern facing this Bulls team. Rose’s shattered orbital bone, while some reports suggest he’ll only be out two weeks, could be a big wrench in the hopeful Bulls’ plans. First and foremost, the injury is a traumatic one that has to mess with a slashing guard’s psyche and confidence at least for the near term. Second, the timing of it couldn’t be much worse.

New coach Fred Hoiberg is overhauling the whole style of Bulls basketball. The hope is that the Bulls will become an offensive juggernaut, while not sacrificing much of their well-known stout defense. Under Tom Thibodeaux the Bulls struggled to score points (ranked 29th, 30th and 15th last three seasons) and hit three-pointers (29th, 26th, 15th). In addition to the numbers, the eye test showed that many possessions bogged down after multiple pick and rolls went nowhere and the offense resorted to a late shot clock heave. This was especially the case in the playoffs, when defenses are stouter. Under Thibodeaux any time a solid defensive team had a chance to scout during a seven game series, the Bulls’ offense ground to a halt. This is precisely why, from a basketball standpoint at least, Hoiberg was brought in. His teams at Iowa State never ranked lower than #11 in offensive efficiency, as they pushed the pace routinely after defensive rebounds and utilized early-action screens up top while big men played off the block to open up the lane. Iowa State also ranked in the top 15% of Division I teams in threes attempted last season.

All of this is a huge departure from what the Bulls did offensively under Thibodeaux, meaning this training camp is more important to the Bulls than any in recent memory. There will be a major learning curve. How will Pau Gasol, Joakim Noah and Taj Gibson adjust to playing much less back-to-the-basket, low-block offense? Will the wings take time learning to push and push and push some more after misses? Most importantly, how will the primary ball handling duties be divvied up between Jimmy Butler and Rose? There have already been questions about the two guards’ chemistry, a partnership that will be tantamount to making this offense hum. There are valid concerns about how well Rose and Butler mesh. I ranked them #2 in my backcourt rankings but the more I think about it, it feels like even more of a homer pick than I first admitted. Rose shined his brightest before Butler played any real minutes in the NBA. Then the injuries happened and Butler shined without Rose. Together for really the first time last season, their grade can only be an incomplete. Butler tended to shoot better from distance with Rose demanding defensive attention but Butler’s attacking numbers fell as he sometimes was relegated to a spot up shooter. There were some awkward crunch time moments when neither guy seemed sure who the alpha was, usually with Rose winding up with the final shot. Training camp is the ideal place to work these things out and build the framework for success when it counts. Now with Rose missing most of camp, he will once again be playing catch up while others pick up the slack early on. And for the love of God I just can’t stomach many more Kirk Hinrich bricks.

Storylines #1-4

Onto a more serious off-court storyline, the sexual assault lawsuit that has been following Rose around for the past month or so. The little bit of detail that I read about is pretty horrible and if true, he has much bigger problems to deal with than a broken face and he shouldn’t even be playing. However, I like to reserve judgment on these kinds of things, because someone calling you a rapist and demanding money doesn’t alone make one a rapist. There haven’t been criminal charges and in general I think the media has done a good job of letting the courts work through this without spouting unfounded conjecture. Even if completely innocent, this is an embarrassing  accusation for Rose. And I think that played into the free agency storyline. He was asked about the lawsuit on Media Day, and in his answer, he started talking about all the money his peers have been making this summer in free agency and how he’s looking forward to getting his in two years. This is the comment that started up the Derrick Detractors Demolition Derby in Chicago and nationwide.

Let’s break it down. To me, he is obviously uncomfortable in front of a microphone and cameras to begin with; and on top of that the lawsuit question made him nervous and he jumped to something off topic in the free agency / money comments. Now he’s definitely at fault here, because he obviously had those comments chambered and had been thinking about it all summer when he saw guys like Enes Kanter get $70M contracts. It’s like when your mom would question you about where you were the night before past curfew, and you stutter and fumble around for an answer before changing the subject to the A you got on your last history exam. The problem is the subject Rose jumped to is not one anybody who follows the NBA wants to hear about from him. He had a blank in his chamber, and it got him into much more of a mess than if he had just given an awkward answer to the original question.

Which leads to the final couple points here. A player can be terrible at interviews and awkward with the media and even say dumb things, without being a dumb person. Derrick isn’t Isaac Newton, but I do not consider him dumb. I can’t imagine coming up the way he did in Englewood, on Chicago’s South Side. I’m from the Chicago ‘burbs, a completely different world. But to choose the legal route and pursue basketball dreams in an effort to pull himself out of that situation and bring his family and friends along with him takes personal commitment, character and yes, smarts.

Beyond his basketball skills, it was his story that enamored his fellow Chicagoans with him. Chicago prides itself on blue collar loyalty, and Derrick seemed to embody that, winning high school titles at Simeon, taking his Memphis team to the NCAA title and then coming home as the Bulls’ #1 draft pick. Immediately he got the city excited again about Bulls basketball and won the Rookie of the Year, then two years later the MVP, and he suddenly owned a city whose skyscrapers he once looked at from afar in the rough and forgotten slums of Englewood. We all know what happened next, his first real taste of basketball adversity in the playoffs against Philly, when he blew out his ACL. The arguments on when he was cleared to play but didn’t come back in are tired and stale so I won’t go back down that road, but that was the first time Chicago turned on its hometown hero. It wouldn’t be the last. Only Derrick knows how that’s affected him, but it’s been one thing after another since the initial injury while the bandwagon continues to shrink. The real sad thing about his fall from grace with Chicago is that your average Grabowsky (middle-aged, middle-class, white Chicago male) would probably cross the street in fear if he saw a 17-year old Englewood version of Derrick Rose walking down the sidewalk, yet that same guy sees an MVP D-Rose crowned at the United Center and claims a part of that glory for himself since they’re ostensibly from the same city. Should we be surprised by how quickly Grabowsky shuns the ghetto kid once he doesn’t live up to the standards we’ve set for him? Sadly, I guess we’ve learned the answer to that. Listen, I love Chicago, it’s my favorite city on Earth. But Chicago is more overtly racist than many places in Texas (where I live now) and whole swaths of that city (read: the poor parts) have been left for dead amidst drug gangs, violence and a general ambivalence from the wider population. I’ve gone on a tangent here, but trust me I’ve heard nasty things said in Chicago about Rose and people of his background, and even though I think Derrick deserves a ton of blame for this whole circus, I want to shed a light on some of the unfortunate hypocrisy and hatred going on in the Chi.

Man. The season hasn’t even started yet and I’m already depressed. Let’s go out on a high note with this clip of D Rose finding some of his old magic in last year’s playoffs. I wonder how many of the Grabowsky’s calling for Rose’s head today were jumping and cheering after this shot banked in just four short months ago…

https://youtu.be/7GJkIjXrCn0

Get well soon, Derrick.

Taking My Temperature on the ESPN Summer Forecast

~ dnathanfati ~ 2 Comments

Recently, ESPN put out its “Summer Forecast” rankings, based on a survey of their NBA experts’ thoughts on 2015-16 team win totals. Since it’s Labor Day weekend and we’re still nearly two months from the start of the season, I figured I’d take a look and comment on these rankings. Below are my thoughts for each team’s projected win total, followed by a forecast of my own.

 EASTERN CONFERENCE

  1. Cleveland Cavaliers

Proj. record: 59-23

Last season: 53-29

This is low. Like everyone else in the world, I have Cleveland winning the East, but anything under 60 wins would really shock me. Even with Kyrie missing time, the Cavs have made enough improvements in the offseason and the team jelled in the playoff run.

  1. Chicago Bulls

Proj. record: 50-32

Last season: 50-32

This is the safe bet, factoring in the unknown that is Head Coach Fred Hoiberg. But this team has done it before and with a jolt on the offensive end, 50 wins will be a disappointment. I like Chicago for 2nd in the East, but it will take 53-55 wins to do so.

  1. Atlanta Hawks

Proj. record: 50-32

Last season: 60-22

I’m a bit lost on this team. I still don’t know how they won 60 last year, and DeMarre Carroll’s loss will be felt, but not sure he is worth 10 wins. However, some of the bloom is off the rose with the players that are left I feel, so I’m predicting an even more precipitous drop.

  1. Miami Heat

Proj. record: 47-35

Last season: 37-45

I’m predicting more than 47 wins from Miami, as they will be one of the bigger turnaround teams this season. Health won’t be perfect, but a killer starting 5 and great coach in Eric Spoelstra gets them close to 50 wins.

  1. Washington Wizards

Proj. record: 46-36

Last season: 46-36

The Wizards were impressive last year but their 2015-16 success hinges on a few key items: Jared Dudley and Otto Porter replacing Paul Pierce’s production and veteran leadership, Bradley Beal and John Wall staying healthy enough to become a top 3 backcourt and Randy Wittman staying out of his own way. 46 wins feels about right but could swing based on those factors.

  1. Toronto Raptors

Proj. record: 44-38

Last season: 49-33

The Raptors played like crap in the playoffs. But they should get a healthier Kyle Lowry and added Carroll to give them more lineup versatility.. I’m guessing they finish a bit closer to last year’s totals. Playoff performance will be a whole other conversation.

  1. Milwaukee Bucks

Proj. record: 44-38

Last season: 41-41

I love the Bucks this year, see my NBA Risers column for more detail. A healthy Jabari Parker and addition of Greg Monroe should lead to 44-45 wins.

  1. Boston Celtics

Proj. record: 40-42

Last season: 40-42

People always talk about Brad Stevens when they talk Celtics. Having a great coach goes a long way and I admire Stevens’ work, but at the end of the day you need stars if you want to be a factor in the NBA. The 8-seed feels like their ceiling, right around 40 wins.

  1. Indiana Pacers

Proj. record: 39-43

Last season: 38-44

Indiana’s fate will be tied to Paul George. If he returns to even 90% of what he was two years ago, Indiana could nab a 7 or 8 seed. I’m not a fan of the rest of their roster, aside from George Hill and PG-13’s leg makes me nervous. I’m taking the under here.

  1. Charlotte Hornets

Proj. record: 35-47

Last season: 33-49

The Hornets ridded themselves of Lance Stephenson and stuck to their guns on drafting Frank Kaminsky, when Justise Winslow was unexpectedly available. I like the first move, hate the second. More mediocrity for MJ’s crew, 35 wins feels fair.

  1. Detroit Pistons

Proj. record: 35-47

Last season: 32-50

I’m going to pick Detroit to finish closer to 40 wins after some roster turnover and a training camp under SVG. This team will play together offensively, while Andre Drummond takes another leap on both ends.

  1. Brooklyn Nets

Proj. record: 30-52

Last season: 38-44

Brooklyn got rid of the disappointing Deron Williams and his huge cap hit. They also didn’t do much to get better, in an offseason with their hands tied due to irresponsible Russian rain-making the last few years. This feels high, which is sad.

  1. Orlando Magic

Proj. record: 30-52

Last season: 25-57

I really like the Magic roster and new coach Scott Skiles will bring a new energy. I think they improve by 10 wins and next season fight for a playoff spot.

  1. New York Knicks

Proj. record: 25-57

Last season: 17-65

An 8-win improvement seems high to me. Even with a healthy Carmelo they top out at 22 wins in an improved East. Wouldn’t be surprised to see Carmelo traded by February.

  1. Philadelphia 76ers

Proj. record: 19-63

Last season: 18-64

Philly has some players now after so many high draft picks, but their still raw, and the team is missing an identity. Again, with an improved East, this win total may be high which is really, really sad.

 WESTERN CONFERENCE 

  1. Golden State Warriors

Proj. record: 60-22

Last season: 67-15

The champs stood pat this offseason except for shipping out David Lee, which will give them a little flexibility to add to their already insane depth. I understand you can’t forecast 67 wins since it’s an all-time number, but I also don’t see them dropping off 7 wins from last year. They’re too good and every game (plus homecourt) matters in the West.

  1. San Antonio Spurs

Proj. record: 57-25

Last season: 55-27

This feels right. They will be awesome, but will take time to find their rhythm with the new pieces. Manu Ginobili is not the player he once was and they lost a lot of shooting and perimeter depth this offseason.

  1. Houston Rockets

Proj. record: 56-26

Last season: 56-26

Houston is absolutely stacked on paper. If Ty Lawson and James Harden figure out an efficient way to share the scoring load, look out. They could approach 60 wins, so I’m taking the over.

  1. Los Angeles Clippers

Proj. record: 56-26

Last season: 56-26

Another team that made some nice moves and got better this offseason. They will also need time to jell, but Pierce, Lance Stephenson and Josh Smith are complementary pieces, so I expect them to hit their stride quicker than the Spurs, who are integrating a star in LaMarcus Aldridge. I’ll take them to outperform this projection.

  1. Oklahoma City Thunder

Proj. record: 55-27

Last season: 45-37

Jeez the West is stacked. OKC could conceivably win the West, which would mean 60-plus wins. We are the real winners, getting to watch KD and Russ play together again. Will be interesting to see how Billy Donovan works out as an NBA coach, but I’ll bet a few extra wins on him.

  1. Memphis Grizzlies

Proj. record: 51-31

Last season: 55-27

Memphis does feel due for a downturn, but I’ve gotten burned by that thinking before. With the intensity which they play defense, they are a threat to win on any given night in the regular season. 52 wins is my guess.

  1. New Orleans Pelicans

Proj. record: 47-35

Last season: 45-37

This is where things get really interesting in the West seeding. The team they’ve put around Anthony Davis is weird, and outside of Tyreke Evans I’m not sure where the consistent scoring will come from. However, Alvin Gentry should be counted on to make an impact on that end, and Davis is a monster, 45-47 seems more than doable.

  1. Dallas Mavericks

Proj. record: 41-41

Last season: 50-32

As a Dallas resident, I’m not a Mavs fan. But I’d still like to see them succeed so I can go to some intense late season and playoff games. But I don’t see them making the playoffs or even finishing .500. They’re counting on too many old guys and Wesley Matthews will need to be handled with care after an Achilles injury.

  1. Utah Jazz

Proj. record: 40-42

Last season: 38-44

This is the team I like to take the Blazers’ playoff spot. See NBA Risers for more color, I’ll just say I love the frontcourt of Derrick Favors and Rudy Gobert, they play great defense and the loss of Dante Exum – while it sucks – won’t hurt as much as one might expect. Trey Burke and Raul Neto can be serviceable – just feed the bigs and Gordon Hayward from the perimeter.

  1. Phoenix Suns

Proj. record: 35-47

Last season: 39-43

A super intriguing team. They are a huge wild card. Either Markieff Morris and all his drama lead this team into the tank, or they make a run at the 8-seed with an improved offense. Alex Len should be better, Tyson Chandler will anchor the defense and they have a plethora of perimeter weapons. I’m betting on an improvement and just missing the playoffs as the 9-seed.

  1. Portland Trail Blazers

Proj. record: 31-51

Last season: 51-31

This team was so great to watch the past two years, but they will fall off a cliff. 31 wins will be tough in the West, with really only Damian Lillard providing spark (and terrible defense).

  1. Sacramento Kings

Proj. record: 31-51

Last season: 29-53

I really enjoyed CBS Sports’ Zach Harper’s column on George Karl and Demarcus Cousins, and the potential to build a great offense regardless of the off court drama that has plagued the two. But the Kings need the turbulent Cousins, Rajon Rondo and Rudy Gay to click and not clash with a headstrong coach. That’s a bit too much to ask. Sacramento will struggle but 31 is attainable with the talent they have.

  1. Denver Nuggets

Proj. record: 27-55

Last season: 30-52

Really excited to watch Emmanuel Mudiay figure out the league. He will have his bumps, but will have the ball in his hands a ton and be asked to shoulder a major scoring load. That’s about all there is to watch in Denver this year. I’m taking the under.

  1. Los Angeles Lakers

Proj. record: 26-56

Last season: 21-61

If Kobe and Julius Randle play most of the season, and D’Angelo Russell lives up to the hype, these guys will at least have some entertainment value. They lack depth however, and Kobe’s body may just not be able to hold up anymore. I think they win 23 games, with some Vine-worthy moments mixed in.

  1. Minnesota Timberwolves

Proj. record: 24-58

Last season: 16-66

Their talented young core is exciting and the development of Karl Anthony Towns, Andrew Wiggins and Zach Lavine will make for good League Pass nights, but 24 wins is too much of a jump.

Down On The Block’s Forecast

Eastern Conference

  1. Cleveland Cavaliers – (61-21)
  2. Chicago Bulls – (55-27)
  3. Miami Heat – (50-32)
  4. Washington Wizards – (47-35)
  5. Atlanta Hawks – (46-36)
  6. Toronto Raptors – (45-37)
  7. Milwaukee Bucks – (45-37)
  8. Detroit Pistons – (40-42)
  9. Boston Celtics – (40-42)
  10. Charlotte Hornets – (37-45)
  11. Orlando Magic – (36-46)
  12. Indiana Pacers – (35-47)
  13. Brooklyn Nets – (25-57)
  14. New York Knicks – (22-60)
  15. Philadelphia 76ers – (19-63)

Western Conference

  1. Golden State Warriors (62-20)
  2. Houston Rockets (60-22)
  3. Oklahoma City Thunder (57-25)
  4. San Antonio Spurs – (55-27)
  5. Los Angeles Clippers – (54-28)
  6. Memphis Grizzlies – (52-30)
  7. New Orleans Pelicans – (47-35)
  8. Utah Jazz – (43-39)
  9. Phoenix Suns – (41-41)
  10. Dallas Mavericks – (40-42)
  11. Sacramento Kings – (31-48)
  12. Los Angeles Lakers – (23-59)
  13. Portland Trail Blazers – (23-59)
  14. Denver Nuggets – (20-62)
  15. Minnesota Timberwolves – (19-63)

A July Snapshot of the Association

~ dnathanfati ~ 1 Comment

The draft, free agency and Summer League have come and gone, and we are now entering the dog days of the NBA calendar. It’s this time of year that I love to speculate on where teams sit and critique roster-building plans. Below I’ve separated teams by rough groupings, to organize my thoughts about each squad’s place in the pecking order. I will be delving deeper into each of these categories in the days to come.

Contenders – teams that will be in the hunt in late May

Warriors – The Champs bring back just about everybody, while finding relief from David Lee’s monster cap hit. The talent, depth and versatility they bring to the table makes them favorites for a title defense, barring injury.

Spurs – A ridiculous offseason has the Spurs back in the championship race. It will be interesting to see how the new pieces fit and how LMA adapts to the Spurs’ pace. They could be devastating.

Rockets – I love what they did this offseason. Assuming Ty Lawson gets himself together, these guys are fast, deep and versatile in the mold of the Warriors. I like every player on their roster.

Thunder – With their stars back healthy the Thunder still have the best top three in the league. Can Enes Kanter contribute without killing an already suspect defense? Will Billy Donovan’s coaching provide a bump after the Scott Brooks era was finally put out of its misery? Most important will KD, Russ and Serge stay on the court?

Grizzlies – While the rest of the NBA zigs, they zag. Focus on controlling a slower pace and letting their bigs dominate has been fruitful for the Grizzlies and the addition of Brandan Wright is huge behind Marc Gasol. Can they solve the outside shooting issues that have prevented them from getting over the hump?

Cavaliers – They likely will breeze through the East with Dan Gilbert writing all those checks and LeBron in Year 2 of the Cavs reboot. David Blatt or Coach LeBron need to show Kevin some more love.

Bulls – The Mayor Freddie Hoiberg looks to change the culture, hopefully improving a stagnant offense and playing his guys sane minutes. Bulls are a fringe contender, I fully admit my homerism factored into putting them up in this tier.

Quasi-contenders – Teams that may have an inflated belief in their chances

Clippers – Doc GM has made some curious moves, but when all was said and done I actually like what they pulled off this summer. Lance Stephenson is better off the bench than in a star role, and the DeAndre coup was very necessary. Not to mention the Paul Pierce reunion.

Hawks – Setting out to prove it wasn’t a fluke last year. They won’t win 60+ games, but bring back a lot of talent. Can they replace DeMarre Carroll’s versatility?

Heat – One of the best starting 5’s in the NBA. Hoping for a Chris Bosh comeback tour after the scary blood clot and Hassan Whiteside to build on his breakout campaign. They will go as far as D-Wade’s knees take them.

Wizards – Very quiet offseason and the loss of Pierce hurts. But this is a solid team that needs a full year of John Wall and Bradley Beal holding down the backcourt together.

First round fodder – Should make the playoffs but don’t have enough to make noise

Mavericks – Did an OK job recovering from the DeAndre fiasco, but they’re old, lack depth and will be desperate for a Deron Williams renaissance that I’m not sure is possible.

Raptors – The Carroll addition was nice but they overpaid for Cory Joseph and lost Amir Johnson. I still have a  bad taste in my mouth over how they shriveled in the playoffs; Kyle Lowry needs to bounce back in a big way.

Hornets – MJ’s team seems perpetually fated to live in the middle. The Frank Kaminsky pick won’t make enough of an impact.

Celtics – A great coach and a roster full of solid role players is enough to make the playoffs in the East. Probably not enough to beat one of the top four in the first round.

Up-and-comers – My favorite group, teams that are building upon a talented foundation. May not make the playoffs but will be exciting to watch develop. Next post will be about this group, so will save my thoughts for that.

Pelicans

Bucks

Jazz

Suns

Magic

Timberwolves

Pistons

Going nowhere fast – Uggh

Kings – This team is what Judd Apatow’s ‘Trainwreck’ should have been about.

Nets – Just a depressing team trying to get out of bad salary hell.

Lakers – Waiting out Kobe’s contract while trying to develop D’Angelo Russell, Julius Randle and other young pieces.

Knicks – Carmelo’s career trajectory makes me sad. I loved watching him play for the Nuggets during my career at University of Colorado.

Nuggets – Speaking of, the Nuggets embody the fact that NBA teams can fall apart quickly. Doesn’t seem that long ago I was wearing my Anthony, Billups, Martin, Smith & Nene shirt.

Trail Blazers – Another sad NBA tale. This was a fun team last year that won 50 games and immediately lost 80% of their starting lineup to free agency.

Pacers – Have Paul George back at full strength will help, but their big man talent is nonexistent and I have visions of Monta Ellis jacking 30 shots in January while George and Frank Vogel shake their heads.

76ers – Please.

Malcolm’s 90s Player of the Week – Luc Longley Edition

~ dnathanfati ~ Leave a comment
Inspired by 2015’s dopest summer movie, “Dope”, Down on the Block will shout out a different player from the salad days of the 1990s each week.
Inspired by 2015’s dopest summer movie, “Dope”, Down on the Block will shout out a different player from the salad days of the 1990s each week.

This week’s entry…Luc Longley (1992-2001)

The Big Australian in his natural habitat on the block
The Big Australian in his natural habitat on the block.

The great Lucien James Longley was a big inspiration to me as a young Bulls fan living in a Chicago suburb as I worked on my own rugged white man post game. Luc shared the court with legends Michael Jordan, Scottie Pippen, Dennis Rodman and Steve Kerr, while playing for coaching guru Phil Jackson. It was easy to get lost in the shuffle. But the big man from Australia was integral to the Bulls success on the defensive end, and as a cog in the Triangle offense.

After being drafted by the Timberwolves #7 overall (and becoming the first Australian in the NBA, paving the way for Dante Exum), Longley came to Chicago in a trade for the current voice of the Bulls, Stacey King, who can be heard in all his glory in the video below.

Longley became the team’s starting center, won three NBA titles and averaged career highs of 11 points and 6 boards in the Bulls’ transcendent 1997-98 season. The 7’2″ monster was slow of foot but demanded a large berth in the post and was an underrated passer that could dish to his more well-known teammates cutting to the lane. Longley really created his legend in Chicago via his sharp Aussie wit. A particularly poignant example: after separating his shoulder body surfing with teammate Jud Buechler – who may have a future in this column – he claimed the injury was sustained while fighting a shark, who Longley said “was bigger than me – and better looking.” Longley missed two months, which I’m sure went over well with Jordan.

Post-Bulls, Longley’s career playing for the Suns and Knicks was decidedly less illustrious, highlighted by being stung twice by a scorpion (once on the ass) in his home in Phoenix while organizing his CD collection. Ahh the 90s, those halcyon days of compact discs. It was a simpler time.

I leave you with this video evidence of Luc Longley telling MJ and Pip “I got this” (not verbally, Luc lets his play do the talking) and putting the Bulls on his back in this glorious 16-point first quarter in Detroit in 1996. The future Hall of Famers could only stand aside and watch Lucien’s torrent of post game footwork and swift bucket-getting. Note the capable left hand, yeoman’s work on the offensive boards, slow but effective ball fakes and fundamentals at the line. “How’s Detroit going to stop Longley?” How, indeed.